1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 23): 17500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the price of refrigerant R22 was temporarily stable on May 17, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 5.42%. The price of raw material chloroform fell slightly, the cost support became weaker, and the market supply increased. At the same time, the demand did not increase. Under the bad conditions of many parties, the price of R22 fell steadily. At present, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is mostly 11730 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 4137.5 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of R22 is mostly in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton.

R22 market is expected to be stable and weak.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 15366.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 16300.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.07%. On May 20, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 82.74, up 1.18 points from yesterday, down 21.63% from the highest point 105.58 in the cycle (2021-09-16), and up 132.87% from the lowest point 35.53 on December 11, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 16100 yuan / ton, an increase of 800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 16500 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 16300 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde, the propylene market fell slightly this week, and the price fell from 8576.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 8330.60 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.87%. The price of butyraldehyde fell slightly, which weakened the supply and demand of raw materials. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the price fell from 17433.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 16833.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3.44%. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late may may may mainly decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

Market price of domestic main hydrobenzene market on May 19 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on May 19

East China, 9100~9200

Shandong Province, 8800~8900

On May 17, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $112.40/barrel, down US $1.80 or 1.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.93/barrel, down US $2.31 or 2.0%. Oil prices closed lower for the first time after four consecutive rises, mainly due to the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the expectation of substantial interest rate hike. In addition, there was news that the United States would relax restrictions on oil producing Venezuela, and oil prices fell.

Recently, the overall price of crude oil has risen, and the price of pure benzene in Asia has continued to rise, driving the price of domestic pure benzene to rise. The low inventory of ports in East China has once again boosted the market mentality, and the short-term bullish mentality has not decreased. At present, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8850-9250 yuan / ton.

On May 18, the average price of 1# tin ingots in the spot tin market in East China was 288110 yuan / ton, down 2.7% from the previous trading day.

In terms of fundamentals, affected by the improvement of the import situation at the mine end, the operation of domestic refineries is basically normal, the domestic output has rebounded to a certain extent, and the supply has rebounded. In the downstream, the production in the Yangtze River Delta is still weak recently, the demand for tin ingots is suspended, and the purchase enthusiasm is low. It is expected that the tin price will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 17 was 5008.33 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Up 0.7% year on year.

Hungary insisted on signing the Russian oil embargo and tightening global supply. Investors took profits in the recent rebound, and oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Today, Meg’s external market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the negotiated price of cargo recently was around us $620 / ton. At present, the economy of ethylene glycol is poor, the operating rate has declined slightly, the cogeneration unit is mainly converted to EO, the supply side is stable as a whole, the operation of polyester in the downstream has not increased significantly, and the demand has not improved substantially. In terms of inventory, as of May 16, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 1151100 tons, a decrease of 2100 tons or 0.18% compared with last Monday and 10500 tons or 0.9% compared with last Thursday.

Forecast: low range shock.