First, the price trend According to business data monitoring shows: Under the influence of the international economic environment, the domestic zinc price shock fell after May. As at May 19, the price of zinc 21640.00 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of this month zinc price 22133.33 yuan/ton fell, a decrease of 2.23%. Zinc prices rose 3.11% from the same period last year.

Overall May zinc market shock fell, zinc market bearish.

Second, the market trend analysis

Product aspects:

Time

LME Futures Market

Shanghai Futures Market

Inventory

Price

Inventory

Price

2019-5-1

85050 tons

USD 2825/ton

36469 tons

21660 yuan/ton

2019-5-20

104850 tons

USD 2563/ton

29422 tons

20900 yuan/ton

Change

19800 tons

-258 USD/ton

-7047 tons

-760 yuan/ton

© 2019.5 Business Club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the chart, May LME market Zinc ingot inventory surged, zinc ingot supply growth, dragging down the price of zinc market, zinc price fell sharply; Shanghai futures market Zinc ingot inventory has dropped significantly, the price of zinc has a certain positive impact, but the global market zinc supply is still growing state, the zinc market formed a bearish.

International Enterprises: Statistics show that Lundin Company produced 40446 tons of zinc concentrate in the first quarter, an increase of 10% year-on-week, exceeding the company’s expected output.

Zinc concentrate production growth exceeded expectations, zinc market supply increased, zinc city to maintain an oversupply, zinc city to form a greater bearish.

Data statistics: The international lead and Zinc research Group (ILZSG) said in Thursday that global demand for refined zinc was expected to be over supply in 2019 and that there would be a shortage of 121,000 tonnes in the market. ILZSG said the demand for refined zinc in 2019 was estimated to increase by 0.6% to 13.77 million tonnes and had remained stable over the past four years. Zinc market expected to rise on the price of zinc has a certain positive.

But the benefits are limited and it is difficult to form long-term support for zinc prices. Data from the Ministry of Information and Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2019, China’s zinc production of 1.31 million tons, an increase of 5.1%. The decrease of zinc production in China has certain benefits to the domestic zinc market.

But the global zinc market oversupply situation, the domestic zinc market is difficult to have a better performance.

Sino-US Trade war: May 9–The U.S. government announced that the tariff rate on the 200 billion dollar list of goods imported from China has increased from 10% to 25% since May 10. May 13, China’s State Council tariff committee issued a notice that from 0 o’clock on the June 1, will be imposed tariffs on the 60 billion of dollars list of United States goods, the increase in tariff rates, respectively, the implementation of 25%, 20% or 10% of the levy tariff. 5% tariffs continue to be imposed on items that have previously been imposed on tariff lines of 5%.

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Sino-US trade disputes escalated, the macroeconomic environment deteriorated, the non-ferrous metal market became negative, zinc demand bearish, zinc prices rose powerless.

Trump delays imposing tariffs on cars U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to delay the decision to impose tariffs on imported cars and parts for six months to temporarily avoid expanding global trade disputes, foreign media four reported. Trump’s delay in imposing tariffs on cars comes at a time when the United States is trying to reach a potential trade deal with China to end escalating conflict. The suspension of the imposition of tariffs on cars in the United States has created a greater boon for the auto market.

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With global car sales continuing to decline, tariff policies will only ensure that demand for zinc in the car market does not decline significantly, making it difficult to guarantee higher demand for zinc.

Third, the outlook of the aftermarket Business analyst Baijia said: From the inventory data can be seen, the global supply of zinc market has risen sharply, zinc city is still in an oversupply state, although there is a forecast of 2019 zinc market demand rise, but small demand rise is difficult to form an effective support for the continued rise in zinc prices. The escalation of the Sino-US trade war has worsened the macroeconomic environment and led to the deterioration of the zinc market, although the United States has delayed its policy of tariff increases on the European Union and Japan in order to ease global trade disputes, but today, as the global car continues to decline, tariff policies have only slowed the decline in car sales, and demand for zinc has not increased. The positive for zinc market is limited. Overall zinc market is greater than good, after the price of zinc rose weak. Expected after the market zinc price shock fell.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Iran has launched a new strategy to export crude oil and change oil export destinations after the United States imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, an Iranian maritime official said 18th. Hadi Hakosenas, deputy Director of maritime affairs at the Iranian Port and Maritime Organization, is the source, and the semi-official Iranian Labour news agency reported: “The Iranian Ministry of Oil’s strategy of exporting crude oil and refined oil has changed … Perhaps the destination for exporting crude oil from our port has also changed.

