1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on June 30 was 5833.33 yuan / ton, down 5.66% from 61833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 19.86% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the phosphoric acid market rose first and then declined, and then the price gradually fell, with a decline of more than 5% in the whole month. In June, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus was as high as around 25000 yuan / ton. Supported by the cost, the phosphoric acid market kept pace with the rise, and the quotations of some enterprises were as high as 7000 yuan / ton. Since the middle of the year, with the rising of raw material yellow phosphorus enterprises, the high price has come down to below 20000 yuan / ton, and the phosphoric acid market has also gone down. But the wait-and-see attitude has not decreased. At present, the price is mostly in the range of 5500-6500 yuan / ton, Mainly for old customers. Near the end of the month, the security inspection is more strict, or affect the trading atmosphere in some areas, and the price continues to weaken. According to the monitoring of business agency, the quotation in Sichuan is 5500-5700 yuan / ton, in Yunnan is 6400-6700 yuan / ton, in Hubei is 5900-6500 yuan / ton, in Tianjin is 6200 yuan / ton, in Jiangsu is 6000-6600 yuan / ton, in Shandong is 5600-5800 yuan / ton, and the price of phosphoric acid in various places is gradually reduced.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 30, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas in China was around 530 yuan / ton, which was increased by 20 yuan / ton or 3.92% compared with the price on June 1 (510 yuan / ton). At present, the overall domestic phosphate rock market is stable at a high level, and the downstream demand is normal. The transaction of Guizhou and other phosphate ore mines is good. The phosphate ore analysts of the business association predict that in July, the domestic phosphate ore market will be mainly high consolidation operation.

Yellow phosphorus, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus fell this month. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan have resumed production, but the recovery of the furnace is very limited. At the end of the month, the downstream construction started to improve, the stock of goods increased, and the supply of yellow phosphorus in the overall market tended to be tight. The price of yellow phosphorus showed some signs of rebound, but the price of yellow phosphorus had been declining in the early stage, and the decline rate began to slow down last week. Up to now, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 19200-22000 yuan / ton; The price quoted in Sichuan is about 19800-20000 yuan / ton; The price quoted in Guizhou is about 19300-19500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, in July, the cost pressure gradually eased, and the market price of phosphoric acid dropped. In addition, due to strict environmental protection and safety, the shipment in some areas may be limited, and the enterprises will give up profits to ship. It is expected that the market will be weak in the short term, or there may be a further downward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. On June 27, the price of mixed xylene was 5880 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 4) was 5920 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton or 0.68% from last week; It was 60.87% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil prices remained high, with good support, but domestic demand for mixed xylene was insufficient, with limited growth. Within the week, due to the limitation of automobile transportation in the northern region, the market turnover decreased, and the price remained weak and volatile. In terms of external market, as of July 2, the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was 780.5 US dollars / ton, down 12 US dollars / ton, or 1.51%, compared with June 25; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $801 / T, down US $5 / T or 0.62% on June 25.

In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand. U.S. crude oil inventories continue to decline. OPEC + may start to increase production in August, but no agreement has been reached on the latest policy. International oil prices are mixed. On June 25, Brent fell 0.01% to a new $0.01/barrel; WTI rose $1.11 per barrel, or 1.5%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices rose sharply this week, at 7100 yuan / ton, 9.23% higher than last week, 47.92% higher than last year. As of July 2, closing prices in Asia were $903-905 / T FOB Korea and $921-923 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fell in shock this week. On Friday (July 2), the price was 5087.27 yuan / ton, down 1.4% from last week and up 40.19% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Friday (July 2), the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 39.01% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, and the support of p-xylene is good; Downstream PX market is good, or more mixed xylene market has a certain drive. Overall, the recovery of automobile transportation in the northern region may have some support for the mixed xylene market, with the possibility of rising. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, xylene plant maintenance trends, port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline market).

Mainstream manufacturers control the rhythm of spot delivery and the impact of transportation in some regions. At present, spot supply is in short supply. Major manufacturers mainly deliver contracts and early orders, and few new orders are offered. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of July 2, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 18075 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 8.37% and a year-on-year increase of 127.07%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is around 17800-18200 yuan / ton, while the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 17800-18500 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, all the units are running stably, and the overall supply has little change. However, due to the factory’s control of the delivery rhythm of spot goods and the influence of transportation in some areas, the spot goods on the floor are in short supply. The main manufacturers mainly deliver contracts and early orders, and there are few new orders to offer. They usually wait for the anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China to offer again. Some traders have a strong atmosphere of speculation, and they have heard more than 20000 quotations.

In terms of devices, the 60000 T / a BDO load of Shaanxi Ronghe is 60%, and its downstream 20000 t GBL device is being restarted, so there is no spot price. Sichuan Tianhua BDO phase I 25000 T / A and phase II 60000 T / a units are in full load operation. It is mainly used for downstream PTMEG and GBL.

Some of the devices will be overhauled, and the factory will continue to control the delivery rhythm. The tense situation of spot goods on the floor continues, and the main manufacturers are reluctant to sell and report high. At the same time, the transmission of PTMEG, GBL and other industrial chains in downstream industries is acceptable, and Kaixiang PBT device plans to restart to support the market mentality. BDO business analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic BDO market high consolidation.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market in June fluctuated, and the spot prices of various brands fluctuated. As of July 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8600.00 yuan / ton, up 0.98% from the average price level in early June and 10.02% from the same period last year.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic (Shandong) market entered June to stop falling and pull up, followed by shock operation. During the first ten days of the year, propylene prices in the United States and Asia remained stable, with no significant impact on the propylene market. Some of them restart the production line and start to quote for shipment. But the propylene market inventory position is not high, and the international crude oil market price rise is objective, which is good for the propylene cost side. In the second half of the month, propylene upstream products showed moderate performance, with no significant rise or fall. The lower reaches showed signs of warming up, and the rising products increased. With stable supply and demand in the market and better downstream demand, the propylene market is expected to rise in the near future.

Upstream propylene market stopped falling in June, PP cost side support is acceptable. At present, the average operating rate of the industry has picked up compared with that in May. Due to the influence of the traditional off-season demand, the demand in the first half of the month is lower, and the consumption of terminal enterprises is low. Power rationing in some areas affects production, but the overall supply situation is relatively stable. In the second half of the month, the high international oil price supported the products related to the chemical industry chain, coupled with the low inventory of petrochemical plants, which were good for offsetting the bad effects such as weak demand. The price of polypropylene wire drawing products was strengthened. However, the transaction resistance of high price goods is still large, and the export market is under pressure, which hinders the rise of PP to a certain extent. At the same time, in the second half of the year, the new production line involves more production capacity, and the effect of capacity expansion may gradually appear in the medium and long term, aggravating the contradiction between domestic supply and demand. However, in the short term, the market is generally stable, or will continue to run with strong shocks.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 1, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 8716.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.58% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 11.04% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the month, the consumption of fiber PP was also weak, the profit situation of direct downstream non-woven enterprises was poor, the purchasing was passive and just need operation, and the consumption of diaper products was also at the off-season level. In the second half of the month, the proportion of fiber PP production was stable at about 9%. The market of spunbonded non-woven fabric and Spunlaced non-woven fabric industry gradually returned to stable, and the price gradually stopped falling and warmed up.

Meltblown materials, meltblown PP market in June fell larger, spot prices fell below the 10000 yuan mark. As of July 1, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 9733.33 yuan / ton. The saturation of domestic melt blown fabric manufacturing market is high. Recently, the situation of melt blown PP production enterprises leaving the market is more prominent. At present, there are few devices still in shipment. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the situation of saturated demand for medical protective equipment is relatively stable. In terms of overseas epidemic situation, the epidemic situation in some neighboring countries in Asia Pacific region of China is deep and long-term, forming a certain epidemic prevention pressure on neighboring countries and regions. During this period, the demand of overseas epidemic prevention market for oxygen generator and other equipment related products increased, and the pulling effect on melt blown PP industry was not obvious. The demand for meltblown materials is difficult to expand, and it is expected that the price will continue to be weak.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe: June domestic polypropylene market overall shock operation. In the first half of the month, the consumption was low due to the influence of the industry’s traditional off-season demand. The end users have strong resistance to the high price of goods, the goods preparation is rigid, and they need to operate carefully, and the actual trading volume is small. With the strength of upstream crude oil and the stop of propylene, the price level of polypropylene gradually recovered. It is expected that PP price will be narrow and strong in the short term.

June aluminum price platform shock

In June, the aluminum price platform was in a shock operation, with the operation range of 18300-19000 yuan / ton. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot in East China market on June 30 was 18830 tons, up 0.59% compared with the average market price of 18720 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The highest price in June appeared on June 16, with the average market price of 19003.33 yuan / ton, the lowest price on June 4, and the average market price of 18270 yuan / ton.

Based on the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton in the early year (January 1, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot has risen by 19.73%.

Overview of aluminum market

It is reported that in late May, affected by the recent regulatory authorities’ interviews with key enterprises in black and non-ferrous industries, (domestic, affected by the surge in early period of commodities, the current policy is mainly to ensure supply and stability of prices, and to curb unreasonable rise of commodity prices in all directions. The voice of policy departments has triggered the expected increase of market regulation on later policy, and the mood of commodity market is showing signs of cooling.) Domestic spot aluminum ingot prices began to decline, in the early June, a small recovery.

In late June, the State Reserve and storage information side, to a certain extent, stabilize the market.

On June 22, the state material reserve and regulation center issued a notice, deciding to launch the first batch of national reserves of copper, aluminum and zinc in 2021 in the near future.

According to the announcement, the total sales volume of the first batch of copper, aluminum and zinc are 20000 tons, 50000 tons and 30000 tons respectively. The simulated bidding time is June 30. The bidders can log in to the electronic bidding platform from 9:00 to 11:00 on June 30 to participate in the simulated bidding, and be familiar with the bidding rules and platform operation. The time of public bidding is from July 5 to 6, and the bidding period is 8:00-12:00 and 13:00-18:00 on the same day.

Recent news face

There is rumour that Russia is preparing to impose new export taxes on steel products, nickel, aluminum and copper. Aluminum Russia is the largest aluminum producer in the world outside China.

Post market forecast

Analysts of business society think that the price of 18000-19000 yuan / ton is the stable fluctuation interval formed by market game. It is estimated that the price of aluminum ingot is mainly around 18500 yuan / ton operation in the near future