According to statistics, the price trend of domestic p-xylene factory was temporarily stable this week, with an average price of 4600 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 4600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.3%.

The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 ton new unit is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, fuhaichuang plant is on the first line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is running normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant is running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit is operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is running stably The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. has started a production line. Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%, and the supply of PX goods is normal in Asia. This week, the price trend of PX external market is mainly volatile. As of the end of the week, the closing prices of PX market in Asia are 531-533 USD / T FOB Korea and 549-551 USD / T CFR China. This week, the external price of PX has not changed much. More than 40% of domestic products need to be imported, and the closing price of PX external market is shocked Swing to the domestic market to bring a certain support impact, domestic PX market price trend temporarily stable.

The U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell sharply this week. As of the 10th, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was at $38.05/barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures market was mainly due to the impact of the weak demand caused by the epidemic situation, which was expected to continue to enlarge. According to related news, analysis of the long Labor Day weekend in the United States shows that new coronavirus infections have increased in 22 of the 50 states in the United States. And in India and the United Kingdom, the number of new infections is growing. The global epidemic situation is still serious, and due to the economic start-up in some countries, the relaxation or cancellation of restrictive measures has led to the continuous spread of the virus. People’s concern that the rebound of the epidemic may weaken the global economic recovery has increased, and then hit the demand for fuel. The crude oil price trend declined, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend temporarily stabilized.

This week, the price trend of downstream PTA market dropped sharply. As of the end of the weekend, the PTA Market in East China had been discussed to be around 3400-3500 yuan. Recently, the operating load of PTA industry was 87%. The restart of its own device, the fall of oil price and the recovery of demand were limited. The superposition of negative factors led to the fall of PTA price. Downstream polyester market is weak, production and sales are light. Raw materials fell with crude oil, polyester Market wait-and-see atmosphere increased, demand weakened. Inventory continued to rise, polyester market overall inventory concentrated in 33-41 days; specific products, POY inventory to 12-18 days, FDY inventory to 23-35 days, and DTY inventory to 31-44 days. Factory prices are stable and weak, and some factories are willing to negotiate on a volume basis. The downstream market is not good. PX price trend is Friday.

On the whole, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is not stable, and the terminal demand is poor. For upstream Px, on-demand procurement is the main factor, and the price trend of PX market is stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business agency, thinks that the trend of crude oil price has dropped in recent years, but the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is general, PTA market price is falling, and domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that PX market price will maintain about 4600 yuan / ton next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, at present, the market of chloroform in Shandong is weak and stable. As of September 10, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 1800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.76% compared with 1910 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 4.05% over the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Shandong Jinling 440000 T / a Dawang plant 50%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 80%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

At present, the trichloromethane market in Shandong is in a weak and stable state. Although the price of liquid chlorine for raw materials is high recently, the enthusiasm for receiving orders in the downstream market is still not good, and the market transaction situation is light, and the owners are mainly on the wait-and-see manner. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 1800 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, methanol market is affected by enterprise maintenance and downstream demand, and favorable factors still exist in the short term. Traders have a good bullish attitude, at present, about 1802 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is high and firm, and the enterprise’s shipment is smooth. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 800-1000 yuan / ton.

The peak season of refrigerant downstream market has passed, the market demand is poor, and the goods are in general. The lower reaches have limited acceptance of high price refrigerants, so they are cautious to watch the market, and the enthusiasm for pursuing rising is not high; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry has started smoothly, and there is insufficient support for chloroform.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the chloroform market in Shandong is in a weak and stable state, and the downstream market is in a weak position after entering the off-season, and some enterprises are in a state of loss due to the high cost. It is expected that the chloroform market will run stably in a short period of time. Pay attention to the development of the cost side.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 8, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 17200 yuan / ton. Compared with September 1, the average price was increased by 340 yuan / ton, or 1.98%. Compared with August 1, the average price was increased by 600 yuan / ton, or 3.61%.

At the beginning of September, the shipment was smooth, and the trend of silicone DMC was positive

At the end of August, the market of silicone DMC has been rising. In September, the rise of raw material silicon metal gave strong support to silicone DMC. Silicone DMC continued to rise with strong power, good downstream demand, positive attitude of the industry, obvious mood of buying up and not buying down, increased stock and replenishment, smooth transmission of upstream and downstream supply and demand, and the market price continued to rise. As of August 8, the highest price increase of the factory has been nearly 900 yuan / ton compared with the end of August. The low-end quotation has risen to 16900 yuan / ton, with a large increase. The high-end quotation is 17500 yuan / ton, with a small increase. At present, the distance between high-end and low-end quotations in the silicone DMC market has been greatly narrowed, and the mainstream quotation reference is around 16900-17500 yuan / ton. At present, I heard that in September, in addition to the basic maintenance plan of several factories, most factories kept normal operation, and the operating rate was still around the ninth floor, and the overall supply was relatively high.

