1、 Price trend

 

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of diammonium phosphate on December 23 was 2250 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of diammonium phosphate on December 31 was 2200 yuan / ton, down 2.22%. On December 31, DAP commodity index was 65.62, which was flat compared with yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 36.28% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: this week, the demand for DAP is weak, the trend of DAP is declining, the market is light, and the manufacturers continue to wait and see. Maintenance of some enterprise devices. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is quoted at 2250-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Northwest China is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: this week, the phosphorus ore market continued to maintain stable consolidation, weak operation, and the supply of goods was basically normal. At present, the price of phosphate rock in Guizhou has remained stable as a whole, and the price of low-grade phosphate rock of some manufacturers has slightly decreased by 30-50 yuan / ton. This week, the trend of domestic sulfur price was reduced by a narrow range, and the quotation of sulfur for individual refineries was temporarily stable according to their own shipment. On the port side, the inventory is still high, with small factories and traders occasionally entering the market for enquiries and relatively limited transactions. In the past week, refineries around the country continued to maintain low inventory operation, because environmental protection and production restriction problems still exist, downstream plants still maintained low level of operation, and major production enterprises priced down to ease the inventory sales pressure. At present, the market of liquid ammonia has maintained a narrow adjustment. The enterprises mainly sell products at guaranteed prices, and some of them give way to profits. Most of the units are converted to urea production, and the output of liquid ammonia is controlled to decline, so as to balance the overstock of the manufacturers’ inventory.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are 22 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are respectively trichloromethane (10.53%), epichlorohydrin (4.42%) and propane (3.82%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 5.63%), phosphate rock (- 3.20%), lithium carbonate (- 3.06%). This week’s average was 0.11%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Analysts of DAP of business association think that the market of DAP is weak in supply and demand, weak in export market and weak in market trading, which leads to the continuous downturn of prices. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will not change in the later period, and it is still weak. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamic situation of raw materials and downstream demand.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 30, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.

 

After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In 2019, the price fluctuation is not big and the market will not rise or fall.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Industrial chain:

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

From the perspective of raw materials, starting from the middle of October, the coal tar market showed a downward trend, and the price reached a low point within the year. There was a slight increase at the end of November, but not a big increase. As of the end of November, the price is still lower than the end of last month. In the later stage, although the coal tar market is in short supply at this stage, it is expected that the price increase of coal tar in December will be limited and the market price of carbon black will not be adequately supported due to the difficulty of changing the weak situation of the downstream carbon black and coal asphalt.

 

In terms of demand, the main downstream operating rate is lower than the same period last year. In November, the operating rate of all steel tire and semi steel tire industry was higher than that in October. However, compared with the same period last year, the operating rate of half steel tire enterprises was slightly lower in 11 this year; the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 5.54% lower than the same period last year, with a large drop. On the whole, the downstream demand in November this year is lower than that in November last year. It is expected that the starting of tires in December will be stable, while the demand for carbon black is still weak.

 

listed company:

 

In the first three quarters of 2019, the net profit of domestic carbon black listed companies all showed a significant negative growth. Black cat’s operating net profit fell by 128.84%, the only one of the four listed companies with negative net profit. Among the listed enterprises, Jinneng technology still has the highest operating revenue and the smallest decline in net profit. Its operating revenue is 6.208 billion yuan, down 2.24% year-on-year; its net profit is 593 million yuan, down 35.94% year-on-year. Shanxi Yongdong is the only private enterprise with a positive growth in its business income, which is 2.133 billion yuan, up 13.42% year on year.

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In the first three quarters of 2019, the profits of domestic carbon black enterprises plummeted or even lost money, which was mainly affected by the low delivery price of domestic carbon black, while the low price of carbon black was mainly affected by overcapacity, homogenization and vicious competition, high-temperature coal tar price relative to carbon black price, insufficient consumption power in the automobile industry, low tire market demand, passive bargaining power and poor unity, and low international crude oil price Shock and other factors.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: carbon black market downturn will continue at the end of the year.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business agency, the price of dry process aluminum fluoride in China fell slightly in December. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 9166 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the month was 9033 yuan / ton, down 1.45%.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

In December, the price of aluminum fluoride fell, and some aluminum fluoride manufacturers lowered the factory price: at present, the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 9000 yuan / ton, the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8600 yuan / ton.

