The price of blue charcoal has slightly decreased, with insufficient cost support and weakened downstream demand. In January, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased, with the price dropping from 3016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.55%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 21.40% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region slightly decreased in January.

Cost side: Low price consolidation of blue charcoal

In January, the upstream price of calcium carbide blue charcoal dropped significantly, with a price of around 1000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal is stable but weak, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient.

On the demand side: Downstream market fluctuations and declines

In January, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. The enthusiasm for PVC market inquiries is average, and market transactions are light. The market price has dropped from 5638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5590 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.85%, and the end of month price has decreased by 12.72% year-on-year. The domestic market for 1,4-butanediol has remained stable with a downward trend, with rigid contract trading and light spot trading. The market price of 1,4-butanediol has slightly declined. The market price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 9535.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9421.43 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.20%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 24.39% year-on-year. The downstream market of calcium carbide is fluctuating and falling, and downstream demand is weakening.

Looking ahead, in mid to early February, the calcium carbide market may experience a slight decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early February, with consolidation being the main trend.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, there was a turning point in the domestic vitamin market in January, with some vitamin products starting to stop falling and rise, and the market atmosphere improved.

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the price of vitamin C in January was 19.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month, 20.67 yuan/kg on the 30th, with a monthly increase of 6.93%. The vitamin C market is supported by improved demand, with a better trading atmosphere on the exchange, an increase in inquiries, and some traders suspending their reports, resulting in an overall improvement in supply and demand.

In January, the price of vitamin A stopped falling and rose, with an average price of 75 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 77 yuan/kg at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.64%. The current mainstream market quotation is around 80-85 yuan/kg, and the European market quotation is 19-20.5 euros/kg. The price increase of vitamin A in Europe has boosted market confidence with positive news, active inquiries on the market, and manufacturers actively pushing up prices. The downstream acceptance level is still acceptable.

In January, the price of vitamin E stopped falling and rose, with the mainstream market price around 65-70 yuan/kg. The European market quotation is 6.8-7.2 euros per kilogram. Boosted by the rise in European quotations. The domestic price of vitamin E is rising along with the trend. There have been many maintenance plans in China recently, and the supply side is favorable, which has provided some support for the price increase.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believe that the current positive news in the vitamin market is exhausted, and as spring approaches, downstream stocking behavior may occur. We will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on January 1st was 6580 yuan/ton. On January 29th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6430 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 2.28%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China on January 1st was 6450 yuan/ton, and on January 29th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6366 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price fell by 1.29%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid in the market fell first and then rose this month. In the first half of January, the market price of phosphoric acid continued to decline. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market continues to be sluggish, with fewer inquiries and relatively quiet transactions. Phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors have lowered prices for shipments, leading to bearish sentiment in the market. In the second half of January, the price of phosphoric acid in the market increased. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is strong, and there is support for the cost of phosphoric acid. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream demand users are actively purchasing, but overall market demand remains weak. As of January 29th, the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 5950-6700 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6000-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 5450-6950 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market rose in January, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is still acceptable. In the first ten days, the downstream market situation was average, and traders and downstream buyers had average enthusiasm for purchasing. Downstream procurement was more cautious and more wait-and-see. In the middle of the year, the yellow phosphorus market was on the rise, and the overall market trading situation was relatively active. Downstream stocking was active towards the end of the year. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market remained relatively stable, with manufacturers mainly placing early orders and completing the year-end stocking. The downstream market just needed a small amount of replenishment. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. After the domestic phosphate ore market rose this month, it remained stable in operation. In early January, some mining companies in China began to implement new ore prices. Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi regions have raised the prices of medium to high-grade phosphate ore by about 20-50 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply of phosphate ore in the field is still tight, and downstream demand for phosphate ore is mainly for rigid procurement. As of January 29th, the reference price for domestic phosphate ore market is around 1056 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has slightly increased. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is strong, and the cost is still supported. Downstream urgent replenishment before the holiday, some phosphoric acid manufacturers have stopped production, resulting in a decrease in market supply. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will experience a slight increase.

1、 Price trend

As of January 26th, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene for Shengyishe was 36850.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% compared to the beginning of this week (36820.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Price influencing factors:

This Saturday, the overall market for fluoropropylene remained relatively stable, with very few dealers adjusting prices and experiencing slight fluctuations in the short term. Due to insufficient inventory and low export volume, downstream demand for procurement led to slight fluctuations in the price of hexafluoropropylene.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst believes that downstream purchases are mostly on demand, and the market is not doing well. It is expected that the fluoropropylene market will fluctuate and operate next Saturday.

Price trend in 2023:

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the epoxy propane market will experience slight fluctuations and an increase in 2023. On January 1, 2023, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 8966.67 yuan/ton, and on December 31, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 9225.00 yuan/ton, with a 2.88% increase in the annual market.

In the first half of the year, the cost support in January was average, with no pressure on the supply side, and the demand side mainly followed up on demand. Downstream stocking was concentrated before the holiday, and the epoxy propane market saw a narrow rise. In February, the raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly, the price of raw material liquid chlorine rose, and the cost support increased. Some devices underwent load reduction and maintenance, resulting in a reduction in market supply. The demand side was wait-and-see and followed up, and the epoxy propane market operated strongly. In March, there was no pressure on the supply side at a low level, supporting market prices to rise. In the latter half of the year, cost support weakened, and shipments from factories in production were average. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the epoxy propane market was weak and consolidating. The cost side had little impact in April, while the demand side remained flat and followed suit, resulting in a narrow decline in the market. In May, the epoxy propane market fluctuated slightly, with some fluctuations on the supply side in the first half of the month. The market supply and demand pattern was tight, and the demand side watched and followed moderately. The supply side had no pressure to support the strong operation of the epoxy propane market. In the second half of the month, as the price of raw material propylene fell, the raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated at a low level. In addition, the supply side’s capacity utilization rate slightly rebounded, and the demand side’s reduction followed up, weakening the epoxy propane market. In June, the demand side mainly followed up with a moderate amount of rigid demand, while changes in supply side equipment affected the market. The trend of the epoxy propane market fluctuated and fell.

In the second half of the year, the cost support in July was average, factory shipments were still acceptable, and the demand side watched and followed up, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the market. In mid August, factory shipments were average, but downstream follow-up has weakened slightly. Some inventories have been slightly under pressure, and some companies have lowered their prices. In September, the cost support was relatively strong, with some devices experiencing a decrease in load. The demand band followed suit, but the market fluctuated slightly and rose. The cost support weakened in October, with downstream consumption of inventory raw materials as the main source. The ability to follow up on epoxy propane was average, and the market slightly declined. In November, some inventory on the supply side slightly accumulated at the beginning of the month, and prices slightly loosened. In mid month, there were individual fluctuations in the supply side equipment, and the demand side performance was flat, with a stable but weak market trend. The epoxy propane market slightly declined in December, with average cost support. In mid month, factory shipments were flat, and downstream follow-up was limited. Some inventory was under pressure, and the market was weak. In the latter half of the year, downstream purchases followed up, and inventory pressure was controllable. Some companies quoted higher prices, and the market atmosphere was still good.

Price forecast for 2024:

Supply side: In 2023, China’s epoxy propane production capacity saw a significant growth rate, with new production capacity including 150000 tons/year from Tianjin Petrochemical and 300000 tons/year from Jincheng Petrochemical. In 2023, the total production capacity exceeded 6.1 million tons/year, and the production also increased by more than 10% year-on-year. The expected continuous expansion of production capacity in 2024 is expected, with new production capacity expected to be around 3 million tons per year, and the supply side may be in a relaxed state.

Demand side: propylene oxide is an important basic chemical raw material, mainly used for the production of polyether polyols, propylene glycol and various non-ionic surfactants, among which polyether polyols are important raw materials for the production of polyurethane foam, insulation materials, elastomers, adhesives and coatings, and various non-ionic surfactants are widely used in petroleum, chemical, pesticide, textile, daily chemical and other industries. The growth rate of demand side production capacity in 2023 is not as high as that of epoxy propane, so it is mainly expected to follow up with low rigid demand. In 2024, the downstream polyether polyol and propylene glycol industries may increase production capacity.

Comparison chart of annual price trends of epoxy propane and downstream propylene glycol in 2023

Import and export: According to customs data, the total export volume of epoxy propane in China from January to December 2023 was 4303976 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 63.48%. According to customs data, the total import volume of epoxy propane in China from January to December 2023 was 345731204 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%. It is expected that the import volume will continue to grow in 2024.

Cost side: Upstream propylene: In 2023, the Chinese propylene market fluctuated and declined. Taking Shandong propylene as an example, the average price at the beginning of the year was 7244.60 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 6868.25 yuan/ton, with a 5.19% decline in the domestic market. Based on a comprehensive analysis of crude oil and supply and demand, it is expected that the center of gravity of propylene prices in 2024 may continue to decline compared to 2023, and the expected decline is relatively controllable.

Comprehensive prediction:

In summary, the expected growth of epoxy propane production capacity in 2024, market competition pressure may increase, and the timing of new production capacity deployment and the start and stop of enterprises are worth paying attention to. The demand side is also expected to increase, and downstream companies may still maintain a cautious and just need to follow up mentality while observing the loose supply side. The use and purchase model, market game consolidation situation may still exist, combined with the cost impact of different processes, It is expected that the epoxy propane market will continue to adjust its operating status in 2024.