Today (10.12) domestic cyclohexanone market, wait and see. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market today is 5850 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.95%. International oil prices fell, but the hurricane led to a halt in offshore crude oil production in the US Gulf, which restrained the decline. In terms of raw materials, Sinopec’s pure benzene price has been reduced by 150 yuan / ton, and 3300 yuan / ton has been implemented by all its refineries since October 9. In terms of downstream, Sinopec’s settlement price of caprolactam in September 2020 was 9700 yuan / T (liquid, high-quality products, self-made acceptance in six months), which was equal to the settlement price in August. Business community cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic market for cyclohexanone in the short term is mainly sorted out.

As of today (10.12), the market prices of cyclohexanone in various regions were summarized as follows:

Regional price

6000-6100 yuan / ton in East China, cash delivery

6100-6200 yuan / ton in South China

5750-5850 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

September is the traditional peak season of gas market, but the gas market has not gone out of the expected route. In September, natural gas fell first and then rose, while liquefied gas declined all the way. As can be seen from the figure, the gas market at the beginning of the month is mainly a small drop, and the trend of the gas market begins to deviate in the middle of the month, and the trend at the end of the month is obviously different. Natural gas and liquefied gas are both red in October, with natural gas rising by 2.92% and liquefied gas by 6.84%.

LNG rose 9.28% in September, and then rose after the holiday

Since the second half of the month, due to the relatively stable market situation, the shipment situation of some liquid plants has improved, and the demand has gradually increased. Moreover, after the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not great, the shipment situation has been improved, and the bad factors in the off-season demand are added Gradually turned light, the market trading improved, the market continued to rise, near the end of the month is climbing. With the decrease of temperature, the demand for urban fuel and vehicle is better, and some manufacturers have no pressure on inventory and have a good confidence in price.

During the holiday, traffic was blocked and LNG shipment was not smooth. After the holiday, the road transportation was restored and the downstream began to actively replenish. The terminal demand increased. In addition, the weather turned cool. The northern cities gradually entered the heating period in winter, which supported the upward trend of LNG price and the active adjustment of liquid price in many places. Moreover, due to the increase of feed gas price, the liquid plant was optimistic and the market gradually changed from The off-season turned into the peak season.

Jinjiu rebounds after falling short of LPG Festival

In September, the domestic LPG market in Shandong Province fell mainly. In the first ten days of the month, the main decline was obvious. International oil prices continued to fall, news negative market mentality. And downstream demand did not increase, mainly consumed inventory, the overall market trading atmosphere slightly light. In the early stage, the shutdown enterprises have been gradually restored, the market supply has increased, and the sales pressure has been increased. Down stream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, enter the market operation cautiously. Manufacturers did not improve shipment, inventory pressure gradually increased. Continuously reduce the price and give priority to shipment. The prices of some manufacturers have fallen below 3000 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the market rebounded twice but failed, and then continued to fall. The main reason for its rebound failure is terminal demand. In September, with the arrival of autumn, the temperature gradually turned cool, and the terminal market was expected to increase. However, the demand this year was slower than that in previous years. There was no obvious change in the downstream demand. It was mainly to consume more inventory. Most of them were cautious, and the enthusiasm for entering the market was general. Due to the poor delivery situation and the gradual accumulation of inventory, manufacturers were forced to lower the price to stimulate downstream market entry. With the arrival of the double festival, the demand for inventory and inventory at the end of the month has weakened one after another.

After the holiday, the price of LPG civil market rebounded. After the festival, the downstream started the replenishment mode, the enthusiasm of entering the market was good, the manufacturers’ shipment was smooth, and the inventory was mostly at a low level. On the 9th, the Shandong market of civil gas continued to rise, with a range of about 50 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of 3000-3030 yuan / ton. The sharp rise of international crude oil in the morning also brought a significant boost to the market, and the periphery was higher. The news was favorable to the market mentality, and the manufacturers’ mentality was firm, and the ex factory prices were raised successively.

In the future, the gas market may continue to rise

The natural gas market, with the return of the holiday, the road transportation is restored to be unobstructed, the downstream starts to actively replenish, the terminal demand increases, and the weather turns cool, northern cities gradually enter the winter heating period, which will support the LNG price upward. In the LPG market, the CP price rose slightly in October, and the international crude oil rebounded, which brought a certain boost to the market. At present, the downstream procurement is more active, and the production and sales are not under pressure. It is expected that the future gas market is still likely to rise.

Price trend:

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and strengthened in September, and most of the spot prices in the market rose. As of September 30, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 14950.00 yuan / ton, which was 1.01% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

As for styrene upstream of ABS, the domestic styrene price fluctuated in the first half of September, and the market was mainly horizontal in the last ten days. At present, although there are reports of a small increase in mainstream warehouses and social commodity stocks, the recent arrival of styrene in ports is less, and the domestic factory inventory is declining, and styrene digestion is expected to be better. The trend of crude oil in the far end of the cost end this month is general, and the upstream pure benzene is stable, which has support for styrene. Affected by the second wave of the epidemic, the demand of overseas markets was restrained to a certain extent, and the bulk commodities generally declined. The downstream consumption is fair, and the inquiry atmosphere has improved. The current inventory is at a historical high, which is a major factor in suppressing the styrene market. In the short term, it is expected that the styrene market will continue to face a stalemate.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, this month’s domestic market continued last month’s strong trend. In terms of cost side, the market in September was also good, with strong support for acrylonitrile. At the end of the month, supply and demand tend to be balanced. In addition, in terms of the operating rate of acrylic fiber industry, it is speculated that the future market may be difficult to maintain, and the downstream demand lacks of further positive promotion, which may lead to a supply-demand contradiction in the market after the Festival. Overseas market is due to reduced supply and the market has risen, there is a certain support for the domestic market. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will stabilize temporarily in the near future.

The domestic market of butadiene showed strong performance in September, the price was stable at the beginning of the month, the market momentum was obvious in the middle of the month, and the high consolidation in the last ten days. This month, the external market performance is strong, good domestic spot continued to rise. Downstream synthetic rubber market high volatility, butadiene support is acceptable. The overall tight supply pattern of domestic production enterprises remains unchanged, Sinopec’s supply price continues to rise, and the supply side slightly increases in the late ten days. Butadiene market rose rapidly in September, and the downstream demand was mainly replenishment on demand, so the procurement operation was more cautious. At present, businesses have a strong mentality and go with the market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be adjusted mainly in the near future.

In September, the domestic ABS market offer was generally high, and the spot price was relatively strong. Domestic ABS spot supply shortage situation has not improved, month low and double festival before the stock tide, downstream factories actively stock up operation, but the theater shortage. In addition, September has always been the traditional peak season, and the demand of the home appliance industry further pushed up the spot price. Overseas continued to be affected by public health events, crude oil and futures in September were not ideal, which had a certain suppression effect on ABS market and intensified the market wait-and-see mentality. At present, the mentality of merchants is temporarily stable, and the upsurge of replenishment before the double festival at the end of the month has led to a general increase in business quotations and a warming up of trading atmosphere.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: September ABS market high and strong, the trend is more positive. The prices of various brands are firm and some of them have gone up. Cost side of the upstream three material trend this month is also good, the cost side of ABS support. At present, ABS spot supply is still in short supply, and the downstream demand has increased. Business delivery resistance reduced, the pre Festival trading atmosphere is better, low-cost supply is difficult to find. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be high in the near future.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of September 30, the average price of domestic 180 CST fuel oil in mainstream market was 3612.50 yuan / ton, down 2.69% from 3712.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On September 30, the fuel oil commodity index was 73.16, down 36.88% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 58.77% higher than 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysis of influencing factors

Fuel stocks increased and prices fell. Domestic fuel oil prices fell in a weak trend this month, with a light turnover. The mainstream price at the end of the month was about 3612 yuan / ton. On September 29, the spot price of Zhoushan port fuel oil (high sulfur 380cst) was 295 USD / T, which was 8.24% lower than 321.5 USD / T at the beginning of the month. According to data released by the Singapore Enterprise Development Council (ESG), Singapore’s stock of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, surged by 2.232 million barrels in the week ending September 23, to a five week high of 23.633 million barrels.

The epidemic situation in foreign countries is more serious, the overall demand is weak, the crude oil price is falling, and the cost side is unfavorable to the fuel price. According to the monitoring of business agency, WTI crude oil of the United States was 42.61 US dollars / barrel at the beginning of the month and 39.29 US dollars / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly rise and fall of – 7.79%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month was 45.28 dollars / barrel, at the end of the month was 41.56 dollars / barrel, with a monthly rise and fall of – 8.22%. On September 25, local time, Stella kyriakidis, EU health commissioner, warned that the epidemic situation in some countries of the EU was worse than that in March, and the epidemic situation in Europe has become very serious again. In the early stage, the OPEC + production reduction agreement was not complete, and the crude oil supply surface pressure was large. US crude oil inventories fell by 831000 barrels to 494.4 million barrels in the week of September 25.

Future forecast

Energy analysts of the business agency believe that the overall market downturn, limited terminal demand, light transactions, coupled with the recent decline in international crude oil prices, affected by the cost and supply-demand relationship, it is expected that the fuel oil market will continue to operate in a weak position in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China on September 30 was 850.00 yuan / ton, which was 7.14% lower than 793.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 46.55% higher than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the sulfur market was on the rise as a whole, with obvious support from port cargo holders. The sulfur market continued to rise. Domestic sulfur manufacturers made price adjustments based on the sales situation, and the price trend rose steadily in the month. As of the 30th, the quotations of solid sulfur and liquid sulfur in East China are 860-1060 yuan / ton, 760-900 yuan / ton, 710-800 yuan / ton and 660-720 yuan / ton in North China, 840-850 yuan / ton in Shandong.

At present, the downstream sulfuric acid market is trading well. The shipment of sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong is stable, and the inventory of acid enterprises is low. The quotation of sulfuric acid rises slightly, and the double festival is approaching. The manufacturers prepare more goods, and the market after the festival is mainly organized and operated. In terms of phosphate fertilizer, export and domestic demand are stable, enterprises are able to move goods smoothly, and the future market is stable temporarily.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business club, the enthusiasm of downstream factories and traders in the sulfur market is not high, the internal and external markets are lack of substantive information guidance, and the buyers and sellers are mainly on the wait-and-see manner. In addition, the port side has a clear attitude to support the market. It is expected that the sulfur market or consolidation operation will be carried out in the later stage, so as to watch the downstream market trend.