First, the price trend
Into the third quarter, the domestic phenol market has a warming trend, but the market pushed up the momentum in July, and the increase was small. In August, with the frequent inspection and maintenance information of major manufacturers, and the manufacturers controlled the goods, the market pushed up, after several times. The listing has been raised, and the total number of manufacturers has risen by 1,300 yuan/ton, and the current market reflects a larger increase of 1,500 yuan/ton. As of now, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the factory offers at the beginning of August is 9411 yuan/ton, and the 9th offer is 10287. Yuan/ton, an increase of 9.31%.
Second, analysis and review
Products: Looking back on the first half of 2018, phenol fell sharply in the first quarter. After the anti-dumping investigation and supply shortage in the second quarter, the price was quickly adjusted back. However, the high level continued to be less than one month. In May, the Lianyungang estuary pollution incident made the Jiangsu area The environmental protection pressure of various enterprises is relatively high. In the short term, Jiangsu environmental protection has become a key rectification area. In the later period, environmental protection in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hebei, Henan and other places has also been promoted. In addition, Qingdao’s Shanghe Summit was held in June, and demand in Shandong has also decreased. Logistics transportation is limited, and this decline continues until mid-July. In July, manufacturers began to plan maintenance information frequently, traders reluctant to sell, manufacturers control goods, the market began to push up, thick accumulation, and went all the way up in August.
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Phenol main market offer situation: As of now, the supply in East China is relatively good, the mainstream reference offer is 10,300 yuan / ton, which is the same as the manufacturer’s offer; the first-level and second-tier traders in Yanshan area are actively stocking, and the next month, Zhongsha Tianjin overhaul 20 For many days, the current mainstream of negotiations in the region is 10,500 yuan / ton; the manufacturers in Shandong are operating normally, relatively stable, the mainstream offer is 10,400 yuan / ton; in the South China Huizhou Zhongxin parking and overhaul, the plant offers 10,700 yuan / ton, the region Traders are nervous.
Industry chain: Upstream products, pure benzene and propylene prices have brought certain support to phenol prices. The price of pure benzene Sinopec listed is frequently raised, and the current offer is 7,000 yuan / ton, and the new downstream production capacity is good for pure benzene. The pure benzene market is full of confidence and the price is stable. In terms of raw material propylene, the profit drove the polypropylene plant’s operating rate to increase significantly. The demand for propylene increased, and the propylene market remained high, setting a new high in the year. Downstream, the current market demand for phenol downstream terminal is stable, but traders below the phenol level 2 are optimistic about the market, actively stocking, and relatively good demand.
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In terms of supply, since the third quarter, some domestic phenolic ketone manufacturers have stopped or planned to overhaul.
Third, the market outlook
Good factors, the market has been weak before mid-July, although the market has been quite price but lack of motivation. After mid-term, traders are more active in the market. At one time, traders have cleared their positions. After hearing some downstream environmental protection, they resumed work. Some traders are reluctant to sell. The offer was higher on a daily basis, and the low price was hard to find. The market offer was higher than the manufacturer’s 200-300 yuan/ton. The manufacturers issued maintenance information, and the market supply was tight and pushed up in August. Two major manufacturers in South China and Northeast China overhaul, Shandong and North China manufacturers limited, the market supply is gradually strained. Negative factors, the downstream demand of phenol is an important factor for whether to maintain high or even continue to rise. At present, downstream end users just need to purchase mainly, and the start of the field is relatively stable. The increase is relatively large and relatively concentrated. It can be said that the downstream has not yet Digestion is inevitable for high positions. The phenol analyst of the business community believes that the middle traders are actively shipping in the second half of August. If the downstream acceptance is normal, it will affect the future price trend. At present, the market is still pushing up, or will continue to rise 300-500 yuan / ton, It is still difficult to maintain a high position at the end of the season.