Price Trend
According to the data monitored by business associations, on September 17, PET water bottle manufacturers quoted 7487.5 yuan/ton, which was 4.17% higher than the 16-day price of 7187.5 yuan/ton, and 33.85% lower than the same period last year.
On September 16, the PET commodity index was 54.04, up 0.84 points from yesterday, down 47.92% from the peak of 103.76 points in the cycle (2011-09-22), and up 13.20% from the low of 47.74 points on January 25, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)
II. Cause Analysis
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL FIBER |
Products: On September 14, two refineries in Saudi Arabia and the United States were attacked by drones, which affected Saudi oil production of 5.7 million barrels per day, and the disruption of Saudi supply caused oil prices to soar. Upstream products PTA and ethylene glycol market boosted, PET market prices have risen. At present, the polyester plant starts to maintain a high level, but the current market demand is limited, supply exceeds demand, driven by strong raw material end, the downstream follow-up is general, market turnover is flat, mostly wait-and-see, just need to purchase. As of September 17, the main quotation range of PET water bottle manufacturers is 7350-7550 yuan/ton, which is generally increased by 250 yuan/ton-300 yuan/ton.
Material aspect: PTA supply is sufficient at present, and there are plans to add new units, the overall start-up is high, inventory is still under pressure. Ethylene glycol plant start-up rate decreased, port inventory decreased, coupled with the Saudi attack led to the reduction of ethylene glycol production, polyethylene glycol prices.
| PVA |
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices on September 16, 2019. The top three commodities are LDPE (2.14%), LLDPE (1.82%) and PET (1.59%). There are three kinds of goods falling in the ring-to-ring ratio: PC (-1.72%), EPS (-0.49%) and PA66 (-0.42%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.36%.
3. Future Market Forecast
PET analysts believe that, boosted by crude oil, cost-side support is good, the market of PET is expected to continue to rise in the short term, but cautious terminal demand, a strong downstream wait-and-see atmosphere, and the dynamics of crude oil market and other factors, the rise is not sustainable.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |