Guangzhou Daily News International Oil Price rose sharply last weekend: Light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.73 to $53.8 a barrel, an increase of 3.32%. London Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $1.52, or 2.48%, to $62.7 a barrel.
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
Prices of refined petroleum products have risen in succession
The implementation of “production reduction” by international crude oil exporting countries contributed to the surge of international oil prices in January. Last weekend, the monthly report on the oil market issued by the International Energy Agency said that major oil producers had recently begun to implement their production reduction commitments. Crude oil output in OPEC member countries fell 751,000 barrels a day to 31.58 million barrels a day last December, the biggest decline in nearly two years.
At the same time, the cold weather in winter also makes the oil supply a little tight. Low temperatures in the northern hemisphere increase short-term uncertainty.
However, OPEC (International Organization of Crude Oil Exporting Countries) stressed in its report that global demand for OPEC crude oil in 2019 was about 30.83 million barrels per day, down by 910,000 barrels per day from the previous year, a decline of 2.87%. Oil-producing countries as a whole are not optimistic about oil demand.
On the first day of price adjustment of refined oil in 2019, the price of refined oil began to rise. Today, five trading days have passed. At present, Zhuochuang and other institutions have recorded a 6.63% change rate in crude oil. The price of domestic refined oil has been raised by 251 yuan/ton (0.19 yuan/liter-0.22 yuan/liter) in an integrated manner. The amount is considerable. According to the current trend, the price of oil will probably rise in two consecutive years in 2019.
Domestic asphalt, PP, etc.
| PVA |
Chemical products rebounded sharply
Chemical energy sector has the greatest short-term response to the rebound in oil prices. Apart from the direct benefits of domestic crude oil and fuel oil, the main contracts of asphalt, PP and PVP have rebounded for five consecutive trading days. The single-day increase of asphalt on Thursday and Friday was more than 3%. Methanol and glass also have positive reactions. Crude oil is the basic raw material of all chemical raw materials, and asphalt is the final product of crude oil smelting.
In addition, the black sector also rebounded. The midline rise of power coal and coking coal can also match the rise of crude oil price. Coke, for example, has risen by more than 15% since its December low. Black products belong to “quasi-energy” products. Coal and crude oil have partial substitution. Rising crude oil prices are also conducive to a rebound in the prices of these products.
Nonferrous metals have been slow to rebound against rising oil prices, and some metals have even continued to fall. In theory, the trend of oil price should be consistent with that of precious metals, and it will also promote other non-ferrous metals. Similar products are expected to have a “supplementary” market.
Probability of oil price
Wide amplitude oscillation
Analysts at Huatai Securities and CIC Securities (Guangzhou Business Department) believe that in the midline, the oil price probability has maintained a broad, high-frequency oscillation pattern, and the rebound has temporarily seen $58 per barrel. In this case, a wide range of commodities with high correlation with crude oil will also maintain a pattern of high-frequency shocks. The trend of black products such as threaded steel and coke is more related to national policies than crude oil prices.
Oil price trend:
So far, international oil prices have risen from a low of $42.36 per ounce at the end of 2018, rebounding by 27.4%. International oil prices have fallen by 45% in three months since September 4, 2018 at $76.9. Now the V-shaped trend has been achieved without changing the pattern of wide-band and high-frequency oscillation.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |