According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price trend of acetic acid in June first rose and then fell. As of June 30th, the price was 3080 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3150 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 2.22%.

As of the end of the month, the price details of acetic acid market in various regions of China in June are as follows:

Region/ June 3rd/ June 14th/ June 28th

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3350 yuan/ton/ 3080 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 2955 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3055 yuan/ton

The acetic acid market rose first and then fell in June. In the first half of the month, the main factories on site experienced frequent equipment failures, resulting in a reduction in market supply. The manufacturers had a positive attitude, and the price of acetic acid remained strong and rising; With the restoration of maintenance equipment, the mentality of manufacturers has weakened, coupled with a wait-and-see attitude of downstream and traders, the market trading atmosphere is weak. In the second half of the month, acetic acid manufacturers voluntarily lowered their prices. Later, as the supply of acetic acid in the market increased, manufacturers showed a clear intention to reduce inventory, and acetic acid prices continued to decline.

The methanol market on the raw material side is operating weakly. As of June 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2554.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.51% overall compared to the beginning price of 2761.67 yuan/ton. The overall supply of methanol in the market is sufficient, with downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus. The receiving sentiment is weak, and the market trading is poor. The weak consolidation of methanol prices is the main trend.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that currently, many acetic acid enterprises are operating smoothly, with sufficient market supply. Enterprises are actively shipping, while downstream buyers are not very active. The market mentality is mainly wait-and-see, with limited on exchange trading. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak and stable in the future, with narrow price fluctuations. Specific attention will be paid to downstream restocking in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from June 24th to July 1st, the domestic market price of butadiene increased from 13625 yuan/ton to 13700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.55% during the cycle. The price of butadiene in the market fluctuated narrowly this week, with a weak trend in the East China region. This is mainly due to the weak trend in the downstream rubber industry. Affected by weak demand, prices in the East China region have weakened. Currently, the self pickup price in the East China region is at 13100 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton from last week. There are still some essential purchases in the downstream of Shandong region this week, but the overall transaction atmosphere is also weak, with market prices at 13600 yuan/ton, basically unchanged.

Cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks, and the supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. On the other hand, the Chinese economy continues to rebound and improve, coupled with the arrival of the peak oil consumption season in North America, strongly supporting oil prices. As of June 28th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.54 per barrel, a decrease of $0.20 or 0.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.00 per barrel, a decrease of $0.26 or 0.3%.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 13800 yuan/ton. Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit 2 have not been restarted, and Dushanzi Petrochemical has shut down for maintenance. The comprehensive operating rate in China has not changed much this week, and the supply of butadiene is relatively stable.

Demand side: The downstream synthetic rubber market continued to weaken this week, but overall rigid demand support still exists. With the high volatility of raw material butadiene prices, some downstream entered the market for procurement, but overall transactions were biased towards rigid demand, resulting in insufficient market support and weak operation of the butadiene market.

On Friday, June 28th, the external market of butadiene remained mostly stable, with South Korea FOB trading at $1545-1555 per ton, unchanged; China CFR report 1575-1585 USD/ton, unchanged; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1200-1210 per ton, with an increase of $30 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1075-1085 euros/ton, unchanged.

Market forecast: The overall supply of butadiene is expected to remain stable this week, with some cargo arriving at ports in the future. The market expects a slightly loose supply in the future. In terms of demand, downstream synthetic rubber enterprises have had weak demand recently, which has led to insufficient market support and an overall weak atmosphere in the spot market. Overall, the supply and demand side of the butadiene market is relatively weak, but the external prices remain strong, which provides some support for the market atmosphere. Based on the above, butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will maintain a high and volatile trend in the short term, with a focus on the arrival of cargo at ports in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 28th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6470 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.97% compared to the reference average price of 6600 yuan/ton on June 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 28th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6766 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.73% compared to the reference average price of 6816 yuan/ton on June 1st.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the domestic phosphate market prices fluctuated and fell. As of June 28th, the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6350-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6250-6800 yuan/ton.

Cost side

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market has been weak and declining this month. The market transactions are light, the trading atmosphere is poor, and downstream procurement mentality is cautious. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus price will remain weak in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The market price of phosphate ore has remained stable this month. The inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the shipment of phosphate ore in some areas is stable. It is expected that the domestic phosphate ore prices will remain stable with minor fluctuations in the short term.

Supply and demand side

At present, the phosphoric acid market has sufficient supply and a moderate trading atmosphere. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, with downstream rigid demand procurement being the main focus. Manufacturers and distributors can flexibly adjust their quotations, with a single negotiation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent phosphoric acid market has seen a narrow consolidation and operation. At present, there is insufficient support for costs and demand, and there is currently no positive information in the market. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will remain weak and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell in mid to late June. As of June 27th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3250 yuan/ton on June 11th, with an overall decrease of 3.69%.

The acetic acid market rose first and then fell in the middle and later stages. In the early stage, there was maintenance of acetic acid plants on the site, which led to a reduction in market supply. Business owners had a positive attitude, resulting in an increase in the price of acetic acid; But with the recovery of maintenance equipment, the mentality of manufacturers has weakened. In addition, the enthusiasm of upstream and downstream market entry is not high, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. The mentality of operators is bearish, and the quotation of acetic acid manufacturers has been lowered. Later, as the supply of acetic acid in the market increases, the intention of manufacturers to discharge inventory is obvious, and the quotation of acetic acid continues to decline.

As of June 27th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ June 11th/ June 27th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3135 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ -10

North China region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ -100

Shandong region/ 3250 yuan/ton/ 3130 yuan/ton/ -120

Jiangsu region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ -100

Zhejiang region/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -100

The upstream raw material methanol market is operating weakly. As of June 27th, the average price in the domestic market was 2530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.69% compared to the price of 2600 yuan/ton on June 11th. The overall supply of methanol in the market is sufficient, with downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus. The receiving sentiment is weak, and market trading is poor. Methanol prices remain weak and consolidated.

The downstream acetic anhydride market first rose and then fell. On June 27th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5447.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05% compared to the price of 5450.00 yuan/ton on June 11th. The upstream acetic acid market is mainly operating weakly, with a bearish cost side for acetic anhydride. At the same time, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply, downstream purchases on demand, and limited on exchange trading. The upstream market is driving the weak consolidation of the acetic anhydride market.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the main acetic acid factories on the market are currently operating normally, with high capacity utilization. Although there is currently no inventory pressure on the enterprise, downstream demand is limited, and market trading is mainly based on demand. In the situation of supply exceeding demand, it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be weak and consolidation, and prices may slightly decline. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak recently. At the beginning of June 17th, the average market price was 2120 yuan/ton. On June 26th, the average market price was 2090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% and an increase of 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On June 26th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 107.18, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.32% from the highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and an increase of 69.72% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak recently. Downstream enthusiasm is not high, and many market entries are followed up according to demand. The market trading atmosphere is average, and enterprise transactions are limited. With the accumulation of market inventory, the price of soda ash has been adjusted downward. As of June 26, 2024, the prices of soda ash in East China have mainly stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 2000-2250 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China have also stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass has dropped. On June 17th, the market average price was 20.23 yuan/square meter, and on June 26th, the market average price was 19.82 yuan/square meter, a price drop of 2.03%. Glass downstream is purchased on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 25th week of 2024 (6.17-6.21), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling include PVC (-1.28%), light soda ash (-0.71%), and baking soda (-0.51%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.43%..

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of pure alkali is operating weakly, with slight fluctuations in spot alkali plant equipment and relatively high supply. In terms of downstream demand, procurement is not active, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. It is expected that the later stage of pure alkali consolidation may be weak, depending on downstream market demand.