According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market rose steadily in the second week of November, and it was operating positively. Spot prices of various brands have increased. As of November 13, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8316.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene market remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half of October. Since November 1, there has been a correction in prices. Last week, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price dropped slightly, then recovered and stabilized, with 6868.27 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; 6843.73 yuan / ton on Tuesday; and 6891.91 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.34% and a weekly amplitude of 0.70%. On the whole, the current turnover of propylene market is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still relatively ideal. The crude oil price is fair, and the downstream market is more favorable, which can achieve certain support. Moreover, the propylene price has a large decline in the early stage, and has a certain rise last week. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may start to stabilize in the near future.

The current high level consolidation of propylene has certain support for the cost side of PP. Business agency monitoring data show that last week PP (drawing) market performance is more stable. The downstream demand is fair, and there is also support for the spot price. In terms of inventory, at the end of the superposition of early November, petrochemicals inventory had a large accumulation beyond expectations, and the two oil inventories increased rapidly. Driven by the rise of futures last week, the market transaction atmosphere turned warm and the inventory returned to the low level smoothly. As some brands are still tight spot, there is support in the market. In the near future, PP may continue the trend of positive consolidation.

According to the monitoring data of domestic fiber traders (z833.30t) as of November, the price of domestic fiber manufacturers was about 33.33 yuan. The average price was up 60.0% from the beginning of the week. Last week, the market of fiber and drawing materials was synchronous, showing a stable trend of consolidation. Due to the large price increase in the early stage, the current downstream mentality tends to be cautious. However, the contradiction between supply and demand of polyolefins has not been revealed due to the consumption peak of the double 11 Shopping Festival. In addition, PP futures rose a lot, PP (fiber) is expected to continue to rise in the near future.

PP melt blown material market recent finishing mainly, domestic PP melt blown material market spot price is still reduced. According to the quotation data received by some enterprises, at present, the products of various quality grades of meltblown materials at home and abroad have been reduced slightly. The reference quotation of y1500 of Maoming Petrochemical Company is 10900 yuan / ton, and that of ExxonMobil 1500 melt index is about 11700 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the demand has increased slightly in the near future. The trend of the second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, many countries announced to close the city again, the non-woven fabric in the application of medical protection is sought after again, the demand is expected to rise, and the production capacity of China is expected. However, the profits of domestic meltblown cloth and material manufacturing market are seriously diluted, and it is expected that the decline of melt blown materials will be narrowed due to the influence of expanding demand in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: in the second week of November, the domestic PP spot market is generally stable. The upstream propylene market stopped falling and turned warm, and the price callback supported the PP cost side. PP (drawing) is not in danger of accumulation, and the price is stable. PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt blown) decline has a slowing trend. Recently, the consumption of Shopping Festival stimulated the domestic market, and PP futures rose sharply, which led to the spot price adjustment together. Downstream factory stock purchase just need to operate, wait-and-see atmosphere gradually rises, trading volume is not seen. PP spot is expected to continue to strengthen in the near future.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton for 50% powder and 2650 yuan / ton for 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder. From the start-up of potassium sulfate plant, the operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate plant continued to be high, basically maintained at the level of about 70-80%. Because the production capacity of resource-based potassium sulfate plants is relatively limited, and most of them have been sold in advance, the next four quarters mainly focus on the early order shipment and tobacco fertilizer supply. From the traditional market, after the end of autumn and before the start of winter, most of the potassium sulfate plants are in the state of increasing inventory in the off-season. However, this year, under the condition that the manufacturers continue to flexibly receive orders, the inventory in large factories is at a low level, so the price of potassium sulfate also has the conditions for a small increase.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulphate analyst of business club thinks: at present, the price of potassium chloride has been at a relatively high level, and potassium sulfate began to callback after a period of trial. Under the support of cost, it is expected that the price of potassium sulfate will rise slightly on the basis of stable consumption in the future.

