1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market reversed its decline this week (5.12-16), and prices rebounded significantly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4782 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.87% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The PVC spot market atmosphere improved this week, reversing the downward trend since May. On the one hand, driven by the futures market, the spot market has significantly improved and prices have rebounded. On the other hand, the market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand. This week, the PVC production rate remained stable, and there was no significant increase in supply. The production rate remained at a balanced level, but market transactions have significantly improved. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.
Cost side: The price of calcium carbide in the market has not changed much this week, with a slight decline. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of calcium carbide has slightly decreased by 0.62% this week. The main reason for the high price decline is limited cost support, and the upward trend of PVC prices in this round is mainly driven by supply and demand. Although there is no positive news on the cost side, the increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply and demand of PVC will remain stable in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers is expected to remain stable in the middle and late stages. Although the inventory of enterprises continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals in the later stage. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.
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