The U.S. Gulf acetone market closed at a stable price of $738-762 per ton on January 23, FOB U.S. Gulf.

On January 22, the PX commodity index was 68.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.81% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 51.04% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene has increased, and the market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia rose to about 80%. On January 22, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 7 US dollars per ton. The closing price was US$106 5-1067 per ton FOB in Korea and US$108 4-1086 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic imports were needed. The decline of foreign prices had a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the domestic market price maintained 8,600 yuan per ton.

On January 22, the price of WTI crude oil in March fell to 52.57 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 1.23 U.S. dollars. The price of Brent crude oil in March fell to 61.50 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 1.24 U.S. dollars. The price of crude oil slightly declined. The price support for downstream petrochemical products was limited, and the price trend of p-xylene Market was temporarily stable. Recent textile industry market is general, PTA price has risen sharply recently. The average price of offer in East China is raised near 6600-6800 yuan/ton. As of 22 days, domestic PTA start-up rate is about 81.5% and polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%. In addition, the market price of PTA has risen sharply. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain 8600 yuan/ton in the later period.

“After the price cut in 2018, lithium products will remain at a low price for some time, or return to a high point around 2025.” Li, chairman of Lubon Industry Co., Ltd., said at the Asian Battery Metal Seminar held on January 17.

With the release of new capacity, domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell all the way in 2018, offering only 77,000-82,000 yuan/ton in December, a drop of 53.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide fell slightly, but the December offer also fell 23.19% from the beginning of the year.

According to the statistics of Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM), the new capacity of lithium hydroxide in China in 2018 totals about 355,000 tons, of which Ganfeng lithium industry and Ruifu lithium industry in Shandong have achieved mass production. Domestic lithium hydroxide production in 2018 is expected to be about 57,000 tons, an increase of 78.1% over last year.

According to the prediction of China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch, driven by power batteries, the global demand for lithium carbonate will increase from 265,000 tons in 2017 to 400,000 tons in 2020. However, considering that capacity growth is faster than demand growth, the global supply and demand structure of lithium products is reversing. It is estimated that by 2021, China will increase lithium production capacity by about 206,500 tons and the world will increase lithium production capacity by about 409,500 tons, but the global demand for new lithium products is only about 200,000 tons in the same period.

Huatai Securities believes that in 2019, the trend of lithium supply and demand pattern from balance to excess is difficult to reverse, and lithium prices have gradually approached industry costs.

“But excess is a short-term phenomenon, and lithium is scarce in the long run.” Liu Nanping said that historical data show that the price cycle of lithium products is about 10 years. With the rapid growth of demand and supply, this cycle may be shortened. It is expected that the price of lithium products will return to high prices around 2025. By then, the global demand for lithium carbonate may exceed one million tons.

Another industry insider, who did not want to be named, was more optimistic, arguing that the growth in demand for power batteries brought about by electrification in the transport sector would push lithium prices up rapidly in 2023.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology predicts that by 2020, China’s sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million, with more than 5 million vehicles in possession. According to the target of the medium and long-term development plan of the automobile industry, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 7 million by 2025.

According to Haitong Securities’recent research report, global sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to reach 3.429 million by 2020, and the corresponding demand for lithium carbonate will reach 139.8 million tons.

Some industry analysts predict that the downstream demand for lithium carbonate will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 16% over the next five years. With the extensive application of high nickel batteries, the demand for lithium hydroxide will also increase rapidly. It is estimated that the composite growth rate of global demand for lithium hydroxide in battery field will reach 78% from 2018 to 2020.

According to Standard & Poor’s, lithium demand for electric passenger cars will increase by about ten times by 2025.

At present, it has been proved that the global lithium reserves are about 16 million tons and the resources are about 53 million tons. Mainly distributed in Chile, Argentina, Australia and other countries, of which China reserves about 3.2 million tons, resources about 7 million tons.

Liu Bingjiang, director of the Department of Atmospheric Environment of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said in Beijing on Monday that in 2018, China’s key regions continued to implement total coal consumption control. For the first time, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption was less than 60%, and the consumption of non-fossil energy and natural gas increased significantly.

Liu Bingjiang said that in 2018, China steadily carried out energy restructuring and optimization. For the first time, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption is less than 60%, and the consumption of non-fossil energy and natural gas has increased significantly. All localities have actively promoted the comprehensive renovation of coal-fired boilers, and more than 30,000 small boilers under 10 steam tons per hour have been eliminated in accordance with the law throughout the country. In key areas, we will accelerate the elimination of coal-fired boilers below 35 steam tons per hour, and actively promote the transformation of ultra-low emissions of coal-fired boilers above 65 steam tons per hour.

