1、 Price trend

According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on May 28 was 2533.33 yuan / ton, down 5% from last Thursday (21), 13.14% from the beginning of May and 32.2% from the same period last year. On May 27, the LNG commodity index was 62.85, down 0.66 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 69.92% from 208.96, the highest on December 25, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

According to the business data monitoring, as of 28, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas is 2533.33 yuan / ton, the price in Inner Mongolia is around 2500 yuan / ton, the price in Shaanxi is around 2600 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan is around 2800 yuan / ton, the price in Shanxi is around 2700 yuan / ton, the price in Xinjiang is around 2200-3000 yuan / ton, and the liquid price in all regions has not declined to a certain extent The trend has been slowed down and tends to be stable. In some areas, the price of LNG market is still weak as a whole, due to the effect of price reduction and storage arrangement in the early stage is acceptable.

In recent days, the decline of domestic LNG has not stopped, falling continuously. On the 21st and 22nd of the NPC and CPPCC in Beijing, factories in some regions limited production and stopped production, which led to the decline of industrial gas consumption. At the same time, the number of vehicles used for goods decreased, and the sales volume of gas stations also declined. The price continued to decline. With the end of the NPC and CPPCC, the demand increased to a certain extent. However, in the off-season of consumption, the terminal demand was difficult to increase, and other regions were not optimistic, and the price was under pressure. Due to the impact of low price, the sales pressure of the liquid plant is increasing. In the off-season demand, the inventory of the manufacturer is on the high side, and the continuous price reduction stimulates the shipment. At the same time, the step-by-step reduction of raw gas clarification on May 20 gives the liquid plant a certain space for price reduction. However, with the continuous decline for several days, the liquid plant has no profit to speak of. Considering the cost, the decline is slower than before, and the stock in some regions is small after the decline Up, eventually difficult to drive the market. At present, the start-up load of some liquid plants has been reduced to reduce the inventory pressure, and some liquid plants have maintenance plans. However, the contradiction between market supply and demand still exists. In addition, recently, imported LNG ships are intensively landed, the price has been continuously reduced, the transportation radius has been continuously expanded, the competition with domestic LNG is fierce, the end-users have more price comparison to get the goods, the domestic liquid plants have a general shipping situation, and the market delivery and investment atmosphere is weak. In the absence of obvious improvement in the demand side, the domestic LNG market is in a difficult situation, and in the short term, the pressure on the liquid price is low or normal.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on May 27, 2020, among which WTI crude oil (3.31%), Brent crude oil (1.72%) and gasoline (1.42%) are the top three commodities. There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are dimethyl ether (- 2.37%) and liquefied natural gas (- 1.04%). The average price of this day is 0.47%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business club, the current consumption is in the off-season, with sufficient gas source, no obvious improvement in market demand, weak terminal receiving, and difficult to achieve a short-term balance between supply and demand. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of epichlorohydrin was mainly stable on May 27, with some enterprises adjusting their prices. On May 27, the average price quoted by domestic epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10900 yuan / ton, down 0.91% compared with yesterday, and up 10.10% compared with May 6. In this stage (5.6-5.27), the overall market price of epichlorohydrin showed a fluctuating upward trend. Recently, the price of propylene raw material has declined, and the cost support has weakened. However, the spot supply of epichlorohydrin is in short supply, and the downstream just needs replenishment. The mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market on May 27 is about 10500-11000 yuan / ton.

The epichlorohydrin commodity index on May 26 was 77.68, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.90% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.81% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On May 26, the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continued to decline. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends Until 22, the upward trend remained unchanged. The daily upward trend was 50-100 yuan / ton. On 22, the price finally began to stabilize. On the weekend, the price of propylene fell slightly. On 25, the price of propylene fell again by 50-150 yuan / ton. On 26, the price still fell by about 100 yuan / ton. The market turnover was between 6670-6950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 6700 yuan / ton. 26 downstream epoxy resin high-level finishing operation, downstream just need replenishment.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are eight kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on May 26, 2020, among which the top three commodities are ox (5.00%), bisphenol A (3.66%) and R22 (2.30%). There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are R134a (- 7.38%), lithium iron phosphate (- 2.63%), lithium carbonate (- 1.46%). The average price of this day was – 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, it is expected that the market of epichlorohydrin will be dominated by high-level consolidation and operation in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information guidance of all aspects of the market.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of propylene oxide rose steadily on May 26. The price of raw propylene has declined, but at present, the inventory of each factory is at a low level, the downstream just needs replenishment, and the market exchange and investment atmosphere is fair. The market quotation of propylene oxide is mainly to maintain stable operation, and some factories have raised their offer. As of the 26th, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 9233.33 yuan / ton, up 0.36% compared with yesterday and 10.80% compared with May 6.

