China’s internal combustion fuel oil market rose slightly in July

Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of 180 CST fuel oil in the mainstream domestic market as of July 31 was 4556.00 yuan/ton, up or down 1.56% compared with 4486.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Fuel oil commodity index on July 31 was 92.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.40% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 100.24% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic fuel oil delivery this month is general, the current mainstream price is about 4550 yuan/ton. In recent weeks, fuel oil upwelling in Asia has reached a new high, which is one of the first signs of the impact of the new international regulations on ship fuel oil to be implemented in 2020.

PVA

Industry chain: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.47 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 58.05 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -0.72%; Brent crude oil was 66.55 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month and 64.72 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -2.75%. Several factors, such as tension between the United States and Iraq, the Gulf of Mexico storm and worries about oversupply, affected the trend of international crude oil prices in July. On Wednesday, July 31, the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil increased by 2 yuan/ton, with the winning bidding volume of 0.16 million tons, the bidding volume of 0.16 million tons and the volume of 0.9 million tons. The tendering price of this time is 3656 yuan/ton, with the winning bidding interval of 3666-3706 yuan/ton, and the next bidding time is August 7.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, there were 7 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were MTBE (12.29%), diesel (8.34%) and gasoline (8.07%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling annually, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were methanol (-9.55%), petroleum coke (-6.15%) and Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.98%.

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that this month’s international crude oil shocks, but the ship-fuel market is weak, the overall market turnover is weak, just in need of procurement. Fuel oil market prices are expected to remain stable in August, with some enterprises fluctuating slightly, or in the price range of 4500-4650 yuan/ton.