China is a country with more coal and less oil. The proven coal reserves account for 33.8% of the world’s coal reserves. China’s coal output ranked first in the world for many years. Coal played a leading role in China’s disposable energy structure. In the 1950s, coal consumption accounted for 90% of the total energy. In recent years, under the constraints of economic transformation, environmental protection and other factors, the growth rate of coal consumption has slowed down significantly. Coal accounted for 69.2% of energy consumption in 2010 and 64% in 2015.

The National Strategic Action Plan for Energy Development (2014-2020) proposed that by 2020, China’s total coal consumption should be controlled at about 4.2 billion tons, with a proportion of less than 62%, and that Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong provinces and cities should reduce their coal consumption by 100 million tons compared with 2012, while the total coal consumption in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions will increase negatively.

Liu Bingjiang said that 2019 was the year when China won the battle to defend the blue sky. We will speed up the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, energy structure, transportation structure and land use structure in conjunction with relevant departments in various regions, promote economic development and environmental protection, and promote the continuous improvement of air quality in the country.

Guangzhou Daily News International Oil Price rose sharply last weekend: Light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.73 to $53.8 a barrel, an increase of 3.32%. London Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $1.52, or 2.48%, to $62.7 a barrel.

Prices of refined petroleum products have risen in succession

The implementation of “production reduction” by international crude oil exporting countries contributed to the surge of international oil prices in January. Last weekend, the monthly report on the oil market issued by the International Energy Agency said that major oil producers had recently begun to implement their production reduction commitments. Crude oil output in OPEC member countries fell 751,000 barrels a day to 31.58 million barrels a day last December, the biggest decline in nearly two years.

At the same time, the cold weather in winter also makes the oil supply a little tight. Low temperatures in the northern hemisphere increase short-term uncertainty.

However, OPEC (International Organization of Crude Oil Exporting Countries) stressed in its report that global demand for OPEC crude oil in 2019 was about 30.83 million barrels per day, down by 910,000 barrels per day from the previous year, a decline of 2.87%. Oil-producing countries as a whole are not optimistic about oil demand.

On the first day of price adjustment of refined oil in 2019, the price of refined oil began to rise. Today, five trading days have passed. At present, Zhuochuang and other institutions have recorded a 6.63% change rate in crude oil. The price of domestic refined oil has been raised by 251 yuan/ton (0.19 yuan/liter-0.22 yuan/liter) in an integrated manner. The amount is considerable. According to the current trend, the price of oil will probably rise in two consecutive years in 2019.

Domestic asphalt, PP, etc.

Chemical products rebounded sharply

Chemical energy sector has the greatest short-term response to the rebound in oil prices. Apart from the direct benefits of domestic crude oil and fuel oil, the main contracts of asphalt, PP and PVP have rebounded for five consecutive trading days. The single-day increase of asphalt on Thursday and Friday was more than 3%. Methanol and glass also have positive reactions. Crude oil is the basic raw material of all chemical raw materials, and asphalt is the final product of crude oil smelting.

In addition, the black sector also rebounded. The midline rise of power coal and coking coal can also match the rise of crude oil price. Coke, for example, has risen by more than 15% since its December low. Black products belong to “quasi-energy” products. Coal and crude oil have partial substitution. Rising crude oil prices are also conducive to a rebound in the prices of these products.

Nonferrous metals have been slow to rebound against rising oil prices, and some metals have even continued to fall. In theory, the trend of oil price should be consistent with that of precious metals, and it will also promote other non-ferrous metals. Similar products are expected to have a “supplementary” market.

Probability of oil price

Wide amplitude oscillation

Analysts at Huatai Securities and CIC Securities (Guangzhou Business Department) believe that in the midline, the oil price probability has maintained a broad, high-frequency oscillation pattern, and the rebound has temporarily seen $58 per barrel. In this case, a wide range of commodities with high correlation with crude oil will also maintain a pattern of high-frequency shocks. The trend of black products such as threaded steel and coke is more related to national policies than crude oil prices.

Oil price trend:

So far, international oil prices have risen from a low of $42.36 per ounce at the end of 2018, rebounding by 27.4%. International oil prices have fallen by 45% in three months since September 4, 2018 at $76.9. Now the V-shaped trend has been achieved without changing the pattern of wide-band and high-frequency oscillation.