According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market fluctuated this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell in an arc. As of March 25, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8990 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 5,39% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Industrial chain: the domestic market of raw propylene is running this week. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market is 8000-8200 yuan / ton. Supported by the cost, the propylene market stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of propylene industry declined. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the transportation was not smooth, the downstream operation was limited, and the demand was not driven enough. The propylene market is expected to be weak and volatile in the near future.
Crude oil in the upstream of the far end continues to increase, and the price of propylene, the direct raw material of PP, has not increased significantly. At present, there is no substantial change in the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the resulting market uncertainty remains. The market also has differences on stopping the decline and returning the rise of crude oil. Generally speaking, the downstream cost side is stronger, but the benefit transmission is not smooth, and PP is still subject to narrow shock consolidation. In terms of supply, the current supply of PP continues the abundant pattern in the early stage, there are many inventories in enterprises and midstream, and enterprises take the initiative to reduce the burden, which does not reach the expected scale. The operating rate of the industry is still high, and the profit of petrochemical plants is under pressure. The inventory pressure of merchants is the same, and buyers are more resistant to high price goods, so they are more cautious in taking goods. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises have not taken goods in a centralized manner before. Superimposed on the recent domestic rebound in health events, logistics and production in some areas have been affected. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, enterprises are blocked from going to the warehouse, businesses reduce prices and take orders, and the market is tangled.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of March 25, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was similar to that of wire drawing materials. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8916.67 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.49% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 3,78%. The demand of downstream textile enterprises is relatively stable this week. Terminal enterprises tend to take goods just to maintain production, but the market is abundant and competitive. The current demand for medical fiber products has increased, and the increase of downstream orders has also boosted the operating rate of fiber enterprises. On the whole, the current supply of PP fiber material is abundant, and the cost side has bottomed out. It is expected that the operation will still be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.
In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market was generally strong this week. As of March 25, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10216.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 5.15% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. At present, the health events in various countries are still not optimistic. China has a large number of local confirmed cases in March, and the epidemic prevention situation can not be relaxed. At the same time, it has a certain pulling effect on the demand for medical meltblown cloth materials. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation pattern of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may be strong, mainly finishing and operation.
Future forecast
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PP analysts of business agency believe that: the domestic polypropylene market is generally in a narrow range this week, the change of raw material propylene market is limited, the cost side of crude oil is positive and the downward transmission is poor, and the support of PP raw material side is general. The demand of terminal enterprises remains weak, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the goods are taken carefully. PP enterprises and businesses have accumulated stock in stock, and their offer confidence is not strong. In the short term, the domestic market is intertwined, and it is expected that the PP market may continue to operate in a narrow range.