On February 7, the rare earth index was 338, unchanged from yesterday, 66.20% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 24.72% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 367500 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 645000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide increased by 2000 yuan / ton, by 5000 yuan / ton to 281000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.705 million yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 330000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 1500 yuan / ton to 293500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 358000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1685000 yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earths in the rare earth market is temporarily stable. The supply policy of domestic heavy and rare earths market is normal. Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, the domestic supply is reduced, and the price trend of domestic heavy and rare earths is stable. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has not changed much in the near future, the market trend of PR nd series products has increased slightly, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price has increased slightly. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturers reasonably controlled the sales. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation, some enterprises have not yet started construction, but the demand in the downstream has not changed much in the near future, and most rare earth prices are stable.

Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has always adhered to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoted the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to use rare earth resources and products to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world, so as to promote China’s economy and the world economy We will play a positive role in our development. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and 2019 is the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with domestic support for the export market of the rare earth industry, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high, while the price of light rare earth will mainly fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, zinc prices plummeted after the opening on February 3. On February 3, the spot price of zinc was 17683.33 yuan / ton, and the price of zinc fell by 800 yuan / ton, or 4.72%. Zinc prices plummeted, zinc market bearish obvious.

2、 Market trend analysis

Market of domestic zinc enterprises

During the Spring Festival and the anti epidemic period, most of the zinc smelting enterprises were in normal production or had personnel on duty, and some enterprises resumed work on February 10. However, due to the limited transportation, it is difficult for manufacturers to deliver goods; in terms of raw materials, most smelting enterprises have inventory from January to February, and the supply of raw materials is stable. Affected by the logistics and transportation, the situation of finished products piling up in the plant area often occurs. In the downstream, most of the galvanizing plants went to work on February 10. The sales situation of zinc ingots was poor, and the social inventory of zinc ingots increased a lot. In general, the supply of zinc is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price of zinc is under great pressure.

International LME Market

It can be seen from the figure that during the Spring Festival, the price of zinc in LME market plummeted. The pessimism spread in zinc market, and zinc price plummeted all the way. Affected by the epidemic situation, the market’s demand for zinc is expected to decline, and it is bearish to the macro-economy. The market’s risk aversion psychology is prominent. Financial customers mainly short and maintain their value, and the future market is bearish.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business association, believes that during the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic situation, the logistics and transportation are limited, the zinc enterprises are difficult to ship, the zinc smelter’s finished product inventory is often overstocked, the downstream customers stop production frequently, and the downstream demand drops; in terms of supply, the zinc smelter generally has inventory to maintain normal production, and there are more on duty personnel during the Spring Festival, and the zinc ingot production is basically normal, The supply of zinc ingots is sufficient, and the social stock of zinc ingots has increased significantly; the outbreak of the epidemic, the market risk aversion mentality is prominent, financial customers mainly short and maintain the value, the external quotation fell sharply during the Spring Festival, increasing the negative pressure on the domestic zinc market. Generally speaking, affected by the epidemic situation, the demand for zinc ingots has declined for a short time, the risk aversion psychology of zinc city is prominent, zinc market is short more, the supply of zinc market is normal, the stock of zinc ingots has increased, the contradiction between supply and demand of zinc market is prominent in the short term, the power of zinc price rising is insufficient, and it is expected that zinc price will rise difficultly in February, with a large downward pressure.

1、 Price trend

Price increase of regions from the beginning of January to the 31st of January

Zhejiang 2600-2700 yuan / ton 2800-2900 yuan / ton 7.69%

Jiangsu 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2650-2700 yuan / ton 10.42%

Shandong 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 12.5%

Henan 2300-2350 yuan / ton 2400-2450 yuan / ton 4.35%

Hebei 2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 10%

South China 2600-2700 yuan / ton 2700-2750 yuan / ton 3.85%

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise in January, with an average price of 2483 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2750 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 10.74% in the whole month.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: due to the Early Spring Festival holiday in 2020, affected by the factors such as stock arrangement and downstream stock preparation of enterprises before the festival, the overall stock position of domestic acetic acid market continues, and there is a certain shortage of spot supply, so the price of acetic acid continues to rise, and during the Spring Festival, all acetic acid enterprises still maintain a relatively high rate of operation. Affected by the recent pneumonia epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended, and the traffic and logistics around the country are limited, and the shipment in some areas is not smooth, and the market supply may decline.

