According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on July 15 was 106366.67 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from 103816.67 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, 18.83% from the beginning of the year and 4.37% from the previous year. Since July 2, nickel has broken through the 100,000 mark, up 8,000 yuan/ton by 8.61%.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
According to the current nickel futures table of business associations, the spot price of nickel is mostly higher than the main contract price in the near future. The main contract price is the price of nickel in the next two months. The spot price is higher than the main contract price of nickel, indicating that people are not so optimistic about the future of nickel. The frequent rise in nickel prices is mainly due to multiple factors that cause concerns about nickel supply.
A magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred in Hamahei, Indonesia
At 17:10 on July 14, an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 occurred in Hamahera Island, Indonesia (0.52 degrees south latitude, 128.17 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 km and frequent aftershocks. Halmahera Island is one of the main producers of laterite nickel mines in Indonesia. Mines are mainly concentrated in Buli, Weda, Subayin, Gebe and Obi. The location of the earthquake is indeed relatively close to that of mines and ferronickel factories.
| PVA |
However, it is understood that although the local mines and smelters are not directly affected and the roads and wharfs in the port area are not damaged, there are mines on Obi Island and mining enterprises in Weda Bay suspended shipment. From past experience, shipment is relatively vulnerable to natural disasters, but as long as the infrastructure is not damaged, the general duration is not long, it will be restored in a few days.
Indonesian government may resume export ban in 2022
A media report about the resumption of the export ban by the Indonesian government in 2022 has raised market concerns. Indonesia eased the ban in 2017, but at the time the government said it would only last five years and would restrict exports again by 2022. But Colin Hamilton, an analyst at BMOCapital Markets, said many were sceptical that the ban would be reintroduced.
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
Second round of mining censorship in the Philippines
On July 9, Philippine Deputy Finance Minister Bayani Agabin said on Tuesday that the Philippine Mining Coordination Committee (MICC) will organize a second round of objective, on the basis of scientific evidence and fact-finding domestic mining project reviews in the last week of July, which will last for six months. The second round involved 17 mines in the Philippines. However, only 17 mines were inspected in this round, much lower than 27 in the first round. Therefore, in the second half of 2019, the direct impact of nickel mining in the Philippines is relatively small. At the same time, after the first round of review, the mine has begun to pay attention to the legitimacy of mining procedures.
The main sources of nickel supply are the Philippines and Indonesia. The earthquake in Indonesia and the resumption of export ban in Indonesia, as well as the resumption of 17 sound censorship in the Philippines, together with the earlier shutdown of a nickel mining plant in Vale, have caused concerns about nickel supply, which has led to a continuous surge in nickel prices. However, in the downstream demand, the new energy industry is temporarily resting, and the output growth rate of new energy vehicles is obviously declining. In addition, the actual consumption of stainless steel downstream is not as expected, the stock of society and steel mills is accumulating, and the price of stainless steel is under pressure. In summary, nickel price supply is expected to be tight, but downstream consumption is very weak, low nickel inventory is still difficult to alleviate in the short term. It is expected that nickel prices will remain strong in the short term and should not be overly optimistic in the long term.