First, the trend analysis

According to business community data, nickel prices rebounded slightly after a sharp fall this week. At the beginning of the week, the nickel price was 114,100 yuan / ton. On the weekend, the nickel price fell to 11,1037.5 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.68%.

Second, the market trend analysis

At the beginning of this week, Shanghai Nickel 1811 opened at 113,080 yuan, and then the price rose to a maximum of 114,500 yuan. After that, it fell all the way, closing at 110,090 yuan on Friday. On Friday morning, the highest price reached 114,940 yuan, the week fell 3,170 yuan, and the weekly decline was 2.80%. This week’s spot supply is generally, Jinchuan nickel premiums maintain b1800 yuan / ton level, Russian nickel supply increased compared with last week, premiums maintained b300 yuan / ton, due to the low price of nickel, traders out of Jinchuan nickel is not much, downstream procurement Russian nickel is more active, and the overall market is generally trading.

On the macro level, the Trump administration has been radical, and China, Russia, Iran and Turkey have been suppressed to varying degrees. This week, the Lira plunged, the Turkish crisis, and the US dollar rose, causing pessimism in the market and putting pressure on nickel prices.

In terms of inventory, domestic nickel inventories fell from 18,844 tons to 18,104 tons this week. The pattern of LME stocks has remained unchanged, supporting nickel, and the space in the medium and long term nickel is limited. On the other hand, the recent decline in global nickel inventories has slowed down. Overall, the supply and demand situation of electrolytic nickel has eased. The superimposed nickel sulfate premium has decreased, and new energy cathode materials orders have weakened.

On the demand side, nickel’s future demand is strong, including new energy batteries, boosted by China’s infrastructure, and the peak season effect of gold, nine, and silver.

Third, the outlook outlook

Nickel analysts of the business community Nonferrous Metals believe that this week’s Turkish crisis triggered a wave of asset-selling in the whole market. The strong US dollar made the non-ferrous metals fall sharply, but the fundamentals of nickel prices are still acceptable, stocks continue to decline, and future demand is good, but nickel Metal properties are still greatly affected by macro factors. The uncertainty of Sino-US trade still has a large impact. It is expected that if the US dollar continues to rise in the future, nickel has a short-term weakening probability, and the price is between 100,000-120,000 yuan/ton.

On August 14, the PX Commodity Index was 66.40, which was the same as yesterday. It was down by 35.16% from the highest point of 102.40 points (2013-02-28) in the cycle, which was 45.77% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic market price of para-xylene remained at 8,300 yuan/ton, the on-site installation of Pengzhou Petrochemical was overhauled, and the Urumqi petrochemical plant was started at 50%. The Tenglong aromatics plant has been in operation, other devices are temporarily operating stably, and the domestic paraxylene market is normal. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is less than 70%. On August 14, the closing price of the paraxylene market in Asia increased by US$16/ton, and the closing price was US$1132-1134/ton FOB Korea and 1151-1153 USD/ton CFR China, USA WTI crude oil September futures market price fell to 67.04 US dollars / barrel, a decline of 0.16 US dollars, Brent crude oil October futures prices fell to 72.46 US dollars / barrel, a decline of 0.15 US dollars, even if the upstream raw material prices fell slightly, but recently The textile industry has risen sharply, and the PX market price remains high. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production, and the PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. As of the 14th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 81.6%, the PTA price continued to rise, and the average price of the East China region was 7850-7900 yuan. /Ton the vicinity of the self-lifting, coupled with the downstream production and sales maintained relatively high level of smooth operation, PTA is still in a balanced small de-stocking state, it is expected that the PX market price will remain high in the later period.

On August 13, according to media reports, due to less-than-expected shipments and demand for stocks during the rainy season, the supply of nickel ore in the third quarter turned into a shortage, and the price of nickel ore will rise.

First, the price trend

According to the statistics of the business community, the market price of cryolite dropped slightly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 6,600 yuan/ton, and the weekend was 6,571 yuan/ton, and the price fell 0.43%.

Second, the market analysis

Products: This week, the price of cryolite is basically stable, and the manufacturer’s price adjustment intention is not big: Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade cryolite price 6500 yuan / ton, Changshu Hongjia Fluorine Co., Ltd. cryolite 7200 yuan / ton, Jiaozuo citizen Lee Industrial cryolite offer 7200 yuan / ton, Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal technology cryolite offer 6500 yuan / ton, Zhengzhou Zerun energy and chemical cryolite 5600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: upstream hydrofluoric acid: According to statistics, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined slightly in the near future. The domestic hydrofluoric acid operating rate is around 70%. The company reflects that the current supply of hydrofluoric acid in the market is sufficient, and the market is in the near future. Some enterprises have seen a slight decline in ex-factory prices. As of now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is about 10,500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,500-11,000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower, the supply of spot goods is normal, and the recent downstream receiving market is generally low. The purchase of hydrogen fluoride market has weakened slightly, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has declined slightly. Downstream electrolytic aluminum: The price of electrolytic aluminum was slightly adjusted this week. The price at the beginning of the week was at 14,335 yuan/ton, the weekend was 14,672, and the price was lowered by 2.35%.

