1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3033 yuan/ton on April 7th, and 2916 yuan/ton on April 15th. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate dropped by 2.20%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3966 yuan/ton on April 7th. On April 15th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3940 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.67%.

2、 Market analysis

Market quotation situation

As of April 15th, the market price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan region is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3560-3660 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

Cost side

This week, the domestic market for raw material phosphate ore remained stable and operated steadily. Among them, the spot circulation of high-grade phosphate ore is relatively tight, while the overall supply of medium and low grade phosphate ore is relatively loose. Currently, the overall performance of the downstream demand side for phosphate ore is average, with downstream users mainly engaged in rigid procurement, and new market transactions are relatively cautious. As of April 15th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

The domestic market price of raw material sulfur has increased this week. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally and the manufacturer’s shipments are smooth. As of April 15th, the reference price for domestic sulfur market is 1203.33 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side

This week, the operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises has declined, and some ammonium phosphate plants have started maintenance or planned maintenance, leading to a reduction in market supply. The situation of sustained sluggish demand has not improved, and market trading is weak. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are more cautious in procurement, with insufficient new orders and a strong wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Technical analysis

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 24, 2024, the 7-day moving average of ammonium phosphate has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is only 13.37%. The probability of ammonium phosphate continuing to move downwards in the short term is relatively high.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 31, 2024, the 7-day moving average of diammonium phosphate has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 24.46%. The probability of ammonium phosphate continuing to move downwards in the short term is relatively high.

4、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyi Society, spring plowing is nearing its end and the ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly. Although there is support on the cost side, downstream demand is not performing well, and the short-term market situation is difficult to improve. Technical analysis also shows a high probability of a downward trend. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will continue to decline.

Recently (April 1-4.12), the market situation of butadiene rubber has slightly improved. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 12th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 13660 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% from 13610 yuan/ton on April 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support; The supply of butadiene rubber has slightly declined; Downstream tire production has remained stable, with on-demand procurement of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber has mainly narrowed after a significant increase in the early stage.

Recently (4.1-4.12), the price of butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 12th, the price of butadiene was 11700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.52% from 11525 yuan/ton on April 1st.

Recently (4.1-4.12), the production of butadiene rubber has slightly rebounded.

Demand side: In the near future (4.1~4.12), downstream tire production is mainly stable, maintaining rigid support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of early April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is close to 680%; But there is resistance from downstream towards high priced Shunding and a small amount of stocking.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the graph of Business Society’s butadiene rubber index shows that after the 7-day moving average crossed the 30 day moving average in early February, it was overall above the 30 day moving average, and during this period, the price of butadiene rubber increased significantly; At present, the 7-day moving average is gradually approaching the 30 day moving average, and there may be a downward trend of breaking through levels in the later stage.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; Some early stage equipment has recently restarted, and there are also some equipment plans for maintenance in the later stage. The expected start of production of butadiene rubber is expected to remain low; The cost and start of production will continue to support the market for butadiene rubber. However, although downstream tire companies are still operating at a relatively high level, their resistance to the high priced supply of butadiene rubber has resulted in less than expected procurement efforts, putting pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the current butadiene rubber market may consolidate in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. This week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79% month on month and a decrease of 8.83% year-on-year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has seen a narrow decline. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term thermal coal market will maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

In recent times, the methanol market has been weak and volatile, with poor cost support. Enterprises are producing normally, and downstream procurement is maintaining strong demand. Business Society’s polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly decline.

This week, the supply side of polyvinyl alcohol has shown positive support and stability, with the price center shifting upwards. As of April 10th, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol for Shengyishe was 12266.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54% compared to yesterday’s (12200.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side:

This week, the acetic acid market is relatively strong and upward. At the beginning of the week, the price of acetic acid fell to a relatively low level, and downstream market purchases increased. The mentality of enterprises was bullish, and the price of acetic acid rebounded after hitting the bottom. Subsequently, the inventory of manufacturers gradually decreased. With the improvement of market trading atmosphere, enterprises had a strong intention to rise, and with the support of mentality, the price of acetic acid continued to rise. As of March 29th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3000 yuan/ton on March 25th, an increase of 3.33%, and the price remained unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Recently, the calcium carbide market has been fluctuating and rising, and the increase in demand is the main factor contributing to the price increase. However, with the continuous updating and implementation of PVC maintenance plans, especially the increase in external sales of supporting calcium carbide, there is an expectation of a significant increase in calcium carbide supply by the end of the month. As of April 10th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe calcium carbide was 3016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared to the beginning of this month (3000.00 yuan/ton).

Overall

Overall, the recent trend in the cost of polyvinyl alcohol has been relatively warm, providing slight positive support for the market. The supply side support is limited, and it is difficult for prices to continue to rise. Currently, intermediaries have no intention of lowering prices. In some regions, the equipment is restarting, and coupled with the continuous low inventory levels of various companies in the market, although the supply is stable in the face of favorable market support, the overall situation of weak demand has not significantly improved. Intermediaries are stocking up on demand, and downstream demand is purchasing, resulting in a flat trading atmosphere.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 1st to 9th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3578 yuan/ton to 3639 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.72%, a month on month increase of 0.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.78%. The market is showing a strong situation in the north and weak in the south, with prices in many northern regions rising. This is mainly due to the strong operation of international crude oil, which has driven up costs and increased demand for temperature recovery. Business owners are reluctant to sell and are pushing up prices; The prices in the southern region are relatively weak, and the decrease in prices from major production enterprises has driven the market price downward.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month for major production enterprises, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have risen this week, with the main positive factors being the attack on the Iranian Embassy in Syria, market concerns that the situation in the Middle East may further escalate, and potential supply risks increasing. As of April 8th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $90.38 per barrel, a decrease of $0.79 or 0.9%.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt varies slightly in different regions. Due to the influence of large-scale rainfall in the southern region during the Qingming Festival, the market demand for asphalt is slightly flat, while scattered demand is mainly in the northern region. Many inquiries for low-priced resources have increased demand due to sunny weather, which provides some support for shipment. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close of April 9th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3820 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3834 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3805 yuan/ton. It closed at 3815 yuan/ton in the last trading day, an increase of 8% or 0.21% compared to the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 106783 lots, and the holding amount was 262115 lots, with a daily increase of 2354 lots.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil will continue to rise, with significant support for asphalt costs; Due to the influence of large-scale rainfall in the southern region during the Qingming Festival, the market demand for goods has been slightly flat, while the demand for sunny weather in the northern region has increased, providing some support for shipments. The asphalt analyst from Business Society predicts that the domestic asphalt market will tend to strengthen and consolidate in the short term.