Inventory decreased and nickel price increased slightly (9.6-9.10)

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price was strong this week. As of September 10, the spot price was 155100 yuan / ton, up 0.79% from 147816.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 21.05% from the beginning of the week and 32.51% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose 7 and fell 5, which were strong in the past two weeks.

Macro factors: in the first half of this week, the nickel price was under pressure to callback against the background of the rebound of the US dollar index. In the second half of this week, the market sentiment was good, and the non-ferrous metal plate rose strongly, driving the nickel price to rebound.

Nickel industry chain

Supply: in August, the actual output of ferronickel from China and Indonesia totaled 114800 tons, with a month on month increase of 1.98% and a year-on-year increase of 18.91%. The transportation capacity of the global shipping market is tight, and the shipping cost rises sharply; Domestic ports are congested, ship demurrage is high, and the cost of factory raw materials increases. Under the overall shortage of resources, the nickel ore market as a whole is in a state of price without market, and the bargaining focus continues to rise.

Downstream: in July, China’s stainless steel production decreased; In August, stainless steel production decreased slightly; In September, the output of stainless steel decreased further. From the perspective of new energy production chain, lithium iron phosphate in batteries increased significantly, and the proportion of ternary batteries decreased relatively. From the perspective of nickel sulfate supply, Indonesia’s wet process project is in operation, and the domestic production line of electrolytic nickel to nickel sulfate is basically transformed. However, from the price performance of nickel sulfate, the price is still high, but it has been weaker than that in the early stage.

To sum up: nickel supply is tight this week, LME inventory continues to decline, which supports nickel price, and the demand for downstream stainless steel and new energy is general. It is expected that nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term.