Last week (June 17-23), the focus of the adhesive short fiber market was relatively warm, with prices slightly increasing. Some large factories have seen an increase of 200-250 yuan/ton, and some are reluctant to sell at low prices due to restrictions on signing orders. Overall, the number of orders signed this week is relatively good. The quotation for the mid to high end market is around 13400-13600 yuan/ton, and the negotiated price is around 13300-13500 yuan/ton. The trend of raw material dissolution pulp is strong and stable, and cost support still exists. People’s cotton yarn factories are mostly following up on demand. The maintenance of viscose short fiber devices is still ongoing, and the overall inventory of manufacturers is not under significant pressure. Some enterprises are experiencing tight shipments, and the supply of viscose short fiber industry is still tight.

The price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of viscose short fibers slightly increased last week (June 17-23). As of June 23, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13420 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week’s price of 13240 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.36%.

In terms of supply: In June 2024, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry declined, some manufacturers underwent maintenance, and the overall market supply decreased. The inventory of various manufacturers is still at a low level, and some factories have tight shipments. There is currently no inventory pressure, and there is some positive support on the supply side.

In terms of demand: Last week, downstream people mainly executed orders in the cotton yarn market, with little price change. There is not a high willingness for inventory of raw material viscose short fibers, and there is no obvious improvement in demand. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited.

In terms of cost: Last week, the market price of raw material dissolution slurry remained strong and stable, providing support for the market. The market prices of auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remained stable, and the cost center remained stable. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is around 7700 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable. Actual orders are negotiated.

Future Market Forecast

The upstream raw material market prices are strong and stable, with low inventory from various manufacturers and tight shipments from some factories, which provides support for the market. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, and the industry is currently entering a low season. Downstream cotton yarn may not have a good recovery, and the overall market sales speed is weak or continues to be stable. It is expected that there is a high probability of stable prices in the short-term adhesive short fiber market, and the market will remain stable. The price of adhesive short fiber is expected to be in the range of 13400-13500 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market on June 24th was 983 yuan/ton, which is 1043 yuan/ton compared to the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market on June 17th. The price of domestic ammonium sulfate market has decreased by 5.75%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of ammonium sulfate has fallen back. The enterprise has stable production and sufficient market supply. The international market transaction price is low, which is bearish for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. At present, downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened, and the mentality of buying up instead of buying down has increased, resulting in insufficient transaction orders in the ammonium sulfate market. As of June 24th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 980 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 950-1020 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate, the market trend of ammonium sulfate has been declining recently, with prices continuing to decline. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate price will be weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic BDO market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. From June 17th to June 21st, the average price of domestic BDO remained at 9035 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.49%. The production of the equipment is stable, and the supply side support is weak, but the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. Downstream demand orders are being purchased at the terminal, and there is a bargaining sentiment under cost pressure. The supply and demand sides are engaged in a game, resulting in a weak and stagnant market focus.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased to 70%, and the market supply of goods is relatively abundant, with weak support from the supply side. Be cautious and observe an increase in emotions. The supply side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: supply is gradually recovering, and the calcium carbide market is operating weakly and steadily. Raw material methanol: The methanol market fluctuates significantly. As of 3:00 pm on June 21st, the domestic methanol price at Taicang is 2500 yuan/ton. The cost side of BDO is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, under the traditional off-season effect of demand, except for the PTMEG spandex industry chain, downstream industries in the terminal sector have slightly lower production, maintaining strict demand for raw materials and suppressing market trends. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the production of equipment is stable, the market supply of goods is abundant, and the supply side support is average. Under the influence of the traditional off-season demand, the downstream of the terminal maintains a strong demand follow-up. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will operate weakly and steadily.

In May, the price of ethylene glycol first fell and then rose

The price of ethylene glycol was weak in June. According to data from Business Society, as of June 20th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4526.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94% compared to the average price of 4484.17 yuan/ton in the East China market on June 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4800 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4450 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4300 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

On June 20, 2024, the mainstream inventory basis price of ethylene glycol was between -33 and -30, and the futures market price rose. The basis price in East China slightly increased during the day, but showed a strengthening trend in the afternoon. The closing price rose to -29 to -25. At present, the basis of forward contracts remains in a near low and far high pattern. At present, the spot price of ethylene glycol at the port is between 4460-4475 yuan/ton.

Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in June

In June, the port inventory showed a sideways fluctuation with a slight increase. As of June 20th, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 749600 tons, an increase of 24500 tons compared to the inventory of 725100 tons on May 30th.

In June, ethylene glycol or oscillating operation will be the main focus

The focus of the ethylene glycol game in June is on downstream polyester demand and supply side variables. In the short term, it is expected that ethylene glycol will mainly operate in a volatile manner in June.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, since June, the spot price of natural rubber in China has first risen and then fell, and then surged and fell back. As of June 18th, the spot rubber price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14502 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47% from 14710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 15071 yuan/ton. Since June, the natural rubber futures market has fluctuated widely. At the beginning of the month, the Shanghai rubber 09 contract opened at 15395 yuan/ton, with a peak of 16110 yuan/ton during trading. As of June 18th, it closed at 14915 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in the production areas is tight, which provides strong support for the natural rubber market. At the beginning of the month, adhesive negotiations in Thailand’s production areas were slow, and raw material prices remained high. In addition, the alternating rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan in China caused some areas to be hindered in rubber cutting, resulting in a relatively tight supply of natural rubber in the domestic market. At present, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by the weather, and the cutting progress is slow. As of June 18th, the price of Thai glue is 77.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price has declined; The continuous rainfall in the Banna production area of Yunnan, China, still affects the progress of rubber cutting.

On the other hand, the slow destocking of natural rubber inventory provides certain support for the natural rubber market. As of June 14, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 525800 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.33%. The inventory in the bonded zone was 76100 tons, a decrease of 4.42%; The general trade inventory was 449700 tons, a decrease of 0.78%.

However, since mid June, downstream tire production has significantly decreased, and in the short term, demand has been dragged down by the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, and natural rubber prices have fallen from high levels. As of June 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 75%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.2%.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply in some domestic and foreign regions is still relatively low, and the overall raw material prices remain high, supporting the cost of natural rubber; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side have a slow speed of destocking, and tire companies are cautious in purchasing natural rubber; At present, the inventory reduction of natural rubber ports is relatively slow. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will continue to maintain a high consolidation trend in the short term. In the later stage, with the increase in supply in production areas and the decrease in downstream off-season production, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fall back from a high level.