Industry chain: in the upstream, methanol market is in shock and consolidation, and the pre festival market transaction is stagnant, at present, about 2242 yuan / ton; in the downstream, acetate, vinyl acetate and PTA industries are gradually entering the off-market period, with a good degree of stock before the festival, which is good for the price support of acetic acid, but with the extension of the Spring Festival and the development of pneumonia, the end of the market will be no longer good for the support.

International: at present, the international acetic acid market is affected by the high price of raw materials methanol, and the price of acetic acid is firm, among which the price of acetic acid in North America is about 750 / ton; the price of acetic acid in Asia is about 340-395 yuan / ton; the current price of acetic acid in Europe is about 620 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetate analysts of the business association, due to the extension of the Spring Festival holiday and the impact of the pneumonia epidemic, the domestic acetic acid market is still flat, the downstream market and traders have a high degree of completion of goods preparation before the festival, and it is difficult to improve the demand to a large extent in the short term. In addition, due to the Limited Logistics and transportation, it is expected to run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 566 yuan / ton on January 13 and 565 yuan / ton on January 21, with a price drop of 0.29%. So far, the ammonium sulphate commodity index on January 21 is 47.28, which is the same as yesterday, 55.51% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.00% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: near the Spring Festival, at present, the ammonium sulfate Market is light running, and the price fluctuation is not big. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-730 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-680 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the price of raw materials is stable, and the market is unchanged. Lower reaches compound fertilizer enterprise market weak reorganization. The holiday is coming and the demand for products is weakening. Some enterprises are overhauled during the Spring Festival.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17) in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the chemical industry sector, the top three commodities rising are acetone (4.08%), acetic acid (3.92%) and dichloromethane (3.63%). There are 24 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are glycol (- 5.93%), propane (- 5.26%), and ammonium chloride (- 3.91%). This week’s average was – 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association think that the market trend of ammonium sulphate before the festival is weak and the transaction is limited. Coking grade ammonium sulphate is in weak shock operation, and domestic grade ammonium sulphate is mainly transported in port. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China this weekend was 503.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the average ex factory price of 503.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 64.88% from last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur market was in weak and stable operation, the port inventory was high, there was a lack of information guidance in the field, the downstream construction was low, and the main thing was to wait and see, and the price was in shock and consolidation operation. At present, the supply and demand of sulfur market is weak. Due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the downstream demand is in a low state, and the delivery performance of refineries in various regions is poor. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the festival atmosphere is strong, and the market is mainly stable. Refineries in various regions adjust their quotation according to their own delivery situation in the week, including the quotation of solid and liquid sulfur in East China is stable, and the price of liquid sulfur in Shandong is reduced by 30 yuan / ton Meanwhile, the price of solid and liquid sulfur in refineries in North China was reduced by 30 yuan / ton at the same time.

Industry chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market is light in terms of investment, and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching. Although there are downstream enterprises preparing goods before the festival, the overall market is still weak in terms of supply and demand, with limited support. The domestic market is operating in a differentiated way, with local market ups and downs showing each other. The acid companies also maintain stable shipments, keep inventories at a reasonable level, and have no obvious intention of price adjustment. Some of the main acid plants in Shandong continue to raise their acid prices, while others remain on the sidelines. Due to the weather, there are certain limitations in transportation. In addition, with the Festival approaching, acid companies dare not adjust their prices rashly, and the market is mostly stuck. Considering the impact of environmental protection and weather, there will be no obvious change before the year, and the later period will be acid market or weak finishing.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business club, at present, the market demand is low, the port inventory is still high, the mainstream factories are well stocked, the market lacks the guidance of substantive information, the attitude of the operators is different, and the market is expected to run stably, depending on the situation of the factories in the future.