On May 26, the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continued to decline. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends Until 22, the upward trend remained unchanged. The daily upward trend was 50-100 yuan / ton. On 22, the price finally began to stabilize. The weekend price slightly declined. On 25, the price of propylene fell again by 50-150 yuan / ton. Today, the price still fell by about 100 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 6670-6950 yuan / ton, and the main flow price is about 6700 yuan / ton. On May 26, the price of downstream polyether, driven by the rise of raw material propylene oxide, rose narrowly in some enterprises.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on May 25, 2020, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are ethylene (7.25%), epoxy ethane (4.48%) and chloroform (2.17%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were R22 (- 6.45%), R134a (- 4.69%), and hydrogen peroxide (- 3.32%). The average price of this day was – 0.09%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, the price of raw material propylene has been revised back, but the propylene oxide is still supported by the low inventory of the factory, the trading atmosphere is still favorable, and the market price is rising steadily. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of propylene oxide will be stable and wait-and-see. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the change of the price of raw material and the transaction situation in the mainstream market.

1、 Price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example. According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the price of titanium dioxide is stable this week, with an average price of 14166.67 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since May, affected by the foreign epidemic situation, foreign trade has contracted, some production enterprises have limited production, domestic titanium dioxide enterprises have a large shipping pressure, market prices are weak, and the market is light. This week, the price of titanium dioxide is mainly stable. At present, the factory price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 13500-14500 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide is 11500-13000 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide is 16500-20000 yuan / ton. In terms of the current international situation, titanium dioxide market as a whole is weak.

Industry chain: this week, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region was lowered. Due to the low terminal demand, the pressure on the general delivery of miners is large, and the prices of some medium and concentrate producers are reduced. The price of 38 medium titanium ore without tax is 780-840 yuan / ton, that of 46 and 10 titanium ore without tax is 1220-1450 yuan / ton, and that of 47 and 20 titanium ore is 1450-1500 yuan / ton. According to analysts of titanium concentrate of business association, the overall terminal demand is not optimistic, the overall titanium white is weak, and the price of titanium concentrate is under pressure. In the short term, the real price of titanium concentrate will be weak and stable.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analyst of business association thinks: affected by the epidemic situation, the demand side foreign trade contracted, and the domestic trade channel and terminal wait-and-see mood were obvious. In the short term, the weak price is mainly sorted out, and the actual transaction price is a single negotiation.

In recent years, the price of dysprosium and terbium Series in the domestic rare earth market has continued to rise. In recent years, the downstream inquiry has increased, and the price of heavy rare earth in the domestic market has increased significantly. However, the overall order transaction situation in the light rare earth market has declined, resulting in the price drop in the light rare earth market. According to the rare earth sector index of business association, on May 22, the rare earth index was 333 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 66.70% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), and up 22.88% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

On May 22, the price of dysprosium oxide in rare earth increased by 50000 yuan / ton to 1.94 million yuan / ton in China; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 50000 yuan / ton to 1.9 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal increased by 50000 yuan / ton to 2.245 million yuan / ton, and the price of terbium oxide and metal terbium increased by 50000 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of heavy rare earth kept rising.

Rare earth storage and collection plan is a good support for heavy rare earth market. In the domestic rare earth storage and collection plan, heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual production, which is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth and the price. Considering that the current closure of Myanmar still has a tight impact on the domestic import and supply of heavy rare earth, once the storage and collection plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a great impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium Tightening and rising prices have a greater impact. In addition, with the increase of on-site inquiry in the near future, the price of heavy rare earth has increased, the contradiction between supply and demand is slightly acute, and the price of domestic heavy rare earth market continues to rise.

In the first ten days of May, the market inquiry of light rare earth increased, the price increased, and the downstream manufacturers’ mentality of buying up but not buying down increased the enthusiasm of stock preparation, the inventory of downstream manufacturers increased, and the inquiry decreased in the near future. The price demand of domestic light rare earth market showed signs of falling due to the high price. However, due to its relatively short distance from the low point, the possibility of a sharp fall in the near future is limited, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium Series in the near future is small Lower.

Policy: the Ministry of information issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth enterprises, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise application, forming the collection of relevant supporting policies for rare earth industry resumption. The policy is favorable to support the development of rare earth industry, while the relationship between China and the United States is somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of rare earth market is normal. However, due to the different market demand of light and heavy rare earth, the light and heavy rare earth present “ice and fire”.

In the near future, the domestic heavy rare earth market is well supported. In addition, once the rare earth collection and storage is implemented, it will bring greater benefits to the heavy rare earth market. However, the light rare earth market demand is not good, but the price is near the cost line, so there is little room for decline. Business analysts expect that the heavy rare earth market price will still rise in the later period, but the light rare earth market price may maintain a low volatility trend.