According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market rose steadily in the second week of November, and it was operating positively. Spot prices of various brands have increased. As of November 13, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8316.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Cause analysis
PP upstream propylene market remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half of October. Since November 1, there has been a correction in prices. Last week, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price dropped slightly, then recovered and stabilized, with 6868.27 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; 6843.73 yuan / ton on Tuesday; and 6891.91 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.34% and a weekly amplitude of 0.70%. On the whole, the current turnover of propylene market is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still relatively ideal. The crude oil price is fair, and the downstream market is more favorable, which can achieve certain support. Moreover, the propylene price has a large decline in the early stage, and has a certain rise last week. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may start to stabilize in the near future.
The current high level consolidation of propylene has certain support for the cost side of PP. Business agency monitoring data show that last week PP (drawing) market performance is more stable. The downstream demand is fair, and there is also support for the spot price. In terms of inventory, at the end of the superposition of early November, petrochemicals inventory had a large accumulation beyond expectations, and the two oil inventories increased rapidly. Driven by the rise of futures last week, the market transaction atmosphere turned warm and the inventory returned to the low level smoothly. As some brands are still tight spot, there is support in the market. In the near future, PP may continue the trend of positive consolidation.
According to the monitoring data of domestic fiber traders (z833.30t) as of November, the price of domestic fiber manufacturers was about 33.33 yuan. The average price was up 60.0% from the beginning of the week. Last week, the market of fiber and drawing materials was synchronous, showing a stable trend of consolidation. Due to the large price increase in the early stage, the current downstream mentality tends to be cautious. However, the contradiction between supply and demand of polyolefins has not been revealed due to the consumption peak of the double 11 Shopping Festival. In addition, PP futures rose a lot, PP (fiber) is expected to continue to rise in the near future.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
PP melt blown material market recent finishing mainly, domestic PP melt blown material market spot price is still reduced. According to the quotation data received by some enterprises, at present, the products of various quality grades of meltblown materials at home and abroad have been reduced slightly. The reference quotation of y1500 of Maoming Petrochemical Company is 10900 yuan / ton, and that of ExxonMobil 1500 melt index is about 11700 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the demand has increased slightly in the near future. The trend of the second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, many countries announced to close the city again, the non-woven fabric in the application of medical protection is sought after again, the demand is expected to rise, and the production capacity of China is expected. However, the profits of domestic meltblown cloth and material manufacturing market are seriously diluted, and it is expected that the decline of melt blown materials will be narrowed due to the influence of expanding demand in the near future.
Future forecast
PP business agency analysts believe: in the second week of November, the domestic PP spot market is generally stable. The upstream propylene market stopped falling and turned warm, and the price callback supported the PP cost side. PP (drawing) is not in danger of accumulation, and the price is stable. PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt blown) decline has a slowing trend. Recently, the consumption of Shopping Festival stimulated the domestic market, and PP futures rose sharply, which led to the spot price adjustment together. Downstream factory stock purchase just need to operate, wait-and-see atmosphere gradually rises, trading volume is not seen. PP spot is expected to continue to strengthen in the near future.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |