According to the price monitoring of the business club, in July, the polyester filament market remained volatile and fell. As of July 27, various products fell to varying degrees, including polyester FDY and polyester POY, which fell by 7.16% and 6.96% respectively, and polyester DTY fell by 4.48%.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market in July unit: yuan / ton

 

Products, 2022-07-01, 2022-07-27, rise and fall, year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester POY (150d/48f), 8616, 8016, -6.96%, 2.12%

Polyester FDY (150d/96f), 9221, 8561, -7.16%, 6.02%

Polyester DTY (150d/48f low elasticity), 9735, 9298, -4.48%, -2.19%

There was a reversal at the end of the month. With the red of raw materials, the market ushered in a bottoming rebound. Polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-200 yuan / ton. However, the inventory is still at a historically high level. According to statistics, the average total inventory of polyester filament is 35.5 days, an increase of 15.4 days compared with the same period last year.

 

In July, the crude oil market was mainly affected by the strength of the US dollar, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increased the risk of economic recession; Superimposed on the repeated outbreaks in Asia, the possible blockade measures suppress demand, and the oil grid shocks weaken. As of July 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $94.98 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $99.46 / barrel.

 

In terms of PTA, Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton plant was overhauled on July 2, fuhaichuang 4.5 million ton plant was shut down in the evening of July 11, Ningbo Yisheng 2million ton plant is currently in shutdown state, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 ton plant load is 90%, and the restart time is to be determined. Baihong’s 2.5 million ton unit reduced its load to 80% and is expected to recover in one week. PTA operating rate remained low near 73%. In terms of price, the domestic PTA market fell first and then slightly recovered in July. As of July 27, the average market price was 6062 yuan / ton, down 8.27% from the beginning of the month and up 12.59% year-on-year.

 

At present, the industry is in the off-season, and the high-temperature power consumption in the south is at a peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power rationing notices, intensifying the pressure on the demand side. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is low, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%. However, stimulated by the low price, there was a strong atmosphere of bottom hunting in terminal textile enterprises in late October, and the raw materials were concentrated until the end of the month. The order atmosphere improved slightly, but the overall range was not large.

 

Business analysts believe that on the raw material side, the wait-and-see sentiment in the oil market intensifies as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The spot of PTA supply side is still tight, and some PTA devices still have maintenance plans. Affected by the off-season, the demand side is expected to further reduce production. Without substantial improvement in demand, the price of polyester filament is still dominated by cost, and the rebound is unsustainable. It is expected that the price will continue to fall under pressure in August.

http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 7637.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 7275.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.75%. The current price increased by 28.08% year-on-year.

 

http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com

potassium nitrate

 

In July, the domestic potassium nitrate Market showed an upward trend. From the above figure, we can see that the potassium nitrate Market has continued to rise since 2022, but the market began to fall this month. The main reason is that the supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the price continues to fall. The supply of border trade goods has arrived one after another, and the supply of goods in the market is sufficient. The downstream demand is low, the market transaction is light, and the potassium nitrate Market is low. According to the statistics of business agency, the recent quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers is 7000-7500 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

 

The domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell in July. The source of border trade goods has arrived in Hong Kong one after another, and the market supply is sufficient. At present, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi potassium chloride distribution quotation is 5300 yuan / ton. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5250 yuan / ton. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton.

 

The price of potash fertilizer in the international market continues to decline, and the cost support is general. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly fall in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of petroleum asphalt manufacturers in Shandong Province was 4262 yuan / ton on July 25, up 0.38% from the previous trading day and 27.35% year-on-year. On July 25, the closing price of 2209, the main contract of asphalt futures, was 4006 yuan / ton, up 2.59%.

 

In terms of spot goods, the quotations of some major manufacturers rose, and the overall shipment was supported. With the weather improving, the terminal demand increased.

 

The international crude oil price is weak and volatile, the asphalt high price transaction is limited, and the domestic asphalt market is mainly sorted out in the short term.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA market maintained a downward trend this week (July 18-22). As of July 22, the average price of domestic PTA market was 5810 yuan / ton, down 2.26% from the beginning of the week and up 8.36% year-on-year.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

With the increase of two sets of 4.2 million ton PTA units in Yisheng Ningbo and two sets of 6.6 million ton PTA units in Yisheng new material to 90% of the load. Up to now, the operating load of PTA industry is more than 73%. The main suppliers of PTA sell spot goods, and the circulation volume has increased.

 

U.S. gasoline inventories increased. In addition, at the macro level, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, raising concerns about falling demand. Crude oil volatility weakened. As of July 21, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $96.35 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of lunt crude oil futures was $103.86 / barrel.

 

Large factories plan to increase production reduction, and polyester load further drops to 76%. Superimposed on the impact of summer high temperature and sporadic epidemic, and the current off-season characteristics are obvious, terminal construction remains low, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms fall to less than 50%, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

 

Business analysts believe that the oil price fluctuated and fell, PTA costs continued to move down, the demand side performance was weak, and there is still room for polyester construction to be reduced. At the same time, PTA spot liquidity increased, and PTA prices are expected to enter a downward trend.

http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com

Summary of precious metal spot price trend

 

PVA 2699

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 21 was 4096.67 yuan / kg, down 6.72% from the average price of 4391.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 14.12%.

 

On July 21, the spot market price of gold was 371.95 yuan / g, a daily decrease of 0.18%, which was 4.71% lower than the early average price of 390.34 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.11%.

 

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

 

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

 

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

 

Policy Overview

 

1. Domestic news

 

The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3 billion yuan on the 21st, with the bid winning interest rate of 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period. Due to the maturity of RMB 3billion reverse repurchase today, zero delivery and zero withdrawal were achieved on that day.

 

The latest loan market quotation rate (LPR) published by the National Interbank Funding Center authorized by the central bank remains unchanged for both 1-year and 5-year maturities.

 

2. International news

 

The Bank of Japan’s core inflation expectation for fiscal 2022 was 2.3% (previously 1.9%). The core inflation expectation in fy2024 was 1.3% (previously 1.1%); The Bank of Japan lowered its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2022. GDP growth in fy2022 is expected to be 2.4% (previously 2.9%). GDP growth in fy2023 is expected to be 2.0% (previously 1.9%). GDP growth in fy2024 is expected to be 1.3% (previously 1.1%).

 

The chairman of RBA Lowe said that the inflation data in June rose further and is expected to rise again. The Committee expects that further interest rate hikes will be required in the coming months. The era of ultra-low interest rates in Australia has passed. He estimated that the neutral nominal interest rate is at least 2.5%. The Committee will continue to make decisions based on future data. But if the inflation rate is close to 6% or 7%, it will have to raise interest rates.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

The annual rate of CPI in the UK recorded 9.4% in June, the highest since the data record was set in 1989; The monthly rate of UK retail price index in June was 0.9%, slightly higher than market expectations; The monthly PPI rate in Germany in June was 0.6%, far lower than expected; The current account of the euro zone decreased by € 4.489 billion after the quarter adjustment in May, while it decreased by € 5.8 billion in April.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

In terms of international policy, the expectation that some central banks in the world will significantly raise interest rates and the monetary policy of major central banks as a whole will be tightened is intensifying. In particular, the Federal Reserve will control inflation by raising interest rates, and the price of interest-free asset precious metals is under pressure. Precious metal prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.

http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com