In February, the domestic phenol market rose more than fell. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7770 yuan/ton on February 1st and 7948 yuan/ton on February 27th, an increase of 2.28%.

Returning to the market after the Spring Festival, the cost side price is relatively strong. With the support of the cost side, phenol opened high, and traders were actively pushing up the market. However, due to the sluggish demand side, the market turned weak and slightly fell in the past two days.

With the news of the maintenance of the second phase phenol ketone unit at Zhejiang Petrochemical and inquiries from downstream demand, the phenol market has once again been pulled up, and the focus has once again shifted upwards. However, some terminal factories resumed work relatively late or had some inventory before the holiday. Due to slow demand recovery, the phenol market experienced a slight decline again after rising.

As the end of the month approaches, the overall monthly average price is relatively high, and traders have limited room to make concessions. Moreover, most traders have little pressure to ship at the end of the month, and the market has once again risen slightly. In summary, the domestic phenol market experienced ups and downs in February, with an overall bullish trend and less downward trend.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price range of 7900-7950 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7900 yuan/ton. As of the 27th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Domestic enterprise installation situation in February: Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I phenol ketone installation will be shut down on November 1st, and the restart time is yet to be determined; The Guangxi Huayi phenol ketone plant will shut down on February 4, 2025, and is expected to undergo a maintenance period of 2 months; The phenol ketone unit of Ningbo Taihua will be shut down for maintenance from February 12th to February 22nd; The second phase phenol ketone unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from February 12th to February 20th; The Shanghai Xisafen ketone plant was shut down on February 25th and is expected to resume in early March. Details are being followed up.

Business Society expects that the phenol market in March is still worth looking forward to. On the supply side, the replenishment of cargo in February decreased compared to expectations. As of now, Jiangyin Port has a stock of 20000 tons, and 8 sets of equipment have been repaired in February, with an expected loss of 90000 tons. The industry’s operating rate is relatively low; On the demand side, downstream demand increased in March compared to February; Considering that phenol ketone enterprises are still operating at a loss line, it is expected that the phenol market will continue to operate strongly in the later stage, but attention still needs to be paid to the impact of costs on the phenol market.

After experiencing continuous fluctuations and downturns in the previous two months, the liquid ammonia market gradually bottomed out and stabilized in February. After this week, liquid ammonia prices have risen significantly due to the dual benefits of supply tightening and demand recovery. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province has increased by 9.83% this week. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2500-2700 yuan/ton.

Device maintenance increases, northern supply continues to tighten

In terms of supply, the supply of liquid ammonia has continued to tighten recently, with some equipment undergoing maintenance. On the one hand, there are more companies scheduled for maintenance during the Spring Festival. On the other hand, the recent increase in faulty equipment has affected some production, mainly concentrated in northern regions such as Shandong, Henan, and Shaanxi. So, the increase in liquid ammonia prices in the northern market is relatively strong. Taking the Shandong market as an example, manufacturers increased their prices by over 200 yuan/ton for two working days this week. In addition, the increase in self use of ammonia plants has resulted in fewer sources of goods entering the market.

The overall industrial chain has slightly improved

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain chart, there has been a slight improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia. The upstream natural gas continued to rise in February and continued to rise this week, with a slight slowdown in the increase. The cost side remains favorable. In addition, the downstream sector has slightly rebounded, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers continues to rise, increasing from 30% before the year to over 50%. The industrial sector maintains a strong demand, and the overall demand for liquid ammonia remains on the rise.

Downstream urea market improves first

In terms of downstream related products such as urea, urea is the first to rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, urea has increased by nearly 10% in the past two weeks, and its upward trend has slightly slowed down this week. As of this Tuesday, the mainstream quotation for small and medium-sized particles in Shandong region is around 1870 yuan/ton. The domestic urea fundamentals are expected to improve, and the demand for green manure is increasing, which has increased the demand for urea. In addition, industrial demand has continued to increase, and urea has experienced a small peak in production and sales. Manufacturers are also cooperating to release production pace, and market sentiment continues to heat up.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that in the short term, the liquid ammonia market is expected to maintain a warming trend. The supply side may remain tight in the near future. Although the recovery of faulty devices is expected, there are too many planned maintenance companies, and it is expected that the market supply will not ease before the end of the month. In addition, the demand during the peak season for agricultural needs has not yet subsided, coupled with the low inventory of enterprises and society, liquid ammonia will still peak at the end of the month.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of February 24th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7766.67 yuan/ton, and the cyclohexane price remained stable with insufficient demand. Currently, the mainstream market price remains at around 7800 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Currently, the overall market is running steadily, with insufficient support from the upstream cost side and excessive inventory pressure. Currently, there is a boost in some equipment news in the pure benzene market, and short-term consolidation of the pure benzene range in East China.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that cost support is poor. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term.

Last week (February 17-23, 2025), cost support was relatively strong, and the price of nylon filament increased narrowly. The upstream raw material market is relatively strong, with cost support remaining, while the downstream market is still in the stage of resuming work. In addition, most manufacturers have already stocked up before the year, and currently, the consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high, and on-site actual transactions are limited, with weak support from the demand side. Many businesses adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of nylon filament increased narrowly last week (February 17-23, 2025). As of February 23, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 16800 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.84%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 14425 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.05%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17425 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.72%.

Raw material caprolactam rises

In terms of cost: Last week (February 17-23, 2025), Sinopec raised the weekly settlement price of high-end caprolactam to 11660 yuan/ton, an increase of 210 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price trend of raw materials in the market has risen within the week, with strong support from the cost side.

Supply and demand: Nylon filament manufacturers have basically resumed production and work within the week, and the industry’s operating rate is gradually increasing. The on-site supply has significantly increased, and the performance of the supply side is still acceptable; The nylon filament market is operating at around 7.8% capacity. The downstream market has also basically resumed work and production. In addition, most manufacturers had already stocked up before the year, but currently the main consumption of raw material inventory is low enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The actual transactions on site are limited, and the support from the demand side is insufficient.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the upstream pure benzene price is high, and there is little fluctuation in the on-site caprolactam equipment. The demand side mostly maintains on-demand procurement. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will remain stable at a high level next week.

Supply and demand side: Most nylon filament manufacturers have resumed normal production, and the on-site supply will increase significantly. At the same time, the overall inventory level in the market may increase; Downstream manufacturers may gradually resume work, and each enterprise has a certain amount of raw material inventory. In addition, due to insufficient confidence in the future market and limited replenishment demand, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side of the nylon filament market will still be weak in the short term.

Overall, the spot market for raw material caprolactam and nylon PA6 chips remain stable, with decent cost support. Downstream enterprises mainly execute previous orders, and demand is unlikely to show significant improvement. Amidst mixed market news, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 21st, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 11220 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as February 1st. Compared with January 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (2.17-2.21), the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 was mainly in consolidation and operation. During the week, the overall volatility of the spot market for silicon metal 441 # was not significant, and the market performance was relatively stable. During the week, other silicon metal grades such as 553, 552, 421 experienced a narrow downward trend in market conditions. As of February 21st, in the East China region of China, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in the Kunming region it is around 11300~11500 yuan/ton, in the Huangpu Port region it is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, and in the Tianjin region it is around 11000~11100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

On the supply side: Currently, although the market price of metal silicon 441 # is temporarily stable, some grades in the metal silicon market have loosened their prices this week, which has a certain impact on the mentality of the market. There is a small-scale destocking in the market, and there is still some pressure on the overall supply side.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand for metallic silicon is mainly driven by rigid procurement, with average on-site transactions and limited market support from the demand side.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the supply and demand transmission is weak and constant. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.