Polysilicon market stable operation (10.21-25)

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week (10.21-25) polysilicon continued to maintain a narrow adjustment trend after the festival, not continuing the upward trend in September. At present, the market supply and demand balance, the price also returned to stability, the bottom rebound is temporarily over, although the price did not break through again, but the market is still relatively rigid. As of October 25, the average price quoted by domestic enterprises is 63000-67000 yuan / ton, and the current price is about 22% lower than that of last year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 7300-760 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is still at the early level.

II. Market analysis

In the middle and late ten days, the domestic polysilicon market has maintained stable operation. After going through the slow bull market of “Jinjiu”, the polysilicon market has entered a stable period at present. As the overall market temperature has not continued, the procurement remains on the sidelines, and the recent procurement price is expected to continue to fluctuate. At present, it is mainly focused on the price changes of single and multi silicon chips at the end of the month, but from the perspective of supply and demand, the market performance is relatively balanced at present. On the one hand, the market supply is sufficient, and the overhaul rate of large factories is low, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large. At present, 15 domestic polysilicon production enterprises have stopped this week, and there are two polysilicon enterprises in the overhaul period, and the overhaul is expected to continue to November. The signing rate of manufacturers is also high, mainly because most domestic enterprises are still executing the orders signed in October at the end of September, and most orders signed in November are concentrated in the next week, so the price of this week has not been greatly adjusted. Overall, the overall market supply pressure is not big. On the other hand, the market demand has returned to stability in the near future, and has not continued to expand. After entering the middle and late October, the downstream demand performance is in line with the rules. Previously, the silicon material price corresponding to the silicon chip price was relatively low, so the pressure of polysilicon chip enterprises is indeed large at present, but with the weak demand of polysilicon in the near future, the overall situation is not conducive to the price of the overall polysilicon products. The trading performance of overseas polycrystalline market is more active than that of domestic market, especially the small material market. Considering the change of exchange rate, the high price market has increased. Domestic polysilicon prices did not continue to rise, mainly because demand did not keep up.

In the future, business analysts believe that the current polysilicon market is weak and stable. In the late October, the overhaul of two enterprises will not bring much supply change to the market. In the short term, the supply is still stable. In the future, the polysilicon trend will mainly depend on the change of demand: the demand begins to shift to the single crystal market, so the single crystal market may be better than the polycrystalline market. Accordingly, monocrystal will occupy part of the demand for polycrystals, while the demand for polycrystals will decrease. However, due to the maintenance of silicon enterprises in the same period affecting part of the supply, offsetting the impact of some expected demand reduction, the market of polycrystal silicon will continue to maintain stability in the short term, mainly with narrow fluctuations.