According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic TDI price trend continued to rise in September. The average TDI market price at the beginning of the month was 17575 yuan/ton, and the average TDI price at the end of the month was 19600 yuan/ton. It rose 2025 yuan/ton in the month, an overall increase of 11.52%. As of September 29, the delivery of domestic goods with tickets is around 19700-19900 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is around 19900-20100 yuan/ton.

In September, the TDI market ran strongly, and prices rose widely in the month. At the beginning of the month, the trend of TDI continued to rise in August. The overseas supply was tight, and the market demand was strong. In addition, the domestic downstream demand was weak, and the deals were mostly purchased on demand. The focus of factory delivery shifted to the overseas market, and the domestic supply was limited. The market supply was tight, and the holders were reluctant to sell, and the TDI price rose at a high level; The factory was closed in the middle of the year, orders were not received in the late of the year, and maintenance plans were released. The suppliers were very price conscious, and the TDI market continued to rise; At the end of the month, the listed price of large factories in October was announced to rise, which again boosted the market mentality, and the TDI price rose.

The upstream toluene market was shocked and lowered, with the price at the end of the month at 7700 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month at 7730 yuan/ton, an overall drop of 0.39%. The price trend rose in the first ten days, the supply of toluene was tight, in addition, the gasoline rose actively in the peak season, the demand support remained, and the toluene market was operating at a high price; In the middle of the year, due to the impact of public health events in many places, the logistics and transportation are limited, the gasoline market is weak, the toluene market is light in trading and trading, and the price trend is downward; In the last ten days, the market rose first and then fell. Crude oil rebounded and gasoline rose slightly, which was good for the toluene market. However, the negotiations on the floor were weak. In addition, the price of toluene in East China was lowered by Sinopec.

According to the TDI data analyst of the business agency, many factories in China are limited in supply. The TDI market is tight in supply, and the supplier has a strong sentiment of price fixing. Although the downstream demand is weak, the replenishment sentiment before the festival is not good. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the supplier still plays a leading role. The spot goods on the market are tight, and the goods holders are reluctant to sell. In addition to the guidance of the factory news, the TDI price rises strongly before the festival. It is expected that the TDI market will settle at a high level, and the price range will fluctuate, Pay special attention to the downstream follow-up.

Price trends: on September 28, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 7900 yuan/ton, Shijiazhuang Petrochemical 7900 yuan/ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical 7900 yuan/ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton;

South China: Hainan Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7850 yuan/ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene quoted 7850 yuan/ton;

Others: Dongming Petrochemical quoted 8100 yuan/ton, Jingbo Petrochemical 7980 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical 7950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical 7903 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 7900 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical 8050 yuan/ton.

Analysis and comments: For crude oil, the OPEC+meeting is coming, and the market expects that the meeting policy may be aimed at reducing supply; Before the arrival of Hurricane Ian, the supply in the US Gulf region was limited, and international oil prices rebounded yesterday.

Today, Weilian Chemical lowered the price of pure benzene by 100 yuan/ton; Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 50 yuan/ton.

Styrene continued to weaken, pure benzene negotiation in East China was weak, and there was demand in the downstream of Shandong, but due to arbitrage, the industry was cautious. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 7850-8100 yuan/ton.

In September, the domestic EVA market price changed from a weak point to a significant increase. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 19200.00 yuan/ton on September 1 and 20666.67 yuan/ton on September 27. The increase in September was 7.64%, down 20.92% compared with the same period last year.

In September, the domestic EVA market was dominated by price adjustment, with only a small decline at the end of the month (27), and the overall upward range was obvious, dominated by positive factors in the month. The EVA market entered the downward channel in late May, and the weakness continued until the end of August. As the price fell to a relatively low level, the downstream market entered on bargain hunting, and the market trading atmosphere improved. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises has been raised periodically, which has brought obvious support in terms of cost. In addition, the rising supply of auction goods also brings some support to the market. However, at present, the market demand for photovoltaic materials is relatively flat, while the market demand for foaming materials is general, and the lack of demand has brought some restraint to the rising market.

To sum up, at the end of September, the international crude oil was weak and the raw material side was negative. There is no obvious change in supply, but the demand needs to be improved. The downstream is cautious, and the market trading atmosphere is general. However, the falling space of EVA price is relatively limited at present, and the firm price of petrochemical enterprises provides some support. It is expected that in the short term, the price of domestic EVA market will mainly be adjusted in a narrow range, and the downstream demand needs to be concerned in the long term.

Price: 610.3 yuan/barrel

Analysis: overnight international oil prices fell sharply on Friday, WTI crude oil fell nearly 6%, falling below the $80 threshold. Affected by this, the SC crude oil in the internal market fell rapidly and sharply on Monday. On the 26th, the main contract of SC crude oil fell 6.27% to close at 610.3 yuan/barrel. Macroscopically, the continuous strengthening of the US dollar has brought pressure on oil prices. In addition, the risk of economic recession is aggravated by the sharp interest rate increase of the global central bank, which then depresses the fuel demand. In addition, as the refinery entered the autumn overhaul period, the decline in operating rate led to the accumulation of crude oil, and many factors triggered a panic decline in the oil market.

Forecast: In the short term, there will still be pressure from the demand side on oil prices, panic selling will continue to depress oil prices, and the oil market will still bottom out. However, in the medium term, the oil supply pattern has not changed and the shortage is expected to remain unchanged. As winter approaches and heating demand increases, the oil market is still likely to rebound.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite this week was stable on the whole. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2600.00 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2600.00 yuan/ton, which was stable on the whole.

This week, the sodium metabisulfite market was running smoothly on the whole. The market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite ranged from 2400-2650 yuan/ton, and most of the prices were concentrated around 2550 yuan/ton. Affected by the low price of raw materials, the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, and the enterprise can use as soon as it is purchased. The enterprise mainly completes orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises. Some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of September 23, the price of domestic soda ash rose slightly by 1.14% in the month, the price of sulfur rose by 8.02% as a whole, and the cost of raw materials rose slightly after the overall stability, which will support the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price in the future.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the overall price of raw materials has stabilized and rebounded slightly. With the support of costs, the overall market price of domestic sodium metabisulfite is expected to rise slightly in the future.