According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI in East China decreased in September. At the beginning of the month, the average price of TDI market was 14333.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of TDI was 13925.00 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 2.85% in the month. As of September 30, the reference value of domestic goods with tickets is around 13400-13700 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is around 13600-13900 yuan / ton.

In September, the overall market of TDI fluctuated downward. In the first ten days, the trend was weak and stable. Although the TDI unit of many factories in the site was shut down for maintenance, the supplier’s inventory was not under pressure, and the traders intended to increase the price, but the downstream consumption of the terminal was slow, the purchase just needed to be followed up, the market trading was light, and the rise was weak. In late September, under the dual control policy of energy consumption, the downstream power and production were limited, and the demand continued to be weak. In addition, there was no significant increase in foreign trade export orders. Under the supply-demand game, the market offer continued to decline, and the market maintained a weak and stable operation at the end of the month.

The upstream toluene market first fell and then rose. In September, the price fell to 5600.20 yuan / ton and began to rebound. As of the 30th, the toluene rose to 5700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.24% compared with the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the downstream demand for toluene followed up generally, toluene declined slightly, gasoline blending and related aromatics prices rose sharply in the later stage, external news supported well, and toluene rose continuously. However, due to weak toluene market demand, negative on-site mentality, weak downstream follow-up and weak domestic spot market demand, it is expected that the toluene market will run weakly in the later stage.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the TDI market has been sorted and operated. At the end of the month, large factories have successively announced the closing price. The atmosphere in the field is mainly wait-and-see, the downstream demand is weak, and the market trading is weak. In addition, the market learned that the restart time of Canghua unit is uncertain due to steam supply problems. It is expected that the market trend in the short-term future will be stable and wait-and-see operation, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

DOP prices fell sharply in September

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell sharply in September, and DOP prices fell against the trend. As of September 29, the DOP price was 12475.00 yuan / ton, down 15.35% from 14737.50 yuan / ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. DOP prices continued to fall in September, and the DOP market went green to the end.

DOP industry chain Market

According to the price monitoring of business club, the raw materials of DOP industrial chain, phthalic anhydride and isooctanol, performed differently in September, and the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 7.93%; The price of isooctanol plummeted, down 30.9%. The proportion of comprehensive costs and the range of price changes, DOP prices fell sharply in September, down 15.35%. Overall, the market of DOP industrial chain fell sharply in September, and the market of DOP in September was obviously bad.

DOP price “cliff high” in 2021

According to the monitoring data of business society, the DOP commodity index on September 28 was 90.91, down 3.79 points from yesterday, down 19.87% from the highest point 113.46 in the cycle (2021-08-04), and up 121.03% from the lowest point 41.13 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). It can also be seen from the annual price comparison chart that the DOP price in 2021 is significantly higher than that in previous years. In most of the time, the DOP price in 21 years is twice the price in the same period in 19 and 20 years, resulting in a “cliff like” high price. In the absence of significant benefits on the demand side, the high level of DOP is more “castles in the air” and no customers pay. In the case of falling raw material prices, DOP lost the only support of high prices. The sharp drop in DOP prices in September is the specific manifestation of the “castle in the air” market.

In September, many DOP enterprises stopped production or limited production due to the double control and limitation of energy consumption. By the end of September, the overall operating rate of the plasticizer industry was about 40%, the lowest operating rate in the year. The start-up is low and the market supply is reduced, but the production of Qilu plasticizer equipment is normal, and the plasticizer inventory has a certain support for the market, and there are many DOP substitutes, so there is no shortage in the market. Moreover, the decline of DOP production reduced the demand for raw material isooctanol, increased the decline of isooctanol to a certain extent, and the decline of raw material price further stimulated the decline of DOP price.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that under the environment of dual control of energy consumption, the plasticizer market fell against the market in September, mainly due to the sharp decline in the price of raw material isooctanol, the historically high DOP lost its only support, the “castle in the air” collapsed and the DOP price fell sharply. In the future, due to the impact of energy consumption double control limit film, the operating rate of plasticizer in September was the lowest in the year. In October, the operation of DOP industry resumed one after another, the supply of DOP increased, and the decline of DOP in the future is expected to continue. However, with the increase of DOP operation, the demand for isooctanol increased, which stimulated the price of isooctanol to stop falling and rebound. DOP may resume rising due to the rise of raw material prices, but the virtual high price of DOP in 21 years is obvious, There is limited room for DOP to rise again. DOP prices are expected to stabilize after falling in October.

On September 28, the rare earth index was 600 points, unchanged from yesterday, decreased by 40.00% compared with the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and increased by 121.40% compared with the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. The price of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series has declined, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has declined by 1000 yuan / ton to 597000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 735000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 640000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 627500 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 860000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal neodymium has increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 775000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 2.695 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 2.64 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 3.445 million yuan / ton, some prices in the domestic light rare earth market increased, the recent procurement was general, the price trend of praseodymium neodymium series was stable, the price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market increased recently, the price trend of terbium series increased, and the downstream procurement was not active, Myanmar banned exports, and it is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will be stable in the later stage.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners rose sharply this week. The average price of Shandong market on September 26 was 3371.00 yuan / ton, up 4.78% from 3217.25 yuan / ton on September 20.

On September 26, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 262.19, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 291.97% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery shipped well, the supply of petroleum coke decreased, the refinery inventory was low, the downstream demand was good, the trading was positive, and the price of locally refined petroleum coke continued to rise.

Upstream: the international oil price continues to rise. The recent rise in oil price is mainly due to the slow recovery of oil and gas production in the US Gulf region. Combined with the increase of capacity utilization of refineries on the east coast of the United States to 93%, the highest since May. The continuous decline of US crude oil inventory has formed a strong support for oil price.

Downstream: the price of petroleum coke in the upstream continues to rise, and the price of calcined coke rises; Metal silicon market rose sharply; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of September 26, the price was 22930.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 38th week of 2021 (9.20-9.24), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were methanol (10.32%), dimethyl ether (8.84%) and thermal coal (8.35%). There were five commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products were MTBE (- 3.31%), gasoline (- 2.73%) and diesel (- 1.43%). Both rose or fell by 2.19% this week.

The petroleum coke analyst of business society believes that: at present, the petroleum coke inventory of the refinery is low, the resources of medium and low sulfur coke are tight, the downstream demand is good, the refinery actively ships, the downstream electrolytic aluminum price rises, and the calcined coke price rises. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may be high in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on September 26, the domestic crude benzene production price was 6451 yuan / ton, 430 yuan / ton lower than the bidding price last week, 6.25% lower than the same period last week.

Recently, the high level of pure benzene market fell, which was mainly dragged down by the downstream. Affected by the dual control policy, the load of many downstream units is reduced or shut down for maintenance, especially in East China, the recent operating rate has decreased significantly, the demand for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene has slowed down, and the purchase intention is low. This week, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene three times, a total of 700-800 yuan / ton to 7650-7700 yuan / ton. Although there is a certain demand for goods preparation near the holiday, the downstream pure benzene inventory is OK and the overall demand is general. In an environment with many negative fundamentals, it is expected that in the short term, the pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene markets will operate under pressure, and the lower downstream price will drag down the reduction of crude benzene bidding price this week. About 6450 yuan / ton is implemented in Shandong. At present, there are still many limited production and production conversion in coking enterprises, the overall supply is tight, and the inventory is low. There is still a certain demand for goods in the downstream near the holiday. It is expected that the market will operate stably before the holiday.