Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of 180 CST fuel oil in the mainstream domestic market as of July 31 was 4556.00 yuan/ton, up or down 1.56% compared with 4486.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Fuel oil commodity index on July 31 was 92.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.40% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 100.24% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic fuel oil delivery this month is general, the current mainstream price is about 4550 yuan/ton. In recent weeks, fuel oil upwelling in Asia has reached a new high, which is one of the first signs of the impact of the new international regulations on ship fuel oil to be implemented in 2020.

Industry chain: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.47 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 58.05 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -0.72%; Brent crude oil was 66.55 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month and 64.72 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -2.75%. Several factors, such as tension between the United States and Iraq, the Gulf of Mexico storm and worries about oversupply, affected the trend of international crude oil prices in July. On Wednesday, July 31, the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil increased by 2 yuan/ton, with the winning bidding volume of 0.16 million tons, the bidding volume of 0.16 million tons and the volume of 0.9 million tons. The tendering price of this time is 3656 yuan/ton, with the winning bidding interval of 3666-3706 yuan/ton, and the next bidding time is August 7.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, there were 7 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were MTBE (12.29%), diesel (8.34%) and gasoline (8.07%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling annually, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were methanol (-9.55%), petroleum coke (-6.15%) and Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that this month’s international crude oil shocks, but the ship-fuel market is weak, the overall market turnover is weak, just in need of procurement. Fuel oil market prices are expected to remain stable in August, with some enterprises fluctuating slightly, or in the price range of 4500-4650 yuan/ton.

According to statistics, the domestic price of p-xylene has been stable since the end of June. Recently, the domestic price has been maintained at 7,000 yuan/ton. The price is not hot, mainly because of the joint influence of domestic and foreign factors.

The market price trend of p-xylene is stable, the domestic factor PX start-up rate is more than 70%. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit starts a line. Pengzhou Petrochemical Unit runs steadily, Yangtze Petrochemical PX Unit runs normally, Jinling Petrochemical Unit runs smoothly, Qingdao Lidong Unit runs at full load, Qilu Petrochemical Unit runs steadily, Urumqi Stone Unit runs steadily. About 50% of the chemical plant started operation. The domestic Hengli Petrochemical plant with a capacity of 225,000 tons operated steadily. The domestic supply of p-xylene was normal, and the domestic market price trend was stable. The price of domestic PX products has a high degree of external reserve as high as 60%. The price of PX external market has a great influence on the price of domestic market. Recent price trends of external market are as follows:

The recent start-up rate of paraxylene plant in Asia is more than 70% and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. As can be seen from the above chart, the price trend of PX external market is shocking recently. The closing price of PX external market is 825-827 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 844-846 US dollars/ton CFR China as of 31. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The closing price trend of PX external market is shocking. Swing, domestic PX market prices are affected by the trend of temporary stability.

From the upstream raw materials:

Recent domestic crude oil price closing price shocks, as of 31 U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price was 58.58 U.S. dollars/barrel, Brent crude oil futures price was 65.17 U.S. dollars/barrel, July crude oil closing price shocks, have cost support for downstream petrochemical products, PX market price trend is stable. MX price of PX upstream raw material has been rising slightly in recent years, but the overall trend is not large. The rising price of PX upstream raw material has brought some favorable support to the price of PX market, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market is stable.

As can be seen from the above chart, since mid-May, the production process using MX as raw material has no profit. As a whole, it seems that the profit as a whole is in the loss, which is much smaller than the previous profit.

From the downstream point of view:

Recent downstream PTA market price trend has fallen sharply. By the end of the month, East China PTA market talks were around 5500-5600 yuan. The sharp decline in downstream PTA market price is undoubtedly the negative impact of the PX market. At the end of July, PTA plant start-up rate maintained about 84%, while downstream polyester plant start-up rate was about 84%, textile start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 62%, downstream PTA and polyester products start-up rate decreased, PTA price trend declined, and PX market price maintained a weak shock.

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that the recent price fluctuation of crude oil, together with lower start-up of textile polyester in the lower reaches, normal domestic supply of p-xylene plant, and the PTA industry in the lower reaches have no obvious favorable support. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain low in the near future, and there will be little room for profit floating.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, propylene market prices fluctuated frequently in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7669 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7977 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 4.01%. This month’s low price appeared on July 20 and 21, which was 7652 yuan/ton; this month’s high price appeared on July 11 and 12, which was 8263 yuan/ton, with a monthly amplitude of 7.40%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong started to rise in early July, after two rounds of increase of about 600 yuan/ton. Since the 13th day, the price has gone down, totaling about 650 yuan/ton by the 19th day. From July 22 to 27, the total price rose by 300 yuan/ton. On July 31, it rose again by 50 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is around 7950-8100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7950 yuan/ton. At present, the stock of propylene refinery is mostly on the low side. The good news such as the reduction of PDH unit in a large plant in North China has stimulated the refinery to make a small increase in its offer.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by international trends, crude oil prices adjusted significantly in July, and prices rose sharply at the end of the month, which is good for propylene market. On the downstream side, the domestic acrylic acid Market in July was relatively stable, with a small fluctuation, which had little impact on the propylene market; the propylene oxide market fluctuated significantly this month, with a rapid rise at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.75% and a monthly amplitude of 4.70%. The price fluctuation of epichlorohydrin went up in July, with a monthly increase of 20.55%. At the end of the month, the recent high-level finishing operation is dominant, or has some support for propylene prices; while the recent rise in polypropylene period and spot prices has helped propylene to increase; n-butanol rose in the first half of July, and stabilized in the latter part, which has little impact on propylene; octanol went out of a peak trend in July, After the increase of more than 10%, the price of propylene declined again. Now the price is close to the beginning of the month, which has a negative impact on propylene.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analyst of business cooperative chemical branch thinks that in July, propylene price shocks upward, and now the stock in Shandong is on the low side, and there is a good device reduction, crude oil and polypropylene market prices soar, good propylene market, downstream manufacturers purchase better, it is expected that the price of propylene in Shandong will continue to rise in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the sample data monitored by business associations, from January 1 to June 30, 2019, caprolactam dropped from 12650 yuan/ton to 11766.67 yuan/ton, a total decline of 883.33 yuan/ton, the overall decline of 6.98%. At the beginning of May, it reached a year high of 13950 yuan/ton, up 10.28% from January 1, and then the market began to decline sharply, with prices falling to a new low in recent two years.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In the first half of 2019, the domestic caprolactam market showed an inverted V-shaped trend. In January, the domestic caprolactam market price was mainly consolidated. In the downstream slice market, the willingness of active stock-keeping was not strong, and the purchasing was mainly needed. In the later period, due to the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the market demand was weakening, and the supply and demand in the market were basically balanced. In February-March, due to the centralized start-up of downstream chip manufacturers after the festival, inadequate stock of raw materials before the festival, relatively high purchasing atmosphere, combined with high overall start-up load, market prices continued to rise. In late March, due to the parking and maintenance of some caprolactam plants, supply was slightly tight, and the market maintained a rising trend in April. Early postponement trend, but with the downstream demand gradually weakening, the overall supply and demand returned to stability again, market prices peaked, business returned to wait and see; May-June by the macro-environmental impact, the terminal market demand remained light, although the onset load of upstream and downstream devices in the field fell to a new low in recent years, but the terminal market demand declined. Make caprolactam market prices continue to fall.

Industry chain: The upstream product cyclohexanone market as a whole showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The price of cyclohexanone began to rise to a high level in early January. After the Spring Festival, the demand for cyclohexanone for downstream caprolactam plant stopped and repaired sharply in mid and late March due to the poor demand for chemical fibre orders. The shipment speed of manufacturers slowed down significantly. Cyclohexanone market began to decline, although volatile, the overall situation is still in a downward trend.

In the first half of this year, the upstream related products of downstream PA6 rose or fell differently, which was mainly affected by price fluctuations of caprolactam. At the beginning of the year, supported by raw material pure benzene, it stopped falling flat. After the Spring Festival holidays, it entered a small peak of parking maintenance. Supply was further tight, and the offer went up. Start-up rate has risen in the past two months, and producers have high inventories. The downstream demand is just in need of procurement, the aggregate factory procurement is general, and the follow-up is weak. In the past two months, it has started to weaken, with individual brands bottoming out and rebounding. Downstream purchasing level, maintain just needed. Walking alone is more flexible, but the wait-and-see mood is still heavy.

3. Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the short-term caprolactam market will continue to maintain a weak trend of consolidation, downstream slice demand will remain depressed, Sinopec caprolactam listing prices will rise steadily, leading to a small recovery in market prices, the latter market trend will still be guided by demand, trade disputes on the end of the market impact. It is still evident that with the traditional peak demand season approaching and the recent cost-side pure benzene price sustained upward support, it is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by a steady upward trend in the second half of the year.

On July 29, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 29th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Unit operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Unit started 50% of the operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Unit overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 26, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 7 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 822-824 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 831-833 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 26, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 56.20 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.18 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 63.46 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.07 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA price trend shocks on the 29th day, the average price in East China is around 5500-5600 yuan/ton, as of the 26th domestic PTA start-up rate is about 89%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate remains high, but PTA market prices are slightly lower, and PX market prices are expected to be in the later period. Maintain shock.