1、 Market Overview
In the past week (August 5-11), the spot price of PA6 remained stable at 12500 yuan/ton, and the market trend remained flat and organized; As of August 11th, spot prices have risen, with a daily increase of 1.60%, and the quoted price has risen to 12700 yuan/ton. From the perspective of cyclical price, the short-term price was at a low level in the early stage. With the price increase, the positions of the 10-60 day cycle all reached a high range, and the annual cycle price was at a medium high level; At the moving average level, the short-term moving average has crossed the medium – to long-term moving average upwards, and the market has started a round of upward trend. Spot prices have shown signs of short-term super rise.
2、 Cost analysis
The weekly settlement price of upstream raw material caprolactam has recently stopped falling and stabilized, and factory quotations have remained firm, providing strong bottom support for slicing costs. Recently, the crude oil market has fluctuated and rebounded, driving the sentiment of the chemical fiber and chemical industry sector to rebound; Part of the equipment in the caprolactam industry is undergoing maintenance, and the supply of raw materials in stock is tightening. The raw material prices are firm, and the downward space for PA6 production costs is limited. Combined with the recent increase in factory prices for slicing, favorable raw material costs have begun to spread downstream for nylon slicing, laying the foundation for this week’s spot price increase.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
1. Supply side
Part of the production lines of domestic PA6 production enterprises have entered the maintenance cycle, and the overall operating load of the industry has slightly decreased, resulting in a slowdown in the increase of spot goods in the market. The accumulated inventory in the early stage of the factory has been consumed for a period of time, and the pressure on spot inventory has been alleviated; The manufacturer’s shipping mentality is firm, actively raising spot prices, tightening the supply of spot goods in the market, and favorable prices on the supply side.
2. Demand side
The downstream textile and nylon industry is gradually entering a stocking window period, and the activity of downstream factories in acquiring essential goods has increased; Textile companies purchase raw materials in advance and prepare production orders for autumn and winter fabrics. The concentrated replenishment of downstream customers has driven the recovery of spot transactions, coupled with the bullish mentality of traders, actively replenishing warehouses and acquiring goods, and the supply-demand pattern has turned tighter, driving up the price of sliced products this week.
4、 Short term forecast
In the short term, the upstream caprolactam price of PA6 remains firm, and the support of raw material costs is stable; The favorable situation of low spot inventory and downstream autumn and winter order stocking still exists, and the overall market trend is strong. But at present, the multi cycle price has reached a high level, and there is a need for oscillation and correction to digest the increase after short-term super rise; The future market is likely to fluctuate at a high level, with a slower upward trend. It is necessary to continuously track the price trend of caprolactam raw materials and the follow-up efforts of downstream terminal orders.
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