According to Bloomberg on August 8, a Saudi official said that as oil prices fell to a seven-month low, Saudi Arabia had called other oil producers to discuss possible countermeasures.

The official, who declined to be named, said Saudi Arabia would not tolerate any further decline in oil prices and was considering all options, but he did not say what specific measures were being discussed.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has cut its oil production beyond what OPEC has agreed with its allies outside the organization.

Oil has been involved in the collapse of global markets caused by international trade tensions, which has raised concerns that it will evolve into a currency war. The worsening economic situation prompted interest rate cuts in New Zealand, India and Thailand this week, amid fears that the economy might fall into recession.

West Texas Intermediate futures rebounded Thursday in Saudi Arabia after falling 4.7% Wednesday. At 1:07 p.m. Singapore time, US benchmark crude oil prices rose 3.2% to $52.72 a barrel.

Helima Croft, chief commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said the meeting planned to take place in Abu Dhabi within a week starting September 9 would be crucial for OPEC + leaders, especially Saudi and Russian energy ministers, because they needed to After the sharp fall in oil prices, relevant signals were sent on production issues.

“It’s been a tough week for oil producers,” Croft said. I don’t think they are complacent about this initiative. I can imagine that Secretary-General Barkindo was having a very intense conversation when he was on the phone with Harid Falkh and Alexander Nowak.

Last week (July 29 – August 2) domestic demand continued to decline, urea market prices continued to fall. On August 5, China’s urea wholesale price index (CNPI) was 1957.31 points, down 13.12 points annually, or 0.67%. It rose 24.31 points, or 1.26% year-on-year, or 94.06 points, or 5.05% in the bi-base period.

On August 5, China’s urea retail price index (CNRI) was 2076.22 points, down 15.09 points, or 0.72%, up 22.80 points, or 1.11%, from a year earlier, and up 171.26 points, or 8.99%, in the bi-base period.

On August 5, China’s Urea Export Price Index (CNEI) was 1864.62 points, up 1.13 points annually, or 0.06%; 13.87 points, or 0.75%; and 5.62 points, or 0.30%, in the bi-base period.

Supply situation

Last week, some domestic urea overhaul enterprises stopped, and the start-up rate decreased. The overall start-up rate of domestic urea enterprises dropped to about 70%, among which the start-up rate of coal enterprises fell to about 69%, and that of gas enterprises rose to about 74%. In terms of raw materials, the domestic coal market was stable and prices were stable last week, while natural gas market prices rose last week.

Demand situation

In agriculture, domestic demand for agriculture has declined. On the industrial side, the new fertilizer sheet of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises in autumn has basically ended, the pressure of environmental protection is still sustained, the construction of compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants remains low, and the demand for urea is weak. Internationally, there is no obvious demand support in the international market after the labeling.

international market

Last week, when India’s bidding period ended, the international market was well supplied and prices fell. Among them, the black sea small particle urea FOB price has dropped 8 US dollars/ton compared with the low and high-end prices, which is 255-257 US dollars/ton; the Baltic small particle urea FOB low-end price has fallen 5 US dollars/ton, the high-end price has fallen 1 US dollars/ton, which is 260-265 US dollars/ton; the Middle East small particle urea FOB price has remained stable, which is 275 US dollars/ton.- US$280 per ton; China’s FOB price of small granular urea has fallen by US$6 per ton from the low-end price and US$4 per ton from the high-end price to US$275-278 per ton.

Domestic situation

Last week, urea prices in various regions of the country fell mainly on a weekly basis. Among them, the prices of Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu and Xinjiang fell by 3.3-50 yuan/ton, while those of Hebei and Yunnan rose by 3.1 yuan/ton and 29 yuan/ton respectively, while those of the rest of the region remained stable.

Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic agricultural fertilizer has entered the end stage, demand has been reduced; in industry, environmental protection has maintained a high pressure, fertilizer demand has basically released in autumn, compound fertilizer enterprises are mainly on the lookout, the start-up rate is difficult to rise, and the overall demand is weak. On the export side, the international market is oversupply, prices are falling, and domestic supply opportunities are small. In summary, it is expected that urea prices will keep a downward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the autumn fertilizer market sales.

On August 7, the PX Commodity Index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 7th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field, 50% of Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started construction, one line of Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started operation, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily for the time being due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 6, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 3 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 775-777 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 794-796 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 6, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 53.63 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 1.06 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 58.94 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.87 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which has lost some cost support for downstream petrochemical products prices. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporary. Steady. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined on the 7th day, the average price in East China was raised near 5100-5250 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 95% on the 6th day, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 85%, the downstream production and sales rate did not change much, but PTA market prices were slightly lower, and it is expected that PX market prices will be maintained in the later period. Keep oscillating.

On August 6, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 104.72, down 0.45 points from yesterday, down 25.43% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 95.41% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid declined slightly on August 6. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11540 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the recent market situation is general. Recently, due to poor downstream demand, some hydrogen is available. Fluoric acid manufacturers slightly cut prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices fell. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10500-11500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 11000-12000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price declined, spot supply is normal, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is poor, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 50%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on August 5 was 117116.67 yuan/ton, which was 2.36% higher than 114416.67 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, 30.84% higher than that at the beginning of the year and 14.92% higher than that on the previous trading day. Since July 2, nickel has risen to the highest price of 118,466 yuan/ton in the year on July 19, followed by a slight fluctuation in the high level. Today’s nickel price is affected by market rumors that Indonesia has banned the export of raw ore, resulting in concerns about nickel supply. The price has risen sharply again by nearly three points. The price of the main 1910 contract of Shanghai nickel futures also rose rapidly, reaching a maximum of 1,19360 yuan/ton, a new high since June 27, 2018, with an increase of more than 4%. Prior to that, the daily line had reached “four lianyang”.

According to the current nickel futures table of business associations, the spot price of nickel is higher than the main contract price in the near future, the main contract price is the price of nickel in the next two months, and the spot price is higher than the main contract price of nickel, indicating that people are still cautious about the future price of nickel.

It is rumored that the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia has signed a decree banning the export of raw ore.

In mid-July, rumors that the Indonesian government might resume the export ban in 2022 triggered market concerns and led to a sharp rise in nickel prices. But there were rumors that the ban would not be enforced until 2022, and many doubted whether it would be reintroduced.

However, according to market rumors, the Nickel Mining Association informed all its members on the 4th that the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia had signed a ministerial decree banning the export of raw ore, and the specific content would be announced to the outside world on Monday (5). Some domestic nickel mine agents did learn from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines that the export of raw ore may be banned, but whether the final implementation and execution time have not yet been finalized, still need to wait for the actual announcement results. But opinions vary. At present, the most striking rumor is that it can be banned as early as October, and that it can be banned in November or January next year. Encouraged by the news, nickel prices soared again.

Another sudden earthquake in Indonesia

On August 2, Indonesia experienced another earthquake of magnitude 6.9. According to the US Geological Survey, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck the waters off Sumatra Island, Indonesia, on 2 July, and Indonesian authorities have issued a tsunami warning. Recent earthquakes occurred continuously in Indonesia. On June 24, earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.1 and 7.3 occurred successively in Papua and Bandahai provinces of Indonesia, and on July 14, an earthquake with magnitude of 7.1 occurred in Hamah, Indonesia. Frequent earthquakes have caused persistent concerns about the supply of nickel ore.

However, the earthquake in Indonesia has now subsided and cancelled two hours after the tsunami warning was issued. It is also known that there are two ferronickel factories in Wandan Province, which have an average monthly output of about 500 metal tons, accounting for less than 1% of the high-nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia, and have no impact on the disturbance of supply. Big.

Future Market Forecast

History is always amazingly similar. The surge in nickel prices in July was also affected by the Indonesian or resumed export ban, the Indonesian earthquake and the Philippine mineral censorship. After adjusting nickel prices for a period of time, with the resumption of export ban boots or landing in Indonesia, another earthquake hit Indonesia, and nickel prices were pushed up again. Out of the independent market. Macroscopically, the impact of the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on China again, the export data of RMB breaking 7 bonds, the continuing trade war, affecting the domestic economy, and the demand for stainless steel downstream is not optimistic. Generally speaking, the rumors of Indonesia’s ban on mining have been expected in the market. The shortage of nickel supply or the existence of nickel supply have supported nickel prices. However, the nickel price should not be overly optimistic in the case of poor environmental and economic background. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to rise in the short term or still, but the increase is limited.