The current rise in acrylic acid prices is mainly driven by the rising costs of crude oil, propane, and propylene due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, rather than a shortage of production capacity. The market is characterized by short-term strength, pulse rise, and weak sustainability. The turning point of the price will be determined by the trend of oil prices, the situation of raw material prices stopping rising, and downstream willingness to receive goods.
1、 Market Overview
As of March 3, 2026, the benchmark price of acrylic acid is 6583.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.67% compared to the beginning of this month (6350.00 yuan/ton).
During the same period, the spot price of propylene in East China was 6480 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. The PDH cost was between 6800-7000 yuan/ton, and the cost continued to increase. Brent crude oil has risen to $65-75 per barrel due to geopolitical premiums, with the Strait of Hormuz accounting for 20% -30% of global seaborne crude oil trade, and energy supply chain expectations tightening. The total domestic production capacity of acrylic acid is about 4.4 million tons per year, with a self-sufficiency rate of nearly 100%. The production capacity of acrylic acid in the Middle East is only 400000 to 450000 tons per year, accounting for less than 5% of the global market share, and has minimal direct impact on the domestic market supply.
2、 Cost end
Acrylic acid is mainly produced through the propylene oxidation process, with raw material costs accounting for over 60% and strong cost transmission rigidity. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the prices of crude oil and LPG, driving up the prices of raw materials such as propane and naphtha, pushing up the cost of propylene and transmitting it to acrylic acid, resulting in a passive upward trend in the market. The domestic PDH route has a high proportion and is sensitive to the supply and logistics of propane in the Middle East. The risk premium on the energy side quickly translates into cost support, which is the core driving force behind this round of price increases.
3、 Supply side
The Middle East is not a major producer of acrylic acid globally, and there is currently no direct risk of supply interruption to the domestic market. The overall supply side remains loose. However, the potential disturbance brought by geopolitical risks cannot be ignored. If the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, it will directly affect the logistics efficiency and supply expectations of global LPG and propylene, push up international fuel and chemical raw material prices, and indirectly intensify the cost pressure on domestic acrylic acid enterprises. At present, the overall operation of the industry is stable, and there is sufficient domestic supply of goods. The price increase is not due to supply contraction, but the result of the combined effect of cost push and enterprise price increase.
4、 Demand side
The Middle East is not a major production area for acrylic acid, and there is currently no direct risk of supply interruption domestically. The overall supply is loose. But if the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, it will affect the global logistics and supply expectations of LPG and propylene, push up international raw material prices, and indirectly exacerbate the cost pressure of domestic acrylic acid. At present, the industry is operating steadily and the supply is sufficient. This round of price increases is not a contraction of supply, but a combination of cost push and enterprise price increase.
5、 Subsequent market trends
Under the benchmark scenario, if the conflict is limited and shipping is normal, and oil prices operate in the range of $65-75 per barrel, acrylic acid is expected to rise by 5% -10%, and the rise will last for 2-4 weeks. Later, it will gradually fluctuate and fall back with the increase of downstream resistance. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for 1-2 weeks in the short term, oil prices will rise to 80-90 US dollars per barrel, and acrylic acid prices may jump by 15% -25%. The strong market will last for 4-8 weeks, and gradually decline after the conflict eases. If there is a long-term conflict and interruption of raw material supply for more than one month, and oil prices exceed $90 per barrel, acrylic acid is expected to increase by more than 30%, and the upward cycle will be extended to 3-6 months, but the probability of this scenario occurring is low.
In summary, the main risks in the current market are concentrated in the unexpected escalation of geopolitical conflicts, significant fluctuations in oil prices, excessive pressure on downstream profits leading to load reduction and production cuts, and the release of new production capacity causing the industry to return to loose conditions. We need to focus on tracking three core indicators in the future: Brent crude oil price, East China propylene spot price, propane/CP price, and changes in PDH profit.
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