1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is picking up slowly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 1985 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2022 yuan / ton, up 1.89% in the week, and the price fell 9.81% on a month on month basis, down 12.29% on a year-on-year basis.
2、 Market analysis
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL FIBER |
Products: the trading atmosphere of domestic methanol market has changed, and there is a significant volume of transactions. This week, the mainland market as a whole showed a trend of stability first and then growth, mostly around 50-100 yuan / ton; the trend of the port was more volatile, and Taicang, Fujian and other places rose 10-30 yuan / ton. The methanol to olefin unit in Northwest China started to be upgraded, and phase II of Jiutai in Inner Mongolia and Baofeng in Ningxia recovered to full capacity production. The polypropylene brand is the raw material for mask production. The inventory of two major ports in East China and South China continued to increase, with a total social inventory of 930200 tons, an increase of 14100 tons compared with last week.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. A small number of enterprises have resumed construction, many enterprises have construction plans, the upstream methanol market is in low-level operation, formaldehyde enterprises have small order replenishment actions, the downstream enterprises are still in low-level operation, the demand side is difficult to improve, and the overall transaction is light and hard to change.
Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market fell this week. After entering the middle of February, the restrictions on automobile transportation between regions were reduced, and the purchase of acetic acid in the downstream was no longer restricted by regions, resulting in the market transactions concentrated on low-end purchase. The northwest supply has successively impacted the North China market, resulting in the forced reduction of the local high price of North China by 100 yuan / ton. Suppliers from Shandong and Henan competed in the East China market. This week, the cumulative reduction of 100 yuan / ton increased the market bearish mentality. However, the overall start-up of downstream industries is still low, and the substantial demand for acetic acid is difficult to grow, and the buying is mainly rational under the trend of acetic acid bearish. Although the acetic acid market has made profits, the volume is still low.
| PVA |
Dimethyl ether: the overall trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether Market is weak this week, and the price shows signs of decline. The overall operation of dimethyl ether in China was about 7.03%, an increase of 6.19% over last week. Due to the current transportation still not recovered, the inventory removal of dimethyl ether continues to be slow, and with the current recovery of enterprise construction, but under the influence of continuous poor traffic, the digestion of dimethyl ether is slow, and the price rise resistance is still large.
3、 Future forecast
From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the traditional downstream gradually recovers; the international device maintenance is centralized, and the import volume is expected to keep decreasing from February to March; the start-up of Northwest MTO device is improved, and the purchase volume of Inner Mongolia Jiutai and Ningxia Baofeng is increased. On the negative side, the situation of coal shortage in Northwest China has eased, and some units have been started up, such as Xinao and Rongxin in Inner Mongolia; the overall inventory of methanol plants in the mainland is on the high side; the port MTO units have been started down, Ningbo Fude has stopped, and Nanjing Chengzhi has a maintenance plan behind it. Downstream demand shows an increasing trend, dangerous chemical vehicles are gradually on the road, the market transaction activity obviously indicates that the volume and price will rise in some parts, but considering the high inventory in the mainland and the port, the space for the rise is limited. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will show a strong trend of shocks next week.
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