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”

Hakosenas did not elaborate on the new strategy and new destinations. Iran reached a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue with six countries, including the United States, in July 2015, promising to limit its nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions on it by the international community. The United States announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal last May 8 and resumed sanctions against it.

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Reuters reported in April that the resumption of sanctions by the United States had reduced Iranian crude oil exports from more than 2.5 million barrels a day to about 1 million barrels. The US side recently lifted the sanctions exemption for 8 Iranian crude oil importers, seeking to “clear 0″ Iranian crude oil exports.

Iran’s crude oil exports fell to 500,000 barrels a day in May, Reuters reported 18th.

The Iranian government has stopped informing the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries of crude oil production. “It cannot be denied that there are fewer exports of crude oil and refined oil than ever before, but we have absolutely not stopped,” Hakosenas said. ”

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to Oil and Gas Pipeline News, OPEC’s oil production declined in April, and the organization expects demand to increase in 2019, suggesting a contraction in supply.

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In its monthly oil report, OPEC said its daily production fell 3,000 barrels to 30.31 million barrels annually in April. Despite a slight drop in output, Saudi Arabia’s daily output has also fallen by 45,000 barrels.

Meanwhile, global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.21 million barrels a day this year to an average of 99.94 million barrels a day, and OPEC oil demand will increase by 300,000 barrels a day to 30.6 million barrels a day in 2019.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

OPEC also expects US oil production to decline. This is due to constraints that limit the ability to transport Permian oil to the Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States, as well as the impact of lower drilling and completion activities in major shale blocks.

The daily output of shale oil in the United States is expected to increase by 1.32 million barrels in 2019 compared with the same period last year, reaching an average of 7.88 million barrels, a decrease of 280,000 barrels compared with the forecast in 2018.

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Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the PC market continued to be weak in mid-May. As of May 16, domestic producers and traders offered an average price of about 18,900 yuan/ton for Bayer 2805.

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II. Cause Analysis

Since this month, the upstream trend of bisphenol A in PC has been weaker. Businessmen are not confident enough, trading resistance is greater, intermediaries cut prices and take orders, prices are running at a low level. Downstream factories just need to purchase, demand has not improved. The on-site wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the expectation of the future market may be poor, and the cost support for the domestic PC market is not good. The operating rate of PC devices in China is general, but the stock pressure increases in the traditional overhaul peak season, and the main theme of the contradiction between supply and demand remains unchanged. Businessmen’s psychology is generally bearish, and the unstable external news aggravates the negative market mentality. Downstream demand has not improved, PC offer is weak and deadlocked.

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3. Future Market Forecast

PC analysts of business associations believe that the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic PC market is prominent in mid-May, and the turnover is weak. External news turmoil intensified and offer was weak and deadlocked. It is expected that the recent trend is likely to be weak and difficult to change.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

On May 14, the PX commodity index was 60.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.41% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 31.72% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

On the 15th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units were running steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market, the market of p-xylene was under normal operation. Price trend is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On May 14, the market price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 29 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 845-847 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 864-866 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

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On May 14, the price of WTI crude oil in June rose to $61.78 per barrel, an increase of $0.74. The price of Brent crude oil in July rose to $71.24 per barrel, an increase of $1.01. The rising trend of crude oil price has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has stabilized temporarily, PTA price declined on the 15th day. The average price of East China is raised near 6550-6650 yuan/ton. As of the 14th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price has not changed much, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.