1、 Price trend
According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 36500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 37333.33 yuan / ton on Saturday. The price increased by 2.28% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
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Yellow phosphorus prices rose this week. The overall market trading situation is acceptable. At the end of the May Day holiday, the downstream will take appropriate goods, mainly just in need. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issue early orders, the spot supply is relatively tight, and the quotation is increased. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 37000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 38000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 37000 yuan / ton.
In terms of phosphate rock, up to now, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 786 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock is 763 yuan / ton), the price has increased by 23 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.15%. At present, the tight supply situation in the domestic phosphorus ore market continues, and the voice is mostly dominated on the supply side. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market is mostly dominated by high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.
In terms of coke, the coke market maintained a temporary stable operation this week. From April 29 to May 7, 2022, the price of Shanxi coke market was 3794 yuan / ton last weekend and 3794 yuan / ton this weekend, flat. Before that, coke went through a rise cycle of about two months, with a total of six rounds, with a cumulative rise of 1200 yuan / ton. With the support of better profits, the coking enterprises have started well in the near future. With the recovery of domestic automobile transportation and the return of freight to a reasonable range, the coking enterprises are actively shipping. At present, the coke inventory in the plant is low as a whole. In terms of demand, at present, the profits of steel mills are declining, and it is difficult for steel mills to bear the cost pressure brought by high price coke. After the festival, some steel mills in Shanxi and Hebei opened the first round of raising and reducing 200 yuan / ton. At present, according to market news, this round of raising and reducing is more likely to land. It is expected that the coke market will be dominated by weak operation in the future, and the future still needs to focus on the coke inventory, steel plant operation and transportation in all links.
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In terms of phosphoric acid, up to now, the reference price of phosphoric acid is 10710 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.28% compared with May 1 (10680 yuan / ton). Phosphoric acid prices rose steadily this week. The May Day holiday has just ended, and the market wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. Due to the rise of yellow phosphorus price this week, it is expected that the phosphoric acid market will rise slightly in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that on the whole, the spot is tight this week and the price of yellow phosphorus rises. The price of upstream phosphate rock increased, and the coke market was temporarily stable. The market price of downstream phosphoric acid is stable and rising. The upstream and downstream support is acceptable, and the yellow phosphorus price is expected to be strong in the short term.
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