I. price trend

The TDI commodity index on November 25 was 61.38, down 1.23 points from yesterday, 75.25% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and 2.01% higher than 60.17, the lowest point on February 22, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: according to the statistics of the business agency, the trend of TDI price in East China market was reduced narrowly on the 25th, and the average price of TDI in East China market was 11600 yuan / ton, down 1.97%. TDI market in East China is weak, the atmosphere in the market remains light, the operation is sluggish, the supply side information is not clear temporarily, all parties pay attention to the factory information, the overall offer of the industry is stable and wait-and-see, a single negotiation, negotiation of shipment is the main thing. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 11300-11500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on the previous trading day, the listing price of toluene of Sinopec’s enterprises was flat today. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises was raised today, about 5700 yuan / ton. The quotation of traders in East China was stable, about 5750 yuan / ton. In terms of nitric acid, the price trend in East China is stable at present, and the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to be stable. Nitric acid market demand is still weak, the market is weak and stable, and weak consolidation is expected in the later stage.

Industry: last week, the domestic TDI market was weak and volatile. There was a lot of bad news from the suppliers. They continued to be willing to ship. Some factories abandoned the price and guaranteed the quantity. The overall market mentality was frustrated. They continued to report a low profit and delivered the goods. The focus of the delivery and investment moved down slightly. The downstream psychology was still strong. Only a small amount of follow-up was needed. The overall mentality of the operators was pessimistic. It is expected that the domestic TDI market will be weak and volatile this week. They will pay attention to the information from the suppliers 。

III. price forecast

TDI analysts of business club think that TDI market is waiting to be sorted out, the supply side information is not clear for the moment, and the downstream follow-up is still sluggish. It is expected that this week TDI market is weak to be sorted out, and pay attention to the factory information side guidance.

I. price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to move forward this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1783.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1788.33 yuan / ton, up or down 0.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market of sodium pyrosulfite is still depressed this week. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1900 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1800 yuan / ton. The production of enterprises is stable, and the inventory is relatively sufficient. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: the upstream soda ash price continued to run at the bottom, the sulfur price fell again by 5.42% this week, the processing raw material cost continued to be weak, the overall procurement of downstream trade subjects was cautious, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite was under pressure.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that raw material cost continues to be weak, the main body of trade purchases cautiously, and the market demand continues to be weak. In the short term, the overall price of pyrosulfite will continue to move forward at the bottom.

Acetone: since November, the acetone market has once again entered the upward channel, with tight supply pushing up and soaring all the way. Taking the quotation of East China market as an example, according to the monitoring of business agency, the quotation of East China market at the end of October was 4200 yuan / ton, up 33.3% to 5600 yuan / ton so far; the figure below shows the quotation trend of acetone factory in East China in the past month:

The main reason for the sharp increase in acetone is the shortage of goods. At present, the port inventory is still at a low level. Although there are a small amount of goods in the early stage, most of them are booked in advance and digested in advance after entering the circulation market. In addition, the liquid level of mainstream petrochemical enterprises is low. In November, the Shiyou plant was shut down for one week, and the whole factory in China is also under construction, which makes the supply of spot resources in the market tense and large The attitude of the customers is positive, the offer is firm and powerful, the inquiry and stock up of the intermediate traders are also increased, and the overall market is bullish. From the cost point of view, pure benzene and propylene are relatively stable and weak consolidation in the near future, with little support for acetone. Thus, the profit space of acetone is relatively high, but the price of phenol products synchronized with phenol ketone unit is not optimistic in the near future, so the profit of phenol ketone manufacturers is reduced.

Isopropanol: since November, the market of isopropanol has been affected by the sharp rise of raw material acetone, which is on the rise. At present, the isopropanol manufacturers do not report the closing price. The industry is more cautious and wait-and-see. The traders hold limited goods and are reluctant to sell. The market of isopropanol is constantly reaching a new high, and the market of raw material acetone is rising day by day, which makes it difficult for downstream enterprises to make an offer. According to the cost analysis, the acetone market in East China is 5600 yuan / ton, and the isopropanol market in Jiangsu Province is 7000 yuan / ton. The profit of isopropanol is lower than that at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the market offer in East China in early November was 5750 yuan / ton, up 18% to 6750 yuan / ton so far;

According to the price trend chart of fluorite, the price trend of fluorite is stable. According to statistics, the average price of fluorite in China as of November 20 is 2861.66 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite in China is mainly stable. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700 yuan / ton- 3000 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-2900 yuan / ton.

In the near future, the domestic fluorite price has strong intention of “price fixing”, and the price trend is mainly stable. According to the strict inspection of national environmental protection, the operation rate of fluorite is average, and some domestic mines and flotation units are closed, which reduces the spot supply of fluorite in the site. Some small and medium-sized enterprises stop production, some goods holding businesses still have the intention to hold the price, and the price of fluorite in China has not continued to decline. In addition, as the temperature drops, the northern fluorite manufacturers are gradually restricted, the supply of domestic fluorite has declined, the price of fluorite in the site has been supported to a certain extent, and the price of fluorite has remained stable. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid and the market of refrigerants in the lower reaches have not changed much, which has a certain negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the domestic fluorite price is lack of power. In the near future, hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry have no obvious positive support, and fluorite price is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the later period.

Fluorite price has not improved temporarily, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is fluctuating.

As of 20 days, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9600 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is weak. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia is 8500-9500 yuan / ton. The supply of hydrofluoric acid market is normal The market price is low.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is about 60%. The enterprises report that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site is normal at present. In the near future, the distribution of goods in the site is general. In the near future, due to the small change of downstream demand and the support of upstream fluorite price, the domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers report serious losses, but the favorable support is insufficient. The price of hydrofluoric acid is stable, but some manufacturers report that With the decrease of fluorite supply, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is on the rise. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain the air-conditioning, and the demand changes little. The main price of domestic large enterprises is 13000-14000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal keeps low, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. However, there is an upward trend in the transaction price on the spot. The merchants purchase on demand. In the near future, due to the normal supply of goods, some manufacturers reflect a decrease, and the supply of fluorite in the north is gradually declining. It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will rebound and rise in the later period.

Market Overview

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, after November, the dichloromethane market in Shandong continues to rise. As of November 19, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong has increased by 7.69% compared with November 1. At present, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3080 yuan / ton.

quotations analysis

Product: at present, the overall start-up of dichloromethane market in Shandong Province is relatively low, and the spot supply in the market is in short supply, but it is in the traditional off-season of the market, the downstream market has a flat intention of receiving goods, and the trading atmosphere is weak. In terms of enterprise maintenance, Shandong Jinling 440000 T / T annual plant maintenance to No. 20, Shandong Dongyue 280000 T / a plant maintenance is expected to be completed around No. 20, Luxi Chemical industry starts 60%, at present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3080-3150 yuan / ton; the price of East China is about 2900-3050 yuan / ton; Jiangxi Liwen is about 3200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, affected by the cooling and central heating in the northern region, the natural gas market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operators have a good mentality. At present, it is about 4090 yuan / ton; the supply of liquid chlorine market has increased, and the enterprise’s quotation has continued to decline, and at present, it is about 500-800 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the maintenance of domestic refrigerant market led to a slight decline in the supply of the industry, and the factory price of enterprises recovered; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just needed to be flat, and the price of dichloromethane was generally supported.

Forecast for future market

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, the shortage of spot market is the main reason for the sustained soaring price of dichloromethane in the near future. With the centralized resumption of production around No. 20 in Shandong Province, the market supply will gradually recover, or there will be a situation of supply exceeding demand. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be high in the short term, and will gradually decline in the long term.