According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on August 5 was 117116.67 yuan/ton, which was 2.36% higher than 114416.67 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, 30.84% higher than that at the beginning of the year and 14.92% higher than that on the previous trading day. Since July 2, nickel has risen to the highest price of 118,466 yuan/ton in the year on July 19, followed by a slight fluctuation in the high level. Today’s nickel price is affected by market rumors that Indonesia has banned the export of raw ore, resulting in concerns about nickel supply. The price has risen sharply again by nearly three points. The price of the main 1910 contract of Shanghai nickel futures also rose rapidly, reaching a maximum of 1,19360 yuan/ton, a new high since June 27, 2018, with an increase of more than 4%. Prior to that, the daily line had reached “four lianyang”.
According to the current nickel futures table of business associations, the spot price of nickel is higher than the main contract price in the near future, the main contract price is the price of nickel in the next two months, and the spot price is higher than the main contract price of nickel, indicating that people are still cautious about the future price of nickel.
It is rumored that the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia has signed a decree banning the export of raw ore.
In mid-July, rumors that the Indonesian government might resume the export ban in 2022 triggered market concerns and led to a sharp rise in nickel prices. But there were rumors that the ban would not be enforced until 2022, and many doubted whether it would be reintroduced.
However, according to market rumors, the Nickel Mining Association informed all its members on the 4th that the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia had signed a ministerial decree banning the export of raw ore, and the specific content would be announced to the outside world on Monday (5). Some domestic nickel mine agents did learn from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines that the export of raw ore may be banned, but whether the final implementation and execution time have not yet been finalized, still need to wait for the actual announcement results. But opinions vary. At present, the most striking rumor is that it can be banned as early as October, and that it can be banned in November or January next year. Encouraged by the news, nickel prices soared again.
Another sudden earthquake in Indonesia
On August 2, Indonesia experienced another earthquake of magnitude 6.9. According to the US Geological Survey, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck the waters off Sumatra Island, Indonesia, on 2 July, and Indonesian authorities have issued a tsunami warning. Recent earthquakes occurred continuously in Indonesia. On June 24, earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.1 and 7.3 occurred successively in Papua and Bandahai provinces of Indonesia, and on July 14, an earthquake with magnitude of 7.1 occurred in Hamah, Indonesia. Frequent earthquakes have caused persistent concerns about the supply of nickel ore.
However, the earthquake in Indonesia has now subsided and cancelled two hours after the tsunami warning was issued. It is also known that there are two ferronickel factories in Wandan Province, which have an average monthly output of about 500 metal tons, accounting for less than 1% of the high-nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia, and have no impact on the disturbance of supply. Big.
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Future Market Forecast
History is always amazingly similar. The surge in nickel prices in July was also affected by the Indonesian or resumed export ban, the Indonesian earthquake and the Philippine mineral censorship. After adjusting nickel prices for a period of time, with the resumption of export ban boots or landing in Indonesia, another earthquake hit Indonesia, and nickel prices were pushed up again. Out of the independent market. Macroscopically, the impact of the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on China again, the export data of RMB breaking 7 bonds, the continuing trade war, affecting the domestic economy, and the demand for stainless steel downstream is not optimistic. Generally speaking, the rumors of Indonesia’s ban on mining have been expected in the market. The shortage of nickel supply or the existence of nickel supply have supported nickel prices. However, the nickel price should not be overly optimistic in the case of poor environmental and economic background. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to rise in the short term or still, but the increase is limited.