Third, the market outlook

The analyst of the cryolite industry of the Chemical Industry Chemicals Branch believes that the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid has little effect on cryolite, and the demand for cryolite in the downstream has not improved. It is expected that the price of cryolite will be stabilized next week.

First, the price trend

Into the third quarter, the domestic phenol market has a warming trend, but the market pushed up the momentum in July, and the increase was small. In August, with the frequent inspection and maintenance information of major manufacturers, and the manufacturers controlled the goods, the market pushed up, after several times. The listing has been raised, and the total number of manufacturers has risen by 1,300 yuan/ton, and the current market reflects a larger increase of 1,500 yuan/ton. As of now, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the factory offers at the beginning of August is 9411 yuan/ton, and the 9th offer is 10287. Yuan/ton, an increase of 9.31%.
Second, analysis and review

Products: Looking back on the first half of 2018, phenol fell sharply in the first quarter. After the anti-dumping investigation and supply shortage in the second quarter, the price was quickly adjusted back. However, the high level continued to be less than one month. In May, the Lianyungang estuary pollution incident made the Jiangsu area The environmental protection pressure of various enterprises is relatively high. In the short term, Jiangsu environmental protection has become a key rectification area. In the later period, environmental protection in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hebei, Henan and other places has also been promoted. In addition, Qingdao’s Shanghe Summit was held in June, and demand in Shandong has also decreased. Logistics transportation is limited, and this decline continues until mid-July. In July, manufacturers began to plan maintenance information frequently, traders reluctant to sell, manufacturers control goods, the market began to push up, thick accumulation, and went all the way up in August.

Phenol main market offer situation: As of now, the supply in East China is relatively good, the mainstream reference offer is 10,300 yuan / ton, which is the same as the manufacturer’s offer; the first-level and second-tier traders in Yanshan area are actively stocking, and the next month, Zhongsha Tianjin overhaul 20 For many days, the current mainstream of negotiations in the region is 10,500 yuan / ton; the manufacturers in Shandong are operating normally, relatively stable, the mainstream offer is 10,400 yuan / ton; in the South China Huizhou Zhongxin parking and overhaul, the plant offers 10,700 yuan / ton, the region Traders are nervous.

Industry chain: Upstream products, pure benzene and propylene prices have brought certain support to phenol prices. The price of pure benzene Sinopec listed is frequently raised, and the current offer is 7,000 yuan / ton, and the new downstream production capacity is good for pure benzene. The pure benzene market is full of confidence and the price is stable. In terms of raw material propylene, the profit drove the polypropylene plant’s operating rate to increase significantly. The demand for propylene increased, and the propylene market remained high, setting a new high in the year. Downstream, the current market demand for phenol downstream terminal is stable, but traders below the phenol level 2 are optimistic about the market, actively stocking, and relatively good demand.

In terms of supply, since the third quarter, some domestic phenolic ketone manufacturers have stopped or planned to overhaul.

Third, the market outlook

Good factors, the market has been weak before mid-July, although the market has been quite price but lack of motivation. After mid-term, traders are more active in the market. At one time, traders have cleared their positions. After hearing some downstream environmental protection, they resumed work. Some traders are reluctant to sell. The offer was higher on a daily basis, and the low price was hard to find. The market offer was higher than the manufacturer’s 200-300 yuan/ton. The manufacturers issued maintenance information, and the market supply was tight and pushed up in August. Two major manufacturers in South China and Northeast China overhaul, Shandong and North China manufacturers limited, the market supply is gradually strained. Negative factors, the downstream demand of phenol is an important factor for whether to maintain high or even continue to rise. At present, downstream end users just need to purchase mainly, and the start of the field is relatively stable. The increase is relatively large and relatively concentrated. It can be said that the downstream has not yet Digestion is inevitable for high positions. The phenol analyst of the business community believes that the middle traders are actively shipping in the second half of August. If the downstream acceptance is normal, it will affect the future price trend. At present, the market is still pushing up, or will continue to rise 300-500 yuan / ton, It is still difficult to maintain a high position at the end of the season.