 

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Industry chain: in December, the market price of domestic hydrofluoric acid keeps rising, and up to now, the market price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 10240 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the market has improved. Because the downstream demand is not small, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is stable, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. In the first half of December, the price of aluminum fluoride continued to decline in November, and in the middle of December, the price of aluminum fluoride manufacturers rose and fell with each other.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, the upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid price keeps rising this month, but the upward pressure is relatively large at present, while the aluminum fluoride market price is basically stable, and it is expected that the aluminum fluoride price will keep stable in January.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In 2019, hydrogen peroxide experienced two big ups and downs. After the big price rise and ushered in a big fall. Overall, compared with the big fall in 2018, the price of hydrogen peroxide in 2019 is still rising at a high level. It is still a certain distance from the high price of 2000 yuan at the end of 2017 and 1600 yuan at the beginning of 2018. In 2019, the highest price of hydrogen peroxide broke through 1300 yuan / ton, with a maximum increase of nearly 40%. Two rounds of declines dragged down the increase, and the overall increase of hydrogen peroxide in the whole year exceeded 20%.

 

In 2019, the trend of hydrogen peroxide market presents M-type trend, with two rounds of roller coaster market. It can be roughly divided into two stages, the two stages are basically similar, both of which show a sharp rise followed by a sharp fall. The first stage: from January to July, the price of the first round of roller coaster rose first and then fell, with an overall increase of 1.94%. The second stage: from August to December, in the second round of roller coaster, the price rose first and then fell. The overall increase was higher than that in the first round, up 16.79%.

 

The first stage: from January to July, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 860 yuan / ton on January 1, and 876 yuan / ton on July 31, with a price increase of 1.94%.

 

In January, the performance of hydrogen peroxide was poor, and the price dropped sharply. The main quotation was 750-850 yuan / ton, and the price dropped 100 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, hydrogen peroxide started to rise, mainly due to the environmental warning, the manufacturer shut down, the supply decreased, and the terminal demand improved in March and April. The manufacturers raised their prices one after another. The price of hydrogen peroxide continued to rise to 1200 yuan / ton in the middle of April, and the price per ton rose nearly 500 yuan, or nearly 50%.

 

After the first round of sharp rise, the prices fell one after another. Part of the manufacturers shut down for maintenance, and hydrogen peroxide restarted the rising market, which continued to run at a high level. At the end of May, the high platform diving market was started, which fell to July. The price fell back to 1000 yuan / ton, down 20%. In July, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced ups and downs. In July, when the demand was low, the price rose to 1000 yuan, but the terminal market continued to be low. Near the end of the month, the soaring market was hit back to its original shape, fell sharply, to 800 yuan overnight, and fell by 11% in a single day, down 9% from the beginning of the month.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

The second stage: from August to December, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 893 yuan / ton on August 1, and 1043 yuan / ton on December 26, with a price increase of 16.79%.

 

In August, the supply of hydrogen peroxide was tight, and the market rose all the way. A set of hydrogen peroxide device was shut down in Luxi, Shandong Province. In the middle of the year, there was a typhoon and rainstorm in Shandong Province. Some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers began to reduce production and even stop for maintenance. The supply declined, and the manufacturers increased the price of hydrogen peroxide one after another. The price rose 22.7% in August. In September, hydrogen peroxide started to decline, with the price dropping 6.4%.

 

In October, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stopped for maintenance one after another, and the manufacturers in Tianjin, Shanxi, Shandong and other places carried out parking maintenance one after another. Hydrogen peroxide ended the depressed market in September, rebounded to the bottom, ushered in a sustained surge in the market, singing all the way from the end of the holiday to October 22, the price soared more than 30%. From October 23, hydrogen peroxide dived into the water again, falling all the way to December 26. The overall price of hydrogen peroxide fell from 1500 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton, with a drop of more than 30%. As much as it rose, so much as it fell.

 

In 2019, the sharp rise and fall of hydrogen peroxide are mainly affected by supply and demand. In terms of supply, the annual new capacity of hydrogen peroxide is as follows:

 
downstream

 

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Caprolactam: in the first half of 2019, the caprolactam market was basically consistent with the hydrogen peroxide Market, rising first and then falling, with an overall decline of 6.98%. They all started to rise in February, and continued to rise in March and April. In early May, they reached an annual high of 13950 yuan / ton, up 10.28% from January 1. Then it fell rapidly, falling nearly 16% as of June 30. In the second half of the year, the market trend of caprolactam and hydrogen peroxide was similar, but the increase did not reach the height of hydrogen peroxide, with an overall decline of 8.12%. It is also a rising trend in the third quarter and a sharp decline in the fourth quarter. The only difference is that caprolactam rose in December, while hydrogen peroxide still fell.

 

Papermaking industry: in the first quarter of 2019, driven by the peak demand season, the price of corrugated base paper reached the highest point in the whole year, and then continued to fall in the second and third quarters, forming the lowest point of corrugated base paper price in the whole year, which was mainly affected by the single factor of high cost and weak demand support. Although after the “golden nine silver ten” market atmosphere, the price showed all the way up, as of the end of the year, the price of corrugated base paper was still not higher than the price level at the beginning of the year. In 2019, the paper industry performed generally, with limited support for hydrogen peroxide Market. When the price of hydrogen peroxide rose sharply, the paper industry is still in a cold winter.

 

Outlook for the future

 

According to the hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business club, there is less difference between the new capacity and the removal capacity of hydrogen peroxide in 2019. From the perspective of supply, hydrogen peroxide still has room to rise. In 2020, the hydrogen peroxide market will still change with seasonal demand, and it is still expected to rise sharply. This year’s terminal paper industry performance is average. In 2020, the hydrogen peroxide market may continue to rise, but it is hard to reach the height of rise in 2019.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, in 2019, the domestic nickel market showed a trend of small fluctuation followed by big ups and downs. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose sharply in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the nickel price was 89508.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, it was 113466.67 yuan / ton, up 26.77%. Looking at the trend of nickel in the whole year, the increase of nickel was concentrated in July and August. Since the beginning of July, it has soared by 40.02% to the highest price of 141366.67 yuan / ton in the year on September 2. The highest price rose by 57.94% compared with the beginning of the year, reaching a five-year high since September 2014. In 2014, the ban on mining in Indonesia made nickel price increase nearly 50% in half a year.

As shown in the figure above, according to the current nickel comparison chart of the business agency, the current nickel trend in 2019 is basically the same. Except for the large current price difference between the end of October and the end of November, the futures price is very close to the spot price. Close to the end of the year, the main basis is positive, which is a negative for buying hedging.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Nickel prices rose and fell in the first half of the year: from January to March, due to the rebound of financial data in January, monetary policy tends to be loose, Sino US trade negotiation results are good, and with the recovery of demand after the Spring Festival, according to the current price level, the steel mills are relatively profitable. After the festival, the steel mills may start a new round of resumption of production, with the increase of demand superimposed on the riots in Indonesia, nickel prices rise. From March to June, nickel price is in a downward trend. The decline in this stage is mainly due to the gradual introduction of new capacity of Xinhai nickel iron Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province. The market expects that there will be an excess supply of nickel iron. In addition, with the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, China’s nickel port inventory begins to accumulate, and nickel price drops slightly.

 

In the second half of the year, nickel prices rose and fell sharply: at the beginning of July, Indonesia’s earthquake and the restart of Indonesia’s export ban, as well as the impact of the restart of 17 mine sound reviews in the Philippines, coupled with the impact of the shutdown of a nickel mine factory under vale in the early part of the previous period, which caused nickel supply concerns, resulting in a continuous 40% increase in nickel prices. In the beginning of September, Indonesia’s ban on mining really hammered the news of nickel resources kujie in the Philippines, and nickel prices soared again The price of nickel soared nearly 60% to 140000 yuan in two months. After the nickel price reached the highest price on September 2, Indonesia announced a new round of tax relief, as well as the drag of the downstream stainless steel price and the demand for new energy nickel, with the dust from the previous ban on mining in Indonesia falling, which was good for consumption. The nickel price recovered nearly 30% in the fourth quarter. With the implementation date of Indonesia’s ban on mining approaching, nickel prices slightly recovered at the end of the year.

 

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Indonesia’s nickel import accounts for more than 1 / 3 of the total

 

China expects to import about 70.6 million tons of nickel ore in 2019, including 26 million tons of Indonesia nickel ore, accounting for 36.8% of the total, accounting for more than one third of the total. If Indonesia’s nickel mine stops exporting nickel ore on January 1, 2020, it will affect more than one third of the supply of nickel ore.

 

Nickel import and export volume in 2009-2019

 

As shown in the figure above, from 2009 to 2013, the net import of nickel increased year by year, from 2013 to 2018, the net import of copper decreased gradually, and in 2019, it recovered slightly. According to statistics, from January to October 2019, the import volume of nickel is 17591800 tons, and the export volume is 31892 tons. In 2019, the annual import volume is estimated to be 211100 tons, and the annual export volume is 38300 tons.

 

Global and Chinese nickel production 2009-2019

 

As shown in the figure above, in 2018 and 2019, global nickel production rose rapidly, while China’s nickel production changed little. In 2017-19, China’s nickel production was relatively small, mainly relying on imports. From January to November 2019, the global nickel production is 1971700 tons, and from January to November 2019, China’s nickel production is 146800 tons.

 

Apparent consumption of nickel in 2009-2019

 

According to the figure above, the apparent consumption of nickel in China from January to October 2019 is 276100 tons, and the apparent consumption of nickel in 2019 is lower than that in 2018.

 

Stainless steel and lithium battery are two driving forces of nickel price demand

 

Public data shows that in 2019, China’s primary nickel consumption is expected to reach 1.307 million tons, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year. In terms of consumption structure, the consumption of stainless steel primary nickel accounts for 84.7%, electroplating 4.6%, battery 4.6%, and stainless steel still dominates nickel consumption. It is expected that China’s primary nickel consumption will reach 1.365 million tons in 2020, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. From the perspective of global primary nickel consumption, stainless steel dominates nickel consumption and lithium battery nickel consumption grows fastest. It is estimated that by 2025, stainless steel accounts for 67% of nickel consumption and battery industry accounts for 17%; by 2030, stainless steel accounts for 63% and battery accounts for 22%.

 

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Trend of downstream stainless steel

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the trend of downstream stainless steel in 2019 is basically the same as that of nickel in the whole year, but the magnitude of the earthquake is only about 10%. At the beginning of the year, the price of stainless steel was 13525 yuan / ton, with a slight drop of 1.17% to 13366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the year. The lowest price in the year was 13042 yuan / ton on June 19, and the highest price was 14628 yuan / ton on October 15, with an earthquake amplitude of 12.16%. In the first three quarters of this year, the domestic stainless steel output remained high, and the steel factory warehouse and social inventory climbed to a historical high. Therefore, the pressure of removing stainless steel warehouse at the end of this year continues to affect the market. After entering November, the production reduction of domestic mainstream steel plants has been implemented in succession. The price of stainless steel has fallen, which is bad for the demand of primary nickel, which also has a certain drag on the price of nickel. December is the off-season of traditional consumption of stainless steel. After routine maintenance of steel enterprises, stainless steel may enter into the situation of supply and demand.

 

New energy nickel demand hit

 

Since July, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production in China has changed from positive to negative. By 2020, subsidies in the field of new energy vehicles will be fully withdrawn, severely hitting the market’s optimistic expectation of nickel demand in the field of new energy. In October, the output of new energy vehicles in China was 85000, down 34.76% year on year. The negative impact of the decline of new energy subsidies is gradually obvious.

To sum up, the so-called “up Indonesia, down Indonesia” nickel price in 2019, China’s nickel production is very small and mainly depends on imports, while China’s imports of Indonesia’s nickel ore account for more than one third of the total imports of nickel ore in the whole year, Indonesia’s restart of the ban caused a storm to the nickel market, but after the dust settled, Indonesia returned to the fundamentals, the apparent consumption decreased, downstream stainless steel and new Energy demand is weak, and nickel price falls sharply. From January 1, 2020, Indonesia officially started to ban mining. In 2020, Philippine laterite nickel ore export volume may be around 45 million wet tons, up 9.3% from 41.18 million wet tons in 19 years, equivalent to about 345400 metal tons, which can supplement a little, but generally speaking, nickel is in short supply in 2020. In the first half of 2020, due to a large number of stainless steel manufacturers’ stock, the real shortage or in the second half of 2020, the nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the first half of 2020, and the price in the second half of 2020 will be stronger, with the price range of 100000-150000 yuan / ton.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL