Inventory decline profit rebound
Compared with previous years, this year, the pet industry inventory at a historic low, profits in recent years, the best level. December 19 – 22, futures Daily reporter visited the Yangtze River Delta polyester industry chain related enterprises. The reporter found that, although the Spring Festival approaching, but the production order and operation rate has not decreased significantly, the production has a busy scene, before a few years of operating losses “haze” swept away.
Polyester market sentiment rebounded significantly
In mid December, many domestic textile enterprises have encountered a big problem: high raw material prices. From Suzhou City, a textile company in Shengze for nearly a month’s report can be seen, the polyester factory offer almost every day 100 – 300 yuan / ton up. For textile enterprises, the first day of hesitation, the second day of price increases, and the price of the third day, and the fourth day to buy but not the goods…… Rising prices have committed downstream polyester.
In fact, from September of this year, the polyester market has been the emergence of another round of rising prices.
“During the September G20 summit, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factory of large-scale centralized parking maintenance, leading to a rapid decline in the supply of polyester. The rapid release of the terminal orders after the G20 summit, boosted the demand for polyester products, polyester supply and demand pattern improved polyester production profit recovery.” Soochow futures analyst Wang Guangqian said that at the same time, polyester raw material prices MEG pull up directly at the end of September, the price of PTA is also rising oscillation at the end of September. In the cost push up the expected effect, the downstream enterprises to speed up the pace of replenishment of polyester raw materials, resulting in polyester enterprise finished goods inventory decreased rapidly, polyester product prices also will rise continuously, polyester production and sales, profits and market economy gradually rise.
Analyst Wu Xiaofen also found that the second half of this year, the polyester market season than in previous years has been extended. She told the daily news reporter, in September this year, the impact of the G20 summit, the fabric market in autumn and winter orders in general, polyester filament market is relatively flat. After October, the concentration of fabric orders arrived in the middle of the month, driven by the rise in crude oil prices and improved sales, polyester filament prices rose strongly, there has been a wide range of price increases.
“The fourth quarter of this year, the focus of a rebound in prices of polyester raw materials, crude oil price, the conference also support polyester manufacturers an important factor of polyester filament prices strong.” Wu Xiaofen believes that in the common role of the upstream and downstream, with polyester filament as the representative of the polyester raw material prices rose sharply, some raw materials such as polyester, nylon and other prices rose more than 30%.
Longzhong information data show that as of now, East China semi gloss polyester chip price is 7725 yuan / ton, compared to September 23rd rose 1575 yuan / ton, up 25.61%; Jiangsu Sanfangxiang polyester bottle factory price is 8100 yuan / ton, compared to September 23rd rose 1400 yuan / ton, or 20.90%. Polyester filament, polyester filament in East China POY150D/48F price of 8800 yuan / ton, compared to September 23rd rose 2000 yuan / ton, up 29.41%; East China polyester filament FDY150D/96F price of 9750 yuan / ton, compared to September 23rd rose 2150 yuan / ton, up 28.29%; East China polyester filament DTY150D/48F price of 10450 yuan / ton, compared to September 23rd rose 1825 yuan / ton, up 21.16%; polyester staple price for 8700 yuan / ton, compared to September 23rd rose 1900 yuan / ton, or 27.94%.
Industry profits are at a high level
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With the gradual rise in market sentiment, polyester industry production turnaround. Up to now, polyester production profit of nearly 260 yuan / ton, is the industry’s high level in recent years.
Currently, polyester stocks in the year is absolutely low, lower than last year. On the one hand, manufacturers of polyester before the Spring Festival, more willing to buy used with low inventory strategy; on the other hand, the downstream season has not yet ended, short-term oil prices strengthened PTA good expectations, strong willingness to buy downstream enterprises, the existing polyester inventory to get a better digestion.
In fact, this year there have been continuous polyester terminal products out of stock of the situation, the FDY product has been oversold, downstream knitting enterprise finished is oversold.
“Polyester and the end market appears oversold stock phenomenon is affected by the influence of the G20 summit, part of the order after the shift and focus on the release of the La Nina winters are expected to drive the release of a large number of terminal business orders.” Wang Guangqian said that this year the polyester enterprises at the beginning and during the G20 summit of the parking overhaul operation scale, polyester production base is low, resulting in the stock market supply and demand to reverse the pattern of continuous decline, which exacerbated the market prices of “self strengthening” expectations, and thus stimulate the terminal rigidity and speculative purchasing demand concentrated release.
In addition to the above factors, in the view of Jinshi futures analyst Huang Liqiang, this year the polyester market appears oversold phenomenon is mainly caused by inflation expectations. “Generally speaking, when the goods fall into the cycle of time, although the price is even low, but in leading the panic, the market bearish outlook, procurement is not positive. This shows oversold polyester market, in the impact of inflation expectations, the market believes that the polyester rise cycle has come, the market outlook is expected to continue to rise. Therefore, the downstream polyester enterprises actively stocking, polyester demand will pick up.” Huang Liqiang said.
According to Wu Xiaofen introduction, in the face of polyester filament wave after wave of price surge, downstream manufacturers stockpile actively improved, operating rates remain high, the concentration of stockpile polyester inventory decreased significantly. In addition, due to the downturn in the domestic market in previous years, polyester manufacturers are also actively exploring overseas markets, export has become one of the channels of diversion polyester production.
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Shengze textile industry “beautiful scenery”