According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic lithium carbonate has shown a narrow range of fluctuations recently. As of October 15th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate spot trading society was 73016 yuan/ton, up 1.95% month on month and down 10.3% year-on-year; The benchmark price for domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate spot trading is 71166 yuan/ton, up 1.93% month on month and down 9.69% year-on-year.
Supply side: pressure and support coexist
The overall supply side presents a situation where pressure and support are intertwined. On the one hand, supply pressure still exists: domestic lithium carbonate production continues to grow, and it is expected that the production may exceed 90000 tons in October, which will exert a certain pressure on market prices.
On the other hand, Chilean customs released export data showing that the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile in September 2025 was 15918 tons, a decrease of 5.83% compared to the previous month and 12.74% compared to the previous year. Among them, 11101 tons were exported to China, a decrease of 14.5% compared to the previous month and 33.1% compared to the previous year. To some extent, it reduces the increase in market supply.
Demand side: resilience and hidden concerns intertwined
On the demand side, there is a characteristic of both support and hidden concerns. In the field of power batteries, demand remains resilient. With the continuous development of the new energy vehicle industry, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has steadily increased, driving the growth of demand for power batteries and providing certain support for the demand for lithium carbonate.
However, the escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States has also increased the uncertainty of export orders for lithium carbonate and downstream products such as energy storage batteries, further putting pressure on the demand side.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the current lithium carbonate market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate narrowly around the current price. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.
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