1、 Price data
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel oil rose and fell mutually this week, with overall stability. The price of domestic gasoline was 4994 yuan / ton, 0.17% lower than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel oil was 5139 yuan / ton, 1.06% lower than that of last week.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
| PVA 2088 (PVA BP20) |
Product: crude oil futures fell this week, and the operating rate of domestic refining and chemical equipment rose gradually in the near future. The market price of refined oil is weak in action, and the market price of refined oil is stable this week.
Industry chain: on April 9, the OPEC + special meeting came to an end. Its production reduction amount was lower than the market expectation. The market generally didn’t buy the result, and was boosted by the news of production reduction earlier. The market has digested the benefit ahead of time. From the perspective of demand, at present, the global epidemic is still in the stage of rapid spread. Market experts generally believe that it may last for a long time in the later period. Some institutions predict that the decline of crude oil demand in April will exceed 20 million barrels / day, or even 30 million barrels. As of 15:00 on the 10th, WTI crude oil price was at $23.5/barrel, and WTI crude oil futures fell 10.11% this week.
| PVA |
Market: on the demand side, on the gasoline side, during the Qingming holiday, the number of driving trips by residents increased, and the downstream consumption of gasoline was strong, which to some extent supported the wholesale gasoline market. Traders and downstream customers take more goods after the festival. In terms of diesel, engineering, infrastructure, logistics and other industries continue to provide rigid demand support. After the Qingming Festival, traders and downstream customers replenish more goods, and the overall market turnover is acceptable. However, in the near future, the operating rate of refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 67.18%, up 4.54% month on month, and the international crude oil price fell by more than 10%. This week, the market price of refined oil remained stable.
3、 Future forecast
Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: the output reduction of OPEC + meeting is not as strong as expected, and the demand for crude oil is expected to fall sharply, so the crude oil market has no power to act, which is subject to the low price of crude oil. It is expected that the market price of refined oil will be stable in the near future, with little possibility of rising.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |