With the expansion of production capacity, the new plastic restriction order, and the worldwide public health events, 2020 will be a eventful year. All rubber and plastic industries, including polypropylene, have been hit. In 2020, the domestic polypropylene industry will forge ahead. It can not only stabilize the production and circulation of old strength models, but also rapidly develop melt blown PP to meet the needs of epidemic prevention at home and abroad. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polypropylene market in 2020 is commendable, and the annual growth rate of most brands of products is about 10%, and the overall performance is better than that in 2019. Accurate domestic epidemic prevention policy and stable terminal industry demand are the main advantages of domestic polypropylene growth in this year.

 

Cause analysis

 

In contrast to the red of the year-end answer sheet, domestic polypropylene has a lot of bad luck at the beginning of the year. In addition, the cloud of the epidemic situation was shrouded, and the opening tone was dignified. 2019 is the peak of PP production, and the annual capacity growth rate is the highest since 2010. However, the continued background of production expansion leads to fierce competition in the industry in the beginning of 2020, and a typical contradiction between supply and demand appears. In addition, the downstream demand is weak in the off-season, so the petrochemical plant maintains the strategy of reducing the reservoir. Due to the influence of the epidemic situation, enterprises all over the country have stopped production to varying degrees. As the global demand for crude oil shrinks, the trend of upstream propylene falling gradually highlights. Although the downstream isopropanol is one of the disinfectant raw materials, due to the impact of public health events, the recent price rise has a positive impact on propylene, but other downstream market drops greatly, which is detrimental to the cost of polypropylene. Even if the PP polymerization plant is a batch of plants that returned to work earlier, the absence of downstream aggravates the oversupply of PP. Business profit sales, PP market shocks all the way down.

 

With the development of epidemic prevention demand at home and abroad, the social demand for PP fiber material and melt blown material is rapidly rising. In particular, the gap of meltblown products is large, and the production proportion of copolymer injection plastics and drawing materials is reduced. In the whole year of 2019, the production capacity of PP drawing materials will account for about 33%. In April 2020, a large number of enterprises will switch production, which will cause the production capacity proportion of PP drawing materials to drop to around 22%. Short term production mismatch led to supply shortage, polypropylene market inflection point, the whole variety price was pushed up. It is worth mentioning that in the first and middle of April, a wave of “demon” speculation rose. Due to the huge demand for prevention and control materials at that time, the rapid increase of social demand in the short term caught the polypropylene enterprises and the society by surprise, and the petrochemical enterprises switched to the products in short supply one after another. The production of melt blown polypropylene has been greatly expanded. Even so, the gap of some brands of products is still large. During this period, the blind pursuit of Z30S, s2040 and other fiber materials to replace melt blown materials occurred, resulting in the corresponding model of products increased dramatically. Then the enterprise issued the statement to explain the use of fiber materials, and said that the products were used in special fields without any guarantee and responsibility, calling on customers to use the products correctly. After that, the abnormal speculation atmosphere gradually weakened, and it returned to the general law of supply and demand prices at the end of April.

 

During the period, the upstream propylene was affected by the upward trend of international crude oil price, and the market was positive. However, PP with stable upstream support performed generally in the middle of the year. On the one hand, it is necessary to recall the speculation of fiber PP in the early stage, on the other hand, the market also needs time to pay for the imbalance of production scheduling. At the same time, there was a hidden inventory to be digested, and the price of fiber material then entered the gradually callback market. Part of the spot market performance for “revenge” type of decline. The demand for masks was not so high, and the sentiment of waiting and waiting was heavy, and the actual trading atmosphere was relatively cold. PP market long and short tangled, temporarily lost market guidance. By August, many production lines were put into production. The typhoon led to a decrease in the arrival of PP cargo, diluting the impact of supply expansion on PP prices. At the same time, domestic total inventory decreased and futures rose, which led to the market at that time. The supply and demand in the market was relatively balanced, but the downstream price reduction intention was obvious at that time.

 

After two months of stable market in September and October, petrochemicals’ inventory increased rapidly in early November. Driven by the rise of futures, the market trading atmosphere turned warm in time, and the danger of accumulated stocks was successfully solved. At that time, the stock price of PP dropped to the low point in the middle of the year. At the same time, it also increases the downstream cost pressure represented by plastic knitting enterprises, reduces the profit space, and generally intensifies the resistance. In December, the downstream delivery of goods has shrunk, and some plastic knitting enterprises have plans to reduce production and reduce burden. There is resistance to the seller’s shipment, and the overall price is weak. Combined with the start-up of previously shut-down units, the late new units were actually put into operation. At present, the domestic polypropylene operating rate is high, and the supply is significantly increased, which is detrimental to the spot market.

 

Melt blown polypropylene

Melt blown PP: when it comes to this year’s melt blown polypropylene, everyone will never forget the urgent demand for it from epidemic prevention work at home and abroad in the first half of this year. At the same time, it is also the most important reason to push up the price of melt blown PP. At that time, the expansion of production had not yet started, and melt blown PP even had a brief chaos. Market prices skyrocketed, and one of the goods is difficult to find, orders placed for several months. The old melt blown PP enterprises have expanded their production rapidly, and many private enterprises have also transferred into production. The national team led the organization, and the shortage of products was gradually solved. In May, although the news of PP melt blown material market was complicated, the market had been mixed with many empty spaces and was under control on the whole. Even so, the average price of melt blown polypropylene of 1500 grade was still as high as 24000.00 yuan / ton. During this period, the rectification action of relevant domestic departments on melt blown fabric industry eliminated many unqualified products and low-quality production capacity. Some small and medium-sized enterprises invested in cross industry in the early stage left due to technical problems, resulting in weak demand in the downstream to a certain extent, which was detrimental to melt blown PP price. On the other hand, the state has lowered the access standard of masks and announced that it will allow the use of protective masks in accordance with the Chinese standard GB 2626 (protection level kn95), which is conducive to the export of meltblown fabrics.

 

Since then, the supply of melt blown PP gradually met the demand, and Sinopec’s enterprises successively sold meltblown materials and cloth, which had an impact on the market. The domestic market is oversupply, and the demand for epidemic prevention products is declining. The competition among the manufacturers of epidemic prevention products is strong. The profits of the main downstream mask factories in China are seriously diluted. By the fourth quarter of this year, the price of melt blown PP has dropped to 10000 yuan. As of December 17, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was 10900 yuan / ton. At present, the trend of the second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, and many countries have announced the re closure of the city, and the non-woven fabrics in the application of medical protection are sought after again. However, from the point of view that the price of imported materials is also stable and weak, it is difficult for the price of melt blown materials to improve, and the overall trend may still be inclined to adjust.

 

Year end overview

 

PP business agency analysts believe: the positive market of polypropylene in 2020 will benefit from the stability of the domestic market environment. This year’s PP production capacity still shows the trend of expansion. Under the increasingly fierce competition of domestic polymerization plants, PP price can still have a certain increase, which is inseparable from the development of downstream. At the same time, the support of upstream propylene to PP cost is relatively strong in the whole year. The business club believes that the fundamentals of PP will be stable in 2020 and are ready to accept the market challenge in 2021.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Trend analysis

 

On the 16th, the spot copper price was 57918.33 yuan / ton, 0.8% higher than the previous day, 18.12% higher than the beginning of the year, and 18.83% higher than the same period last year. Copper remained high volatility in LME3 today, closing at US $7797, up 0.19%. The main trend of Shanghai copper showed an upward trend, with the highest closing at 58190 yuan, and the last trading was up at 57850 yuan, up 0.47%. The main international copper contracts remained high and volatile, and closed at 51660 yuan, up 0.62%.

 

According to the data, China’s factory output rose at the fastest rate in 20 months in November, thanks to the recovery of consumer spending and the gradual easing of restrictions related to the new epidemic in major trading partners. China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly half of the world’s 24 million tons of copper consumption. At present, China’s fixed asset investment continued to improve in November, and domestic inventory fell to a new low in recent years. At present, the global copper Inventory (including domestic bonded warehouse) is only 792000 tons, which is at the low level in nearly five years. The low inventory supports the copper price to strengthen. Copper prices are expected to be strong in the short term.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of steam coal is mainly stable this week. On December 7, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 662.75 yuan / ton, and on December 11, the average price of steam coal was maintained at about 691.25 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 24.27%. On December 13, the commodity index of steam coal was 83.28, unchanged with yesterday, 19.15% lower than the highest point of 103.01 (2011-11-15) and 86.31% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

In terms of production areas, supply and demand of main production areas are still tight, and coal mine mouth operating rate has reached a relatively high point under the support of supply policy. Affected by the recent safety accidents, environmental protection and other multiple factors, the signal of safety production at the end of the year was enhanced, and the coal mining volume was affected to a certain extent. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and other places have issued environmental protection and production restriction notices, and the supply has dropped sharply.

 

In terms of downstream power plants, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 690-710 yuan / ton. The temperature in coastal areas dropped, and the demand for heating increased seasonally. Under the condition of low temperature and rising daily consumption, the downstream terminal transportation demand is also strong. The power plant replenishment is active, and the demand for coastal terminal procurement has been released. The inventory of Beigang is low, and the problem of shortage of goods still exists. In view of the soaring spot prices and the enhanced expectation of macro-control, the coastal power plants are mainly on the wait-and-see situation, and the procurement is relatively rational. In addition, the rapid recovery of the economy makes the coal demand of coal consuming enterprises increase. In the past two months, the purchase of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries has continued, driving a large increase in coal demand.

 

Import and price: coal imports continued to decline. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in November, China imported 11.671 million tons of coal, down 9.11 million tons, or 43.84 percent, compared with 20.781 million tons in the same period last year, and 2.055 million tons, or 14.97 percent, compared with 13.726 million tons in October. The price of anthracite coal rose by 29.0% to RMB 763.0 per ton on February, and the price of anthracite coal decreased by 11.0% to RMB 923.0 per ton on February.

 

Business analysts believe that steam coal still has upward momentum: at present, the main coal producing areas are still tense. Near the end of the year, environmental protection policies are more stringent, and some coal dealers report that there will still be coal such as cars. In the second downstream power plant, affected by the extremely cold weather of La Nina this winter, the temperature in the north and northeast areas is rapidly decreasing, which drives the increase of coal demand. In addition, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir maintain a low level, hydropower output decreases, and thermal power generation continues to rise. 3. The import of coal decreased. In November this year, China imported 11.671 million tons of coal, down 9.11 million tons, or 43.84 percent, compared with 20.781 million tons in the same period last year. Because of the stoppage of loading and unloading of Australian coal, the quota of coal imported by some users was close to zero. In addition, due to “public events”, the management of ports was strengthened. 4. Affected by the domestic economic recovery, the purchase of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries continued to increase, driving a large increase in coal demand. 5. Affected by domestic policies, in order to support the domestic economy, the state has been more strict in the control of imported coal. See the downstream market demand specifically.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Price trend

 

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on October 1 was 1866.67 yuan / ton, and that on December 14 was 2066.67 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the overall price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 13.39%, and the market continued to rise.

 

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on October 1 was 2306.67 yuan / ton, and on December 14, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 2440 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 5.78%, and the market continued to rise.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The market of monoammonium phosphate rose sharply in the fourth quarter. Since the October double festival holiday, the price of monoammonium phosphate has generally risen, and some enterprises have closed their offer. The upward driving force in this quarter is mainly due to the rise of raw material prices, the planned maintenance of some enterprises, the tightening of supply, and the good demand for downstream compound fertilizer, which has promoted the market of No.1 phosphoric acid and the rising trading focus. The price of raw material phosphate rock rose in October, and the cost support was good. The downstream compound fertilizer also increased slightly. Monoammonium phosphate supply less, the market trend is more optimistic, the month’s increase was 3.57%. In November, the growth of monoammonium phosphate continued, and the growth slowed down in the second half of the month, showing a high consolidation, with an increase of 5.17% in the month. In December, the trend is still strong, manufacturers’ inventory is not under pressure, and prices continue to rise, but the enthusiasm of downstream trading turns weak, maintaining just in demand purchasing, and wait-and-see. Up to now, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 2050 – 2100 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2150-2180 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 2000-2150 yuan / ton, and the price is stable temporarily.

 

In the fourth quarter, the market of diammonium phosphate rose, and the export improved. At the same time, some enterprises planned to overhaul, the supply was tightened, and the manufacturers’ inventory was not under pressure. In addition, winter storage was started, downstream fertilizer preparation increased, and the supply and demand side was favorable. In October, domestic and foreign demand for diammonium phosphate was stable, and the price remained firm, with an increase of 2.17% in November. In November, the supply of goods was still tight, queuing for delivery, and the offer was firm, up 2.12% in the month. In December, the trend rose slightly, but in the near future, the export volume has declined, and traders are cautious to wait and see. The demand for downstream fertilizer is stable, and DAP is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Up to now, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2400-2470 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2750-2800 yuan / ton. 64% DAP in Gansu Province was quoted 2500 yuan / T. The price of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2780-2800 yuan / ton, and the price is high.

 

In the first ten days of December, China’s domestic phosphate ore market was stable and slightly upward. At the beginning of the month, the market was mainly in operation. Until July 7, some low-priced phosphate ores in Guizhou Province made a small increase in the ex factory price of 30% grade phosphate ore, with an increase range of 10-20 yuan / ton. The price concentration was close to the high level, and the difference between high and low prices was reduced. Most of the rest of the region phosphate ore market continued to operate stably. The year 2020 is coming to an end. The overall market situation of domestic phosphate ore is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the mine operation is low. The phosphorus ore Data Engineer of the business society predicts that by the end of 2020, China’s domestic phosphate ore market will be stable and the overall operation will be dominated.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the fourth quarter ammonium phosphate Market by tight supply, cost support and other favorable factors, the price rose, the focus of trading moved up. At present, the fatigue psychology of the downstream is revealed, the ability to receive goods is limited, and monoammonium phosphate pursues more orders. Under the favorable support, the market is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term, with large and small movements. At present, DAP is mainly for export orders, and the supply of goods is tight. The demand for downstream fertilizer is stable and the fundamental changes are not big. It is expected that the market will be strong in the short term and the trend will be strong.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose this week and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, the weekly low price was 8095 yuan / ton; at the weekend, it was 8103 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.09%; on Tuesday and Wednesday, the weekly high price was 8191 yuan / ton, with a weekly amplitude of 1.18%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, increasing by more than 12%. From the end of the month to the beginning of the month, the price remained stable again. On the 4th, it began to rise in an all-round way. From the 3rd to the 8th, the price rose by about 450 yuan / ton, up 5.90%. On the 9th, the price remained stable. On the 10th, some enterprises made up some supplementary increases, and some enterprises’ prices fell slightly. Today’s prices fell comprehensively, falling by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is between 8000-8200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 8000-8050 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock pressure is small, the shipment situation is general.

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

On December 10, crude oil prices rose significantly, which may have a positive impact on propylene.

 

This week, the spot price of PP remained stable, and the futures market was more general, which had a limited impact on propylene.

 

Acrylic acid market rose steadily this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 2.81%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

 

This week, the propylene oxide market remained stable, the impact on propylene is small.

 

Epichlorohydrin had a slight decline at the weekend, with a weekly decline of 1.62%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

 

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol declined steadily, with a weekly decline of 2.76%, which had a certain suppression effect on propylene.

 

Octanol market this week a small shock, the weekly decline of 0.17%, the weekly amplitude of 0.33%, the impact on propylene is limited.

 

This week, the isopropanol market fell back to its original position after rising, with no rise or fall. The weekly amplitude was 1.75%, which also had a limited impact on propylene.

 

This week, East China phenol fell sharply over the weekend, with a weekly decline of 3.47%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

 

This week, East China acetone rose and then fell back, with a weekly increase of 2.94% and a weekly amplitude of 5.88%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: on the whole, the existing propylene manufacturers have not much inventory, the shipment is general, and the crude oil price has increased, but the downstream market is generally, and it has started to be cold and empty. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may continue to decline in the near future.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL