Price trend in August

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business agencies, the price trend of cryolite in August fell first and then rose. On August 31, the average market price in Henan was 7675 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.33% over the price of 7650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and an increase of 18.53% over the previous year.

In August, the domestic cryolite market was put into operation on a wait-and-see basis. The supply and demand in the market were relatively balanced. The price of cryolite fluctuated little, and the overall price was high. In terms of supply, the raw materials were tight, the fuel cost was high, the enterprise cost pressure was high, the cryolite manufacturer’s inventory was tight, and the downstream demand was acceptable. The purchase in the market was mainly based on demand, and the enterprise’s shipment was relatively smooth. The manufacturer’s quotation in the month was slightly adjusted according to its own shipment situation. As of 31st, The ex factory price of cryolite in Henan is 7200-8700 yuan / ton, and the range price is increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous month; The ex factory quotation in Shandong is about 8000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

On the upstream side, the domestic soda ash price declined as a whole and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. On August 31, the average price of soda ash was 2620 yuan / ton, which was 6.09% lower than the price of 2790 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. During the month, soda ash was mainly operated in a weak way, and the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing was not high. Most of them followed up on demand, and the manufacturers negotiated shipment. The trading atmosphere on the site was weak, and the market focus moved downward.

The downstream aluminum market experienced wide fluctuations in August. On August 31, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18453.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.75% over the average price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In August, the overall price fluctuated, the domestic downstream consumption of aluminum was weak, the regional epidemic, high temperature and power limitation interfered with the downstream construction, the aluminum rod and aluminum profile factories in Sichuan were basically shut down, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots was relatively stable. Recently, there was a slight accumulation of stocks, and the price of aluminum ingots mainly fluctuated.

Future forecast

At present, the cryolite market is operating at a high level, the supply of raw materials is tight, the production pressure of enterprises is large, the downstream demand is stable, and the purchase in the market is followed up on demand. From the supply and demand performance, the supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced. It is expected that the cryolite market will mainly wait and see in the later period, and the cryolite price will temporarily operate stably.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on August 31, the average p value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4133.33 yuan / ton, down 16.67 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

From the perspective of cost, the price of international crude oil futures market fell sharply yesterday, and traders took profits after the sharp rise of oil price in the previous trading day. Because the global economic recession under high inflation continues to weaken the prospects of global oil demand, and Iraq’s oil supply has not been affected by the domestic turmoil. Driven by the rise of crude oil futures market, the spot valuation of light distillate oil in Asia rose. The spot price of naphtha rose to $70.47/barrel, and the spot price difference of naphtha rose to + 2.57/barrel.

The power limitation policy caused by weak demand and high temperature makes polyester production at a low level and the demand side is weak. At the end of the month, as the temperature dropped slightly, some cities relaxed the power limit, and the operating rate of looms in the lower reaches of Zhejiang and Jiangsu increased. Supply side restart and maintenance coexist. Weihe Binzhou chemical was overhauled at the end of August, Tongliao Jinmei chemical was shut down on August 26, Hubei sanning 600000 tons unit was restarted and discharged, and Zhongyan hongsifang 300000 tons / year ethylene glycol unit was restarted on August 28. In terms of inventory, as of August 29, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.0431 million tons, a decrease of 39800 tons or 3.68% compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 35500 tons or 3.29% compared with last Thursday. The main port inventory continued to be removed, and the pressure on the supply side was reduced.

3、 Forecast: the fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that the low-level shock consolidation will continue.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on August 30, the average price of petroleum asphalt manufacturers in Shandong was 4450 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day and 31.16% year-on-year. On August 30, the closing price of domestic asphalt futures was 3959 yuan / ton, up 0.92%.

The international crude oil rose strongly, and the asphalt futures market followed the rise, but the range was not large. In terms of spot goods, the quotations of most manufacturers are stable, and the quotations of a few enterprises are increased by 20-30 yuan / ton. The market demand performance is different, and the overall trading is general.

The short-term domestic asphalt market is dominated by high-level consolidation.

On the cost side, the delivery of pure benzene at the end of the month was basically completed, and the downstream demand was not improved well. The price of pure benzene refined in Shandong Province fell by a wide margin at the weekend. Today, the domestic price of pure benzene is 7350-7550 yuan / ton.

The cost side is soft, but the operating rate of aniline is decreasing, the supply and demand side is temporarily stable, and the price continues to be stable. Today, the price in Shandong is 10000-10200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 10000-11000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 27250 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 32000 / ton. The price rose within the month, with a range of 17.43%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose. On the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased. In the first half of the month, the market situation was light, the market sales was general, and the downstream enterprises pressed the price to purchase, which depressed the confidence of the yellow phosphorus market, and the yellow phosphorus market was weak. In the second half of the month, power supply in Sichuan was limited and yellow phosphorus enterprises were shut down. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation in Weng’an District of Guizhou, the transportation of yellow phosphorus in some areas is limited, which is more troublesome than before. Some companies in Yunnan are overhauled, and the quotation is suspended. Yellow phosphorus prices began to rise sharply. Up to now, the quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus factory is about 32000 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus was general. The downstream enterprises were more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, the market transactions were weak, the prices of traders were slightly lowered, and the yellow phosphorus manufacturers were mainly supportive.

In terms of phosphate rock, in the middle and early ten days of August, the domestic market of medium and high-grade phosphate rock continued to consolidate at a high level. The supply in the field was still tight, and the downstream demand was mainly based on demand. Near the end of the month, after the downstream phosphate fertilizer market turned cold, the terminal demand support of the phosphate ore market was loosened, and the market price in the field was weaker than that in the previous period. On August 22, some mining enterprises with higher prices in the previous period slightly reduced the price of 30% phosphate rock by 50-80 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the field was narrowed. As of August 24, the market price of 30% phosphate ore in China was around 1050-1100 yuan / ton, The specific price is also related to factors such as powder to block ratio. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 850-980 yuan / ton. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. At present, the market of phosphate rock quarry is light, and the downstream purchase is moderate, and the transaction is generally general.

In terms of coke, in August 2022, the coke market experienced two rounds of increase. As of the press release, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2200 yuan / ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2600 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 18.18%. This month, the coke market has experienced two rounds of increase, with an increase of 400-480 yuan / ton in the month. On the 26th, some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia started a new round of increase, but the mainstream enterprises did not reply, and as of the press release, they did not land. In this month, the overall operating rate of coke enterprises rebounded, the supply of coke improved significantly, the overall coke inventory in the plant was low, the sales situation was good, and the attitude of coke enterprises was positive. Near the end of the month, due to the influence of downstream procurement, some coke enterprises delayed shipment, and the coke inventory in the plant increased slightly. In the future market, the business community believes that the current coke price is mainly supported by the price of raw material coking coal. The market mentality is generally weak. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the mentality of coke enterprises is slightly changed. There is a certain accumulation of inventory in the plant, and the game mentality of coke steel is strong. It is expected that the coke price will remain temporarily stable in the near future. In the future market, the focus will be on the price trend of raw material coking coal and the sales of downstream finished products.

In terms of phosphoric acid, this month, phosphoric acid fell first and then expanded, and the overall decline was dominated. According to the bulk data list of business association, on August 25, the reference price of phosphoric acid was 8316.67, a decrease of 3.85% compared with 8650.00 on August 1. In the second half of August, the price of phosphoric acid rebounded. Due to the strong yellow phosphorus Market of raw materials this week, the cost support is favorable, and the phosphoric acid market price rises. In Sichuan, due to power limitation and cost rise, most manufacturers suspended quotation and order receiving. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will continue to dominate in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business community, the yellow phosphorus price first fell and then rose this month. The price of upstream phosphate rock continued to be high and consolidated. The coke market was up, and the cost support was acceptable. However, downstream enterprises are more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and the market turnover turns weak near the end of the month. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will fall slightly in the short term.