The concentration of phenol plant increased by 250-350 yuan / ton, and the domestic mainstream factory offer was 5900-6000 yuan / ton. In the morning, the market offer remained flat with the factory, and then the downstream inquiry increased and the negotiation went up further, and the offer gradually exceeded 6000 yuan / ton. As of the end of the 11th, the mainstream offer for petrochemical plants across the country was 5900-6000 yuan / ton. Among them, the offer of East China market is 6050 yuan / ton, that of Shandong and surrounding areas of Yanshan is 5900-6000 yuan / ton, and that of South China is 6100 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of phenol average price in national market

Trend chart of phenol commodity index in East China (factory offer)

From the upstream point of view, the price of raw material pure benzene rose sharply, which was mainly driven by the sharp rise of styrene. Under the influence of the sharp rise of styrene price in the downstream of pure benzene, pure benzene opened at a high level, and the negotiation directly charged 4000 yuan / ton. Raw material propylene also showed a steady trend, with the mainstream transaction at 6800 yuan / ton. On November, the price of propylene in most regions remained stable. According to the price chart of the business association, since November, it has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton, and the current market turnover is between 6700-7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment situation of the manufacturer is better than that in the earlier stage. And propylene experienced a sharp decline in the last month, the short-term propene gradually warming to become the main tone.

From the downstream demand side, the bisphenol a market entered November with a sharp rise. The main driving force of phenol upward was also driven by the bisphenol a market. In terms of factories, the mainstream offer has risen to 15500-16500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiations in East China and North China are also around 16400 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of goods in the market is limited, there is no pressure on the inventory, and the attitude of the shippers is positive. Although it is difficult to digest the downstream market after the price rise, the transaction price of some rigid demand markets is obviously high, and the market low price is hard to find.

From the perspective of business agencies, with the help of the increase of the factory offer, the attitude of the shippers is getting better and pushing up actively. The enthusiasm of the downstream just needs to participate is fair. In the short term, the overall negotiation space is expected to be 6100 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1933 yuan / ton on November 1, 1966 yuan / ton on November 10, and the price rose by 1.72% in the first ten days of November.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 1 was 2356 yuan / ton, and that on November 10 was 2356 yuan / ton. The price remained stable in the first ten days of November.

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of November, the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1950-2000 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintained stable operation, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at about 1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2000 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

In the first ten days of November, the market of diammonium phosphate was stable. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2300-2350 yuan / ton, that of 64% diammonium in Shandong Province is 2300-2350 yuan / ton, that of 64% diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Anhui Province is 2300-2450 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2500 yuan / ton.

Since the beginning of November, the domestic market of raw material phosphate ore has been running steadily. During this period, it was heard that some mining enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi intend to increase the ex factory quotation of phosphate ore, but due to the lack of new orders in the short term, it has not been implemented on the spot. At present, the price of high-end small enterprises in Guizhou has been raised by 10 yuan / day, and the price of some high-end phosphate ores has been raised by 10 yuan / day.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the current supply of monoammonium phosphate is declining, more pursuit of orders, prices continue to rise. DAP mainly sends export orders and downstream compound fertilizers are purchased on demand. It is expected that in the short term, monoammonium will continue to maintain the upward trend, and diammonium will increase steadily or slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the big data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on November 8 was 5000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, up 2.74% month on month, 6.54% lower than the beginning of the year, and 6.25% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market was stable and small movements, with sporadic and minor increases. After being strongly supported by the cost side in the early stage, the business offers continued to rise, and the trading center shifted upward. Taking Hubei Xingfa group as an example, it is now up to 4900 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 100 yuan. Other regions still have bullish expectations, and the market center of gravity begins to move up. At present, the spot price of raw material yellow phosphorus market is slightly tense, and the manufacturers intend to support the price. However, the downstream demand is not followed up enough, the transaction enthusiasm is not high, and most manufacturers are in a wait-and-see state. In the short term, the market of phosphoric acid is slightly deadlocked. At present, the quotations of mainstream manufacturers refer to 4700-5600 yuan / ton, slightly rising.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 8, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5000 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4850-5400 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the transaction was stable; the quotation in Beijing was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was about 4900-5050 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Tianjin, the price was 5600 yuan The price is stable for the time being; the price in Jiangsu Province is about 4800 yuan / ton, rising steadily. The price in Guangxi is about 5600 yuan / ton, and the price is rising steadily.

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market is relatively strong, manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and the spot market of yellow phosphorus is slightly tense. Be careful when you take the goods downstream. With the increase of electricity price, manufacturers intend to support the price. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will increase slightly in the short term.

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content in East China: 85% Nov 6 5380-5400

Phosphoric acid content in Southwest China: 85%, November 6, 4850-4890

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

3、 Future forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of chemical branch of business society believe that the spot price of raw material yellow phosphorus market is slightly tense, and the manufacturers intend to raise the price. However, the downstream demand of phosphoric acid is not followed up, and the transaction enthusiasm is not high, and most of the operators are on the wait-and-see state. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will stabilize temporarily in the short term, and the future market may still be expected to rise with the narrow fluctuation of cost.