According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the average sales price of PET is 6117 yuan/ton. The drag of raw material prices and the low downstream purchasing willingness have led to a weak downward trend in prices this week.

In terms of cost: The international crude oil market is affected by geopolitical easing, OPEC+production increases, US tariff policies that suppress demand, coupled with Iraq’s resumption of crude oil exports. International oil prices have fallen below the key support level of $70 per barrel, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. Although PTA processing fees have briefly rebounded to a reasonable range of 325 yuan/ton due to concentrated maintenance, the expected increase in new production capacity and import recovery have suppressed long-term profit margins; The inventory of ethylene glycol at the port has risen to a high of 584400 tons, and the loose supply and demand pattern is difficult to change.

In terms of supply and demand: The polyester bottle chip industry is at the end of its capacity expansion cycle, with plans to add 2.15 million tons of new production capacity by 2025. Coupled with the current high inventory level during the same period, market concerns about oversupply have intensified. Despite weak demand, the operating rates of major production enterprises remain high, leading to a continuous increase in supply and exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. The textile and clothing industry has entered the traditional peak season of “golden three and silver four”, but the actual order release is limited. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises has dropped to 8.26 days, while the finished product inventory has increased to 23.64 days, indicating cautious terminal replenishment. The release of new production capacity and high inventory have suppressed price rebound, but there is no significant improvement signal on the demand side.

In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that crude oil and raw material prices lack upward driving force, and the release of new production capacity and high inventory suppress price rebound. There is no obvious improvement signal on the demand side, and the price of polyester bottle chips may continue to fluctuate weakly. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment and demand situation, as well as the cost support under the traction of crude oil.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of styrene fell on the 13th. Overall, the recent decline in international oil prices, downstream production restrictions and price protection measures for pure benzene, poor terminal demand, coupled with the accumulation of inventory in major ports in East China and weak market sentiment, have accelerated the decline and dragged down the price of styrene. There is little change in the supply side of styrene, and downstream 3S remains stable. Downstream enters the market on dips, and it is expected to consolidate and operate after a short-term market downturn.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been continuously declining recently. As of March 11th, the domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 76000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.55% from 7880 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 31.78% from 111400 yuan/ton in the same period last year; Domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate is priced at 73900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 27.83% from 102400 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

Supply side: Increased domestic production coupled with rising imports

Domestically speaking, Ningde Times’ Jiangxi lithium mica mine resumed production in February, leading to a 25% increase in domestic production volume compared to the previous month in March.

In terms of imports, although Chile sent 12000 tons of lithium carbonate to China in February, there was a slight decrease compared to the previous month. But in addition to lithium carbonate, Chile sent 10300 tons of lithium sulfate to China in February, an increase of 391% compared to the previous month. In addition, Ganfeng Lithium’s 20000 ton lithium chloride production capacity in the first phase of the Mariana Lithium Salt Lake project in Argentina was officially put into operation in February, which will also drive China’s lithium carbonate imports.

Demand side: ternary materials weaken, lithium iron phosphate may become a major trend

From the perspective of material factories, due to the increasing concentration of the industry, top material factories are approaching full production or even seeking outsourcing processing, while small material factories have significantly reduced orders and experienced production stoppages.

From the perspective of lithium iron phosphate, the production capacity of power batteries reached 96GWh in March, an increase of 18% compared to the previous month. Among them, lithium iron phosphate power batteries performed particularly well, with a production capacity of 65GWh, an increase of 22% compared to the previous month, accounting for about 69%.

The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that, under the premise that the large pattern of lithium carbonate surplus has not been reversed, the weak supply and demand will further suppress prices. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to weaken in the short term, and specific market information and changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

The latest price on March 11th is 15300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis points: On March 11th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price rose. Upstream sulfuric acid prices have increased, titanium concentrate is consolidating at a high level, factory costs are under pressure, and titanium dioxide market quotations are approaching high-end prices. At present, downstream demand is average, with rigid procurement being the main focus, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for new order prices.

Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain strong and upward in the short term, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In early March, the domestic ABS market showed weak consolidation, with most spot prices of various grades experiencing a narrow decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11162.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.54% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Since early March, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has been narrowly increased, and the load has fluctuated by around 2% to 74% in the first ten days. The average weekly production has increased to over 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is 180000 tons, slightly lower than the end of February, but the overall supply of goods remains abundant. The improvement of orders in petrochemical plants is limited, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery, resulting in a high incidence of discounted orders. Overall, the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices within ten days is average.

Cost factor: In early March, the upstream three materials of ABS showed weak trends, which did not provide good support for the cost side of ABS. The price of acrylonitrile has fallen to touch the theoretical production cost line, and the market downturn has slowed down recently. The high load of 89% in the industry has put pressure on the supply side, and the company’s profit situation is showing losses. Combined with the follow-up of new production capacity in the future, the rebound of acrylonitrile market still lacks momentum.

The butadiene market continued to fluctuate and show a weak trend within the next ten days. The overall market supply is relatively loose, and holders are unable to raise prices. The downstream synthetic rubber market trend is still weak, and under the weak supply-demand pattern, the butadiene market continued to delay its weak operation trend this week.

Styrene showed a significant decline in early March. The international oil prices in the remote upstream have fallen, and the support on the raw material side is poor. On the supply side, it is constrained by high port inventory, while downstream demand is hindered by increased production resistance. Currently, styrene continues to decline due to cost and demand constraints, and it is expected to consolidate and operate after a short-term market downturn.

On the demand side: On the terminal side, we will continue the previous flat pattern, and after the downstream buying stagnation in early March. The load increase of the terminal factory in the inquiry is not significant, and the purchasing logic tends to be weak in demand and bottom fishing. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing is sluggish, and the flow of goods is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell in early March. The three upstream materials all fell, providing poor comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly increased, and inventory has been slightly digested but still remains at a high level. The demand side expansion is still slow, and downstream enterprises have insufficient consumption. Business analysts believe that the ABS market has strong supply and weak demand, and is under pressure from a decrease in cost value. In the short term, the market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation.