According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market has slightly increased. On April 17, the rare earth index was 391 points, a decrease of 61.17% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 44.28% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)
The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have slightly increased. As of the 18th, the price of neodymium oxide was 385000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.99% this week; The price of neodymium metal is 502500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.03% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 392500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.61% this week; The price of praseodymium metal is 527500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.44% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 490000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.03% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 387500 yuan/ton, with a 1.97% increase this week.
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, with increased transactions and improved inquiries in the domestic rare earth market. Downstream enterprises have increased their purchases recently, and production and separation enterprises in Inner Mongolia have resumed work; In addition, some magnetic material companies have started purchasing, leading to an increase in the price trend of light rare earths. Recently, some rare earth raw material imports have decreased, downstream manufacturers have depleted their inventory, and purchasing sentiment has increased, leading to an upward trend in the rare earth market.
According to statistics, in March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 863000 and 883000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and 35.3%, respectively. From January to March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.115 million and 2.09 million respectively, an increase of 28.2% and 31.8% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing strong support for the rare earth market, with the domestic rare earth market mainly rising.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments announced the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, with a slowdown in the growth rate of the indicators. In addition, China’s rare earth exports from January to March 2024 were 13483.5 tons, while China’s rare earth exports in March were 4709.6 tons; It has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market, and the light rare earth market has slightly risen.
Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have seen a surge in purchasing and ordering sentiment, and the inquiry situation has improved compared to before. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.
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