First, the trend analysis
According to business community data, nickel prices rebounded slightly after a sharp fall this week. At the beginning of the week, the nickel price was 114,100 yuan / ton. On the weekend, the nickel price fell to 11,1037.5 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.68%.
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Second, the market trend analysis
At the beginning of this week, Shanghai Nickel 1811 opened at 113,080 yuan, and then the price rose to a maximum of 114,500 yuan. After that, it fell all the way, closing at 110,090 yuan on Friday. On Friday morning, the highest price reached 114,940 yuan, the week fell 3,170 yuan, and the weekly decline was 2.80%. This week’s spot supply is generally, Jinchuan nickel premiums maintain b1800 yuan / ton level, Russian nickel supply increased compared with last week, premiums maintained b300 yuan / ton, due to the low price of nickel, traders out of Jinchuan nickel is not much, downstream procurement Russian nickel is more active, and the overall market is generally trading.
On the macro level, the Trump administration has been radical, and China, Russia, Iran and Turkey have been suppressed to varying degrees. This week, the Lira plunged, the Turkish crisis, and the US dollar rose, causing pessimism in the market and putting pressure on nickel prices.
In terms of inventory, domestic nickel inventories fell from 18,844 tons to 18,104 tons this week. The pattern of LME stocks has remained unchanged, supporting nickel, and the space in the medium and long term nickel is limited. On the other hand, the recent decline in global nickel inventories has slowed down. Overall, the supply and demand situation of electrolytic nickel has eased. The superimposed nickel sulfate premium has decreased, and new energy cathode materials orders have weakened.
On the demand side, nickel’s future demand is strong, including new energy batteries, boosted by China’s infrastructure, and the peak season effect of gold, nine, and silver.
Third, the outlook outlook
Nickel analysts of the business community Nonferrous Metals believe that this week’s Turkish crisis triggered a wave of asset-selling in the whole market. The strong US dollar made the non-ferrous metals fall sharply, but the fundamentals of nickel prices are still acceptable, stocks continue to decline, and future demand is good, but nickel Metal properties are still greatly affected by macro factors. The uncertainty of Sino-US trade still has a large impact. It is expected that if the US dollar continues to rise in the future, nickel has a short-term weakening probability, and the price is between 100,000-120,000 yuan/ton.
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