1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 12075 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 11925 yuan / ton, down 1.24% in the week, down 9.32% month on month and 20.23% year on year.
2、 Market analysis
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Product: the market price of aggregate MDI fell continuously this week. As of Thursday (3.12) this week, the market price has stopped falling and stabilized, but there are also some individual phenomena of low price shipment. The weekly guidance price manufacturer, keschuang, has a stable and stable quotation attitude; the guidance price of East Cao Ruian has dropped by 700 yuan / ton to 11300 yuan / ton, with a falling mentality. Other manufacturers have not made a statement for the moment, and each manufacturer has different mentality. It is generally understood that the supplier’s factory load is temporarily kept at low load, and the inventory pressure has not been completely relieved. Most of the traders keep positive shipment, the quotation is low, and some agents have great stock and capital pressure. This week’s continuous decline in the price price led to the weak atmosphere of the downstream operators’ purchase inquiry at the beginning of the week. With the slow down of the price drop in the middle of the week, the downstream terminals began to pick up goods. Active inquiry, continuous small order replenishment oriented, the inquiry atmosphere may gradually improve.
On the aspect of enterprises, the market learned that the guiding price of MDI polymerization of an enterprise in Ruian, Zhejiang Province, was 11300 yuan / ton this week, down 700 yuan / ton compared with last week’s quotation; the quotation of MDI polymerization of Shanghai Kesi for dealers this week was 12300 yuan / ton, stable compared with last week’s quotation.
Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: in the week, the market of pure benzene in Shandong Province fell. At the beginning of the week, the price of refineries remained firm due to low inventory. However, crude oil plummeted, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene significantly reduced from 600 yuan / ton to 4550 yuan / ton, the mentality of the operators was poor, and downstream enterprises obviously resisted the high price of pure benzene; moreover, due to the impact of low price of hydrobenzene and northeast supply, there were few transactions of refined benzene, and the price dropped to 4400-4500 yuan / ton.
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Aniline: domestic aniline market fell in the week. Crude oil plummeted, driving the pure benzene market down. Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was reduced by 600 yuan / ton to 4550 yuan / ton, with a wide range of costs weakening and poor support for aniline. In Shandong market of aniline, Jinling restarted a 100000 ton aniline plant and the market supply increased. Huatai has a high load, and the inventory keeps accumulating. I heard that the actual shipment is lower than the offer. In the East China market, due to the impact of Wanhua’s low price supply, East China enterprises generally ship goods. Most of the downstream factories and traders are pessimistic about aniline’s aftermarket mentality and take the goods carefully. In order to promote the shipment, the price of aniline factory keeps falling.
3、 Future forecast
Business Club view: under the supply and demand game, the business club aggregate MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market price or maintain range volatility, and the price may rebound at any time.
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