According to the data of business associations, the domestic sulphur market declined on July 16, with the average ex-factory price of sulphur market in East China falling by 4.59% at 900 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic sulphur market prices have been sharply lowered, downstream demand performance is still weak, in order to stimulate shipments, refineries in various regions have increased their prices. East China market has dropped by 40-70 yuan/ton, Shandong market by 30 yuan/ton, and North China market by 20-30 yuan/ton. At present, there is a lack of substantive information guidance in the venue, the demand of downstream enterprises is weak, the overall atmosphere is cold, and the atmosphere of standstill and wait-and-see is strong.

Industry chain: The vulnerable sorting of sulphur market continues to decline. Some acid plants have been repaired. The downstream demand performance is still weak. The market is not good. The price is low or will go down.

III. Price Forecast

According to business associations, short-term domestic sulphur market or continued shock consolidation.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on July 15 was 106366.67 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from 103816.67 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, 18.83% from the beginning of the year and 4.37% from the previous year. Since July 2, nickel has broken through the 100,000 mark, up 8,000 yuan/ton by 8.61%.

According to the current nickel futures table of business associations, the spot price of nickel is mostly higher than the main contract price in the near future. The main contract price is the price of nickel in the next two months. The spot price is higher than the main contract price of nickel, indicating that people are not so optimistic about the future of nickel. The frequent rise in nickel prices is mainly due to multiple factors that cause concerns about nickel supply.

A magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred in Hamahei, Indonesia

At 17:10 on July 14, an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 occurred in Hamahera Island, Indonesia (0.52 degrees south latitude, 128.17 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 km and frequent aftershocks. Halmahera Island is one of the main producers of laterite nickel mines in Indonesia. Mines are mainly concentrated in Buli, Weda, Subayin, Gebe and Obi. The location of the earthquake is indeed relatively close to that of mines and ferronickel factories.

However, it is understood that although the local mines and smelters are not directly affected and the roads and wharfs in the port area are not damaged, there are mines on Obi Island and mining enterprises in Weda Bay suspended shipment. From past experience, shipment is relatively vulnerable to natural disasters, but as long as the infrastructure is not damaged, the general duration is not long, it will be restored in a few days.

Indonesian government may resume export ban in 2022

A media report about the resumption of the export ban by the Indonesian government in 2022 has raised market concerns. Indonesia eased the ban in 2017, but at the time the government said it would only last five years and would restrict exports again by 2022. But Colin Hamilton, an analyst at BMOCapital Markets, said many were sceptical that the ban would be reintroduced.

Second round of mining censorship in the Philippines

On July 9, Philippine Deputy Finance Minister Bayani Agabin said on Tuesday that the Philippine Mining Coordination Committee (MICC) will organize a second round of objective, on the basis of scientific evidence and fact-finding domestic mining project reviews in the last week of July, which will last for six months. The second round involved 17 mines in the Philippines. However, only 17 mines were inspected in this round, much lower than 27 in the first round. Therefore, in the second half of 2019, the direct impact of nickel mining in the Philippines is relatively small. At the same time, after the first round of review, the mine has begun to pay attention to the legitimacy of mining procedures.

The main sources of nickel supply are the Philippines and Indonesia. The earthquake in Indonesia and the resumption of export ban in Indonesia, as well as the resumption of 17 sound censorship in the Philippines, together with the earlier shutdown of a nickel mining plant in Vale, have caused concerns about nickel supply, which has led to a continuous surge in nickel prices. However, in the downstream demand, the new energy industry is temporarily resting, and the output growth rate of new energy vehicles is obviously declining. In addition, the actual consumption of stainless steel downstream is not as expected, the stock of society and steel mills is accumulating, and the price of stainless steel is under pressure. In summary, nickel price supply is expected to be tight, but downstream consumption is very weak, low nickel inventory is still difficult to alleviate in the short term. It is expected that nickel prices will remain strong in the short term and should not be overly optimistic in the long term.

LONDON, July 11 (Reuters) – OPEC forecast on Thursday that global demand for its crude oil will decline next year as competitors pump more crude oil, suggesting a surplus despite the OPEC-led agreement to limit supply.

The decline in OPEC’s demand for crude oil underlines that OPEC’s policy of supporting oil prices by cutting production is continuing to boost the supply of shale and other competitors in the United States.

In its monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) gave its first forecast for 2020, saying that next year the world will need 29.27 million barrels of crude oil per day from 14 member countries, a decrease of 1.34 million barrels compared with this year.

OPEC said that “tight U.S. crude oil production is expected to continue to grow, because the new pipeline will allow more Permian crude oil to flow into the U.S. Gulf Coast Export Center.”

In the report, OPEC also predicted that, despite the slowdown in growth in the major economies of the world, world oil demand will grow at the same pace this year, and the world economy will grow at the same rate this year.

On July 11, the rare earth index was 386 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 61.40% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 42.44% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 415,000 yuan/ton, dysprosium metal is 2.4 million yuan/ton and praseodymium metal is 710,000 yuan/ton. The average price of praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 322,500 yuan/ton, dysprosium oxide is 192,000 yuan/ton, praseodymium oxide is 405,000 yuan/ton and neodymium oxide is 324,500 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 415,000 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.92 million yuan per ton.

Recent price declines in rare earth market, domestic rare earth market trading market is general, most commodity prices in the rare earth market are stable, but in the near future, prices of some products in the rare earth market have fallen, prices of dysprosium and terbium metals have fallen, prices of praseodymium and neodymium series products have fallen in the near future, on-site supply is normal, and prices of light rare earth have fallen in the near future. Slippery. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is still tense. The price trend of rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, large enterprise groups on the market are reluctant to sell. The market trend of rare earth is poor. However, major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has declined.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar restricts exports and reduces supply, but rare earth market transactions are limited in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to fall.

On July 10, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 57.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.20% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 18.59% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiations is 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the phthalic anhydride market in North China is still under pressure. Mainstream quotation is 5900-6000 yuan/ton, market price rises slightly, quotations of enterprises are slightly higher, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, phthalic anhydride price trend is rising.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import price of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, and the quotation has risen. Recently, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is higher, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend shocks, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price rises, isooctanol price rises, DOP cost rises. DOP price shocks are higher, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks are stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7400 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure is weakened, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.