1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China on September 30 was 850.00 yuan / ton, which was 7.14% lower than 793.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 46.55% higher than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the sulfur market was on the rise as a whole, with obvious support from port cargo holders. The sulfur market continued to rise. Domestic sulfur manufacturers made price adjustments based on the sales situation, and the price trend rose steadily in the month. As of the 30th, the quotations of solid sulfur and liquid sulfur in East China are 860-1060 yuan / ton, 760-900 yuan / ton, 710-800 yuan / ton and 660-720 yuan / ton in North China, 840-850 yuan / ton in Shandong.

At present, the downstream sulfuric acid market is trading well. The shipment of sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong is stable, and the inventory of acid enterprises is low. The quotation of sulfuric acid rises slightly, and the double festival is approaching. The manufacturers prepare more goods, and the market after the festival is mainly organized and operated. In terms of phosphate fertilizer, export and domestic demand are stable, enterprises are able to move goods smoothly, and the future market is stable temporarily.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business club, the enthusiasm of downstream factories and traders in the sulfur market is not high, the internal and external markets are lack of substantive information guidance, and the buyers and sellers are mainly on the wait-and-see manner. In addition, the port side has a clear attitude to support the market. It is expected that the sulfur market or consolidation operation will be carried out in the later stage, so as to watch the downstream market trend.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt market fluctuated in September, and the cobalt price rose and fell suddenly. In September, the cobalt price experienced “five rises and four falls”. The cobalt price was adjusted 15 times, and the overall cobalt price fluctuated slightly. It is rare for the cobalt price to adjust so frequently, which can be called the most “turbulent” in history. As of September 29, the cobalt price was 274666.66 yuan / ton, down 1.26% from 278166.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Why does cobalt price change so frequently? What is the future market of cobalt Market?

Domestic production and marketing of new energy vehicles

According to the data of CAAC, in August 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 106000 and 109000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 6.0% and 11.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.7% and 25.8%; from January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 602000 and 596000, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% and 26.4%. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both rose sharply on a month on month basis, and the market of new energy vehicles rose significantly. It is expected that the demand for cobalt in the future will recover, which is good for the cobalt market.

Domestic mobile phone market

According to the statistics of China Academy of communications and communications, in August 2020, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 26.907 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%; from January to August, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market was 202 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%. The production and sales of mobile phone market fell sharply, and the demand for cobalt Market decreased significantly, which was negative for cobalt market.

Import data of cobalt raw materials

According to the data of Customs website, in August 2020, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 9300 tons of metal tons, with a month on month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 3%. From January to August 2020, China’s total imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 54500 tons of metal tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year. The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased, the domestic cobalt market supply increased, the domestic cobalt supply exceeded demand, and the market situation of cobalt market was negative.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the cobalt market experienced the most “turbulent” month in September, and the price of cobalt was adjusted several times. The performance of cobalt market is closely related to the recent performance of both supply and demand sides of cobalt market.

In terms of demand, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are up, which is good for the rising demand of cobalt market. At the same time, the sharp decline of mobile phone sales shows that the overall demand of cobalt market is still seriously declining. Although mobile phone sales have picked up, the overall demand of cobalt market is insufficient, and the cobalt market has not sustained rising support. The national reserve is the biggest positive for cobalt Market in September, but the collection and storage did not bring the expected market boost Uncertainty has limited the upside of the cobalt market. In terms of overall demand, the cobalt market is both positive and negative.

In terms of supply, domestic imports of cobalt raw materials increased, and the supply of cobalt market increased. In the case of insufficient demand, the increase in supply led to the oversupply of supply. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the supply risk of cobalt ore in DRC has always been the focus of the market. Recently, there have been many disturbances in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Although the turmoil is not enough to have a fatal impact on the political situation, it also increases the supply risk of cobalt Market and cobalt ore supply All kinds of hidden costs of Yingshang increased, and the pressure of rising price of cobalt ore increased. In terms of overall supply, the cobalt market is both positive and negative.

On the whole, in September, the supply and demand sides of the cobalt market were entangled with each other, and the good and bad were mixed. There was no decisive factor in the cobalt market to promote the rise or fall of cobalt price. In the long run, with the recovery of the global economy, the cobalt market is bound to rise. However, the recent performance of the cobalt market shows that it is difficult for the cobalt market to have a decisive force to change the cobalt Market in the short term, and the cobalt market may spend a dull year.

At the beginning of the week, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions, while Hebei continued to maintain the steady state last week. The price of Shandong region rose for two consecutive days. At present, whether the market can stabilize still remains to be observed. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong increased by about 200 yuan, with a curve percentage of 1.08%, and the mainstream market quotation was 2850-3100 yuan / ton.

After a short period of decline in the middle of September, the market quotation of liquid ammonia in Shandong has stabilized slightly, and the price at the end of the month has returned to the upward channel again. Before that, the major plants were still in the maintenance period, the liquid ammonia shipment increased significantly, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure gradually increased, and the enterprise’s quotation was mainly based on the corresponding profit margin. Recently, the shipment of liquid ammonia from Shandong manufacturers has slowed down significantly, mainly for self use, and there is a pre holiday stock behavior in the downstream, which has stimulated the continuous upward trend of market price.

In other regions, the big is stable and the small is moving. Hebei has been following the trend of Shandong before. However, although the price in Shandong has risen recently, the shipment volume is not large and the flow between regions is not much. In addition, most of the liquid ammonia plants in Hebei are stable, and the supply of goods is normal and abundant. Therefore, the prices in this region continue to be stable and the prices have not changed greatly. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. The amount of liquid ammonia in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, with the current price of 2950-3100 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business agency believes that at the beginning of the week, most of the liquid ammonia Market stabilized. In the whole month, the liquid ammonia market maintained a narrow range adjustment, and the supply and demand fundamentals were balanced. It is expected that the domestic ammonia volume will remain moderate before the double festival. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will still maintain the range consolidation in the near future. It is not ruled out that the trend of various regions after the festival or some differentiation will occur, and the market is mainly affected by large factories The impact is obvious. In the later stage, there may still be maintenance of the devices in Shandong area. After the superposition of festivals, the market may need to consume a part of the goods prepared before the festival, and the price may be impacted to a certain extent. On the demand side, the downstream demand is rigid and stable. At present, the downstream fertilizer market is at the end of the autumn fertilizer production and sales season. The downstream demand may shrink in the later stage, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage. Considering comprehensively, liquid ammonia may be near strong and far weak.

1、 Price trend

This week, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China is temporarily stable, with an offer of 282.50 yuan / ton. Overall, the market of hydrochloric acid remained stable this week, with the commodity index of hydrochloric acid on September 18 at 74.34.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation is stable temporarily, the overall market is general. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 230 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is quoted at 300 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 120 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream silica market is general, and the market price of ammonium chloride gradually drops, which has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The overall problem of hydrochloric acid delivery is still difficult in the whole week.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine is general, while the downstream silica and ammonium chloride are mainly purchased on demand. Business agency analysts believe that hydrochloric acid recent low consolidation.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of polyester filament maintained a downward trend in the first half of this week, and stabilized in the second half week. Among them, the price of polyester POY slightly recovered. As of September 25, the average market price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) was 5156 yuan / ton, which was flat on a week-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 34.12%.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market from September 18 to 25, unit: yuan / ton

On September 18, 2020 to September 25, 2020, the products were up and down on a weekly basis

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5156 5156 0.00% – 34.12%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5581 5565 – 0.30% – 29.69%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6613 6576 – 0.57% – 29.53%

In the traditional sales peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the polyester factory is in a disadvantageous situation of loss and high inventory, and the weak terminal demand leads to the insufficient quality of “Jinjiu”. The overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 35-43 days, of which POY inventory is 13-17 days, FDY inventory is around 24-35 days, and DTY inventory is about 32-43 days. Near the National Day holiday, the performance of the demand side began to improve in the second half of the week. The average production and sales of major polyester factories were 110% – 120%, and the production and sales of some better factories could reach 300%. In terms of price, polyester POY of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, of which 150D / 48F) was quoted at 5000-5250 yuan / ton.

In the raw material market, crude oil prices rose slightly, but the spot supply of PTA was still loose, the buying and selling atmosphere was flat, and the price dropped slightly. As of September 25, the average market price was 3401 yuan / ton, down 2.93% on a week-on-month basis, and 33.93% year-on-year. In terms of equipment, 2.2 million tons of Ningbo Yisheng were discharged in the evening of September 17, and 1.4 million tons of Huabin Petrochemical were restored to full load on September 21, and the operating rate increased to above 92%. Zhuhai BP 2.35 million tons PTA plant was shut down in the evening of September 23, and the start-up dropped slightly to 87%. Overall, the supply is still loose, and the inventory is still maintained at a high level of about 4 million tons, and PTA supply pressure is still large in the short term.

Recently, the number of buyers from all over the home textile market of China Light and textile city has increased. The number of orders for online live broadcast counterpart customers has increased. Curtain cloth and decorative cloth continue to interact with each other. The marketing trend of decorative home furnishing fabric with polyester filament as the main raw material is quite optimistic, and the transaction continues to be pushed up. Most downstream enterprises began to increase orders in mid August, autumn and winter. Especially affected by the purchasing action before the National Day festival, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms gradually increased to over 74%. Some downstream polyester factories raised prices to support the market, but the follow-up of downstream orders was insufficient, and the overall order quantity was lower than in previous years.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that at the end of the month, PTA plant restart and maintenance coexist in the raw material market. Next week, hailun Petrochemical’s 1.2-million-ton PTA plant will be discharged, and Hanbang’s 2.2-million-ton unit is scheduled to be overhauled. In general, the oversupply leads the market, so the cost side is weak. There is still a demand for replenishment in the downstream, but under the pressure of funds, the ability to follow up orders continuously is insufficient, and the industry is mostly pessimistic. Therefore, it is expected that the upward power of short-term polyester filament price is limited.