According to the price monitoring of the business club, in July, the polyester filament market remained volatile and fell. As of July 27, various products fell to varying degrees, including polyester FDY and polyester POY, which fell by 7.16% and 6.96% respectively, and polyester DTY fell by 4.48%.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market in July unit: yuan / ton
Products, 2022-07-01, 2022-07-27, rise and fall, year-on-year rise and fall
Polyester POY (150d/48f), 8616, 8016, -6.96%, 2.12%
Polyester FDY (150d/96f), 9221, 8561, -7.16%, 6.02%
Polyester DTY (150d/48f low elasticity), 9735, 9298, -4.48%, -2.19%
There was a reversal at the end of the month. With the red of raw materials, the market ushered in a bottoming rebound. Polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-200 yuan / ton. However, the inventory is still at a historically high level. According to statistics, the average total inventory of polyester filament is 35.5 days, an increase of 15.4 days compared with the same period last year.
In July, the crude oil market was mainly affected by the strength of the US dollar, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increased the risk of economic recession; Superimposed on the repeated outbreaks in Asia, the possible blockade measures suppress demand, and the oil grid shocks weaken. As of July 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $94.98 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $99.46 / barrel.
In terms of PTA, Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton plant was overhauled on July 2, fuhaichuang 4.5 million ton plant was shut down in the evening of July 11, Ningbo Yisheng 2million ton plant is currently in shutdown state, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 ton plant load is 90%, and the restart time is to be determined. Baihong’s 2.5 million ton unit reduced its load to 80% and is expected to recover in one week. PTA operating rate remained low near 73%. In terms of price, the domestic PTA market fell first and then slightly recovered in July. As of July 27, the average market price was 6062 yuan / ton, down 8.27% from the beginning of the month and up 12.59% year-on-year.
At present, the industry is in the off-season, and the high-temperature power consumption in the south is at a peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power rationing notices, intensifying the pressure on the demand side. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is low, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%. However, stimulated by the low price, there was a strong atmosphere of bottom hunting in terminal textile enterprises in late October, and the raw materials were concentrated until the end of the month. The order atmosphere improved slightly, but the overall range was not large.
Business analysts believe that on the raw material side, the wait-and-see sentiment in the oil market intensifies as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The spot of PTA supply side is still tight, and some PTA devices still have maintenance plans. Affected by the off-season, the demand side is expected to further reduce production. Without substantial improvement in demand, the price of polyester filament is still dominated by cost, and the rebound is unsustainable. It is expected that the price will continue to fall under pressure in August.
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