According to the business agency, the following is the DMC price and the start-up situation of some domestic silicone enterprises (for reference only)

Company name: total capacity of silicone plant operation status price remarks

Hesheng silicon 3.58 million tons / year, no offer for the time being, the plant runs smoothly, and the purified water is delivered to

Hubei Xingfa 320000 T / a 17300 yuan / T plant in normal operation

Zhejiang Zhongtian 120000 tons / year, no offer for the moment, stable operation of the plant, water purification tax included

Shandong Jinling 150000 tons / year 17500 yuan / ton, there is a maintenance plan in September, and the purified water will be delivered in cash

Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd., 80000 tons / year, 16900 yuan / ton, normal operation of the plant, and cash delivery of purified water

Inner Mongolia Hengye Cheng 240000 / T 17500 yuan / T unit load 80% purified water tax included

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd., 340000 / T, 17200 yuan / T, normal operation, purified water tax included

On the upstream side, from the beginning of September, the overall stable operation of the metal silicon market was given priority to, until the 7th, the price of metal silicon (441) rose slightly. According to the data of the business agency, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) on September 7 was 11233.33 yuan / ton, up 0.22% compared with the average price of 11208.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1). The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 10700-10800 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is 11000-11100 yuan / ton, that of Kunming is 10900-11000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai is 11800-12000 yuan / ton, that of Tianjin port is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, and that of Huangpu port is 11200-11400 yuan / ton 。 At present, Sichuan silicon plant is gradually resuming production, and the supply and demand are relatively stable.

Overall market preference for DMC after the trend or continue to rise

In terms of the current market situation, the overall trend of silicone DMC market is preferred. Although the market demand in recent two days has no advantage at the beginning of the month, the overall market demand is still above the rigid demand. In addition, many manufacturers are not making offers and limiting sales and other factors continue to push up the market price. The monomer factory has a compact list. It is expected that the silicone DMC market will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of September 4, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 3712.5 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.34% from the beginning of the week.

On September 4, the fuel oil commodity index was 75.19, flat with yesterday, down 35.13% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 63.17% higher than 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Domestic marine demand and power generation demand still have certain support for fuel oil 180CST, with strong market support and firm business offer. According to the business agency, as of September 4, the price of fuel oil 180CST in Ningbo was 3750 yuan / ton; that of 120 CST fuel oil was 3800 yuan / ton; that of Shanghai area was 3700 yuan / ton; that of 120 CST was 3700 yuan / ton The price of low sulfur is 3800 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price remained around $40 / barrel, supporting fuel oil. According to the monitoring of business agency, the closing price of WTI crude oil contract No. 10 was USD 39.51/barrel on the 4th day and Brent crude oil contract No. 11 was closed at USD 42.35/barrel on the 4th day.

Singapore’s fuel inventory dropped significantly compared with the previous week, driving the atmosphere of domestic fuel prices. According to the latest data released by ies, the presence of fuel oil depots in Singapore recorded 22.195 million barrels in the week ending September 2, down 936000 barrels or 14% from the previous week. The current inventory basically fell back to the 5-year average level

Aftermarket forecast: the energy analysts of the business agency believe that due to the lower electricity demand in the later period and the sharp drop of crude oil price over the weekend, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be lower in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China on September 4 was 3900 yuan / ton, an increase of 67 yuan / ton or 1.74% over last week, according to business agency data.

On September 3, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3900 yuan / ton, up 135 yuan / ton or 3.59% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of September 3, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1376500 tons, an increase of 22100 tons or 1.63% compared with last Thursday, and 57600 tons or 4.37% higher than that of Monday.

In terms of shipment, the average daily shipment of Zhangjiagang and Taicang all dropped significantly this week, among which the daily average shipment of Zhangjiagang was 6600 tons, and that of Taicang was 5700 tons.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 55%, and that of polyester is about 89%.

In terms of units, the overhaul of Zhongyan hongsifang ethylene glycol plant with an annual output of 300000 tons is nearing the end, and it is planned to restart around September 12; the 700 thousand ton ethylene glycol unit of Lotte in the United States has been damaged by the hurricane, so the shutdown time of the unit has been extended, and the restart time has not been determined.

3、 Analysis and prediction

This week due to poor shipment, so in a few consecutive weeks after the inventory, inventory rose again. Recently, there are few maintenance plans for domestic plants, and many new units are put into operation. However, due to the maintenance of downstream polyester, the expected output will be less than the previous stage. If the demand side can not be improved enough, the price of ethylene glycol will be difficult to get strong support.