Recent urea price trend
As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week, from 2930.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2938.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.27%, up 39.02% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On April 14, the urea commodity index was 136.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.60% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 145.45% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
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The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is sufficient
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3150 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2880 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2920 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;
From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 7216.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 6804.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 5.71%, a year-on-year increase of 100.71% compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have been stable recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4953.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4986.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.67%, a year-on-year increase of 28.30% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 11766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11233.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.53%.
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From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is weakened and industrial demand is normal. At the end of spring ploughing, sporadic subsidies are made in the downstream. At present, the shipment of urea in some areas is blocked, the freight rate rises sharply, and the transportation situation will improve in the later stage. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea has returned to more than 160000 tons. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is high, the transportation is limited, and the future urea mainly fluctuates and falls in a narrow range.
The future price of urea is bearish
In the middle and late April, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the upstream market fell slightly and the cost support was general. Spring ploughing has entered the end, mainly sporadic procurement. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant and plate plant is high, and the downstream demand is normal. On the whole, the cost support of urea is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is sufficient. In the future, the urea mainly fluctuates and falls slightly.
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