1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market in February was relatively weak, and the spot price was mostly reduced. As of Monday, March 2, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 7016.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of February.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: according to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the domestic market price of propylene in the upstream of PP has been declining since February, and the overall trend is downward. Among them, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has declined all the way. In addition, social health events have affected many units in the upstream and downstream industries to stop production and repair, and the operating rate is still low. Under the pressure of inventory in some refineries, low-cost shipments have been made. There are few staged transactions in the market, and the market is cold. China’s propylene market bottomed out in May. During the period, the crude oil market changed little in terms of raw materials, but it was raised for several days in a row. The propylene production is relatively small, but the return to work of terminal manufacturers is on the rise, and the logistics and transportation are also recovering, which has a certain effect on alleviating the weak demand for propylene. The market price of propylene is expected to increase in recent days.

Product: in early February, the domestic logistics was not smooth, which led to the increase of PP inventory pressure in petrochemical plants. In terms of demand, although downstream factories began to resume work, there were fewer workers and lower starting load. By the end of February, the domestic logistics was further restored. At present, the sales of low-cost materials were good, and the manufacturers were consuming inventory smoothly. Petrochemical plant inventory pressure has been eased, and the confidence of operators has been boosted. In terms of demand, the downstream factories have resumed work one after another, the factory’s operating rate has increased, and there is a phenomenon of replenishment. Producers and distributors are stable in mind, and it’s OK to go single.

3、 Future forecast

PP analysts of business club think: from the result, the domestic PP spot market in February was generally weak, and the upstream propylene price rebounded to the bottom, which reflected the support of PP cost end until the end of the month. The resistance of Limited Logistics and transportation began to reduce, and the resumption of downstream factories accelerated. The demand has improved, the stock of petrochemical plants has decreased, the operators are on the market, and the orders are stable. It is expected that PP market will fluctuate or go higher in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the market of cost end propylene.

1、 Price trend

The domestic butadiene market is still low this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of butadiene in China at the beginning of the week was 6393 yuan / ton, while the market price of butadiene at the end of the week was 6223 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.66% in the week, 22.76% in the month on month ratio and 33.41% in the year-on-year ratio.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic butadiene market weak finishing, with the north high price offer transaction block, the spot market back to a weak situation. Although some of the downstream terminals resumed work in succession within the week, the actual demand did not improve significantly, and the demand side did not bring a positive boost to the market for the time being, but the domestic spot supply was abundant, and the supply and demand fundamentals still put pressure on the market. In recent years, affected by the expansion of public health events, the continuous decline of bulk commodities has a certain negative impact on the mentality of businesses. In addition, the decline of butadiene market and Sinopec’s supply price continue to decline, which have brought drag on the spot market. In the short term, although the northern lower reaches just need to support the market slightly at the bottom, the market performance is still weak under supply pressure.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China continued to decrease by 300 yuan / ton to 6500 yuan / ton; the price of butadiene in Liaotong chemical industry was 5810 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 100 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; lianhengli’s 140000 ton / year butadiene plant was in normal operation, and some of its products were sold abroad, with a slight increase of 50 yuan / ton on a month on month basis to 5760 yuan / ton; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s 70000 ton / year butadiene plant was in normal operation, with a quotation of 5800 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous month, the price of CFR China fell 300 yuan / ton; the impact of public health events expanded, and the price of CFR China fell 30 dollars / ton to 750 dollars / ton.

Industrial chain: SBR: this week, domestic SBR sales companies adjusted the mainstream factory price range. This week, the start-up rate of styrene butadiene plant is around 5.60%; Qilu, Yangzi, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua and Bridgestone styrene butadiene plants are all in normal operation; Shenhua and Weitai styrene butadiene plants continue to reduce the negative operation; at present, the first-line production of solution polymerized styrene butadiene rubber is planned to be scheduled to the end of this month; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber plants continue to stop Vehicle.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales companies has risen and fallen with each other. This week, the operating rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant has slightly increased to around 6.0%. With the logistics, warehouse, etc. returning to normal operation in succession, Yangtze, Qilu and other cis-4-polybutadiene units have returned to normal operation, and the overall operating rate of cis-4-polybutadiene has slightly increased compared with the previous cycle.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the start-up of synthetic rubber is acceptable, and there is a certain amount of rigid demand in the north and downstream. On the negative side, there was no price difference between the north and the south, the circulation of goods was blocked, public health events affected the decline of external and bulk commodities, and the domestic spot supply was under pressure. In short term, the price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber is obvious, and the overall commencement of rubber industry is acceptable. In addition, the rubber latex industry has been resumed in succession, and the downstream demand has brought a certain bottom support to butadiene market. However, the macro news and external market performance is short, and the domestic butadiene spot supply is still under pressure. The high upstream and downstream inventory results in slow digestion process, which makes it difficult for the supply and demand fundamentals of butadiene to show a significant positive boost. The butadiene analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will maintain a downward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the internal and external news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP fell in February, and the market of DOP was weak. As of February 29, the price of DOP in East China was 7233.33 yuan / ton, down 0.91% compared with 7300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 13.20% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey of data analysts, more than 80% of plasticizer enterprises started production in February, but affected by the epidemic situation, there were more low load operations, and the output was lower than that of previous years; however, affected by logistics, it was difficult for DOP to ship, the market was basically closed, the plasticizer market was priced or not, and DOP enterprises had serious inventory backlog.

In February, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant was gradually restored, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply. On the DOP market negative, DOP fell under greater pressure.

In February, the octanol market fell, and octanol enterprises started to recover. However, affected by the transportation, the octanol transaction was low, and it was difficult for manufacturers to ship. Octanol prices fell, DOP costs fell, on the DOP market negative. The downward pressure of DOP is high.

3、 Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, in February, the price of plasticizer DOP raw materials fell sharply, the cost of DOP fell, and the pressure of DOP fell was great; DOP enterprises gradually resumed construction, but the operating rate decreased compared with previous years, and the supply of DOP decreased compared with previous years, but the logistics and transportation limited enterprises had difficulty in shipping, and DOP enterprises had serious inventory overstock. For the future market, downstream enterprises gradually resume construction, and DOP demand slowly picks up, but in the short term, DOP prices are difficult to pick up in order to deal with inventory. In the short term, DOP market fluctuates and falls.

In recent years, the price of rare earth in China has continued to rise. Since mid February, the price of heavy rare earth in China has increased by about 9.5%, and the price of terbium oxide has increased by 150000 yuan / ton to 4125000 yuan / ton. The price trend of some rare earth products in China is as follows:

In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth in the domestic market has risen sharply, with a rise of 9.4% in February. As of the 27th day, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.825 million yuan / ton, or 7.35%; the price of dysprosium metal was 2.325 million yuan / ton, or 9.41%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.8 million yuan / ton, or 6.82% in February. In the near future, the price of heavy rare earth in China has risen sharply, while some prices in light rare earth market have fallen slightly.

On February 26, the rare earth index was 342 points, the same as yesterday, 65.80% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 26.20% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the price of rare earth in the rare earth market has risen sharply. In recent years, Myanmar has unilaterally banned the export of rare earth, which has led to a sharp decline in the import volume of domestic heavy rare earth. In addition, the south is a serious epidemic area, and rare earth Enterprises in the South have not fully resumed their work, the supply of domestic heavy rare earth has decreased, the contradiction between the supply and demand of domestic heavy rare earth is sharp, and the market price of heavy rare earth has risen sharply. In addition, in the near future, the demand for permanent magnet is average, and after the increase of rare earth supply in the north, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is slightly down, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is average, and the market price is slightly down. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Affected by the epidemic, transportation is limited to some extent, and the price trend of some rare earth products remains stable.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection inspection will not be reduced, coupled with the domestic heavy rare earth import is blocked, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the price of light rare earth will maintain a low level.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on February 25, the spot nickel price increased slightly, with the quotation of 102416.67 yuan / ton, 0.75% higher than the previous day, and 20.33% higher than the previous year. Today, Shanghai nickel opened at 102040 yuan, followed by a stronger price, closing at 102670 yuan, down 0.05%. LME3 ended 1.69% higher at $12670 at the end of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, nickel price has been in a downward trend, as stainless steel downstream enterprises are not fully back to work, stainless steel inventory remains high. The growth rate of new energy vehicles continued to decline, the negative growth of new energy vehicles affected the demand for nickel sulfate, and the production of ferronickel remained normal. However, Indonesia’s ban on mining and the reduction of supply in the Philippines in the rainy season have certain support for nickel price. Domestic nickel mine has a certain amount of reserves, and there is no signal of nickel mine shortage for the time being, and nickel mine price remains stable.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: affected by uncertainty factors such as global public health events, the global economic outlook is worrying, market risk aversion is still in the upper hand, and the downstream transaction situation is not good. However, with the start-up of factories around the world, the nickel supply is reduced, and the short-term upward pressure consolidation trend of nickel is expected.