1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene rose this week. On July 25, the price of mixed xylene was 5860 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 1), the price was 5900 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton from last week, a narrow range of 0.68%; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 68.09%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil prices rose this week with good cost support, but due to weather and other factors, the demand for mixed xylene was limited and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. In terms of external market, as of July 30, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $812 / T, up US $12 / T or 1.5% month on week compared with July 23; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $833 / T, up US $16 / T or 1.96% month on month on July 23.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of isovirus strains dragged down the market mentality, but the inventory of crude oil and refined oil in the United States decreased, and the demand recovery was good, boosting the oil price. On July 16, Brent rose $2.23 / barrel, or 3.01%; WTI rose $1.88/barrel, or 2.61%.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for four consecutive weeks this week, with a year-on-year increase of 47.92% at 7100 yuan / ton. As of July 30, the closing prices in Asia were USD 940-942 / T FOB Korea and USD 958-960 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China fell first and then rose this week, and the price increased compared with last week. On Friday (July 30), the price was 5541.82 yuan / ton, up 2.52% compared with last week and 55.21% compared with the same period last year.

In the ox market, the ox price remained stable this week. On Friday (July 30), the ox price in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, an increase of 40.91% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, etc. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the US dollar index and stock market linkage.

The demand side continues to be tepid, the trend of crude oil on the cost side is still uncertain, and the trend of mixed xylene is expected to be deadlocked in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.

According to the statistics of business agency, as of July 30, the DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was reported as 20360 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price in the previous two weeks and 700 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of June; The price of nylon POY was reported at 17950 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous two weeks, an increase of 825 yuan / ton compared with the price at the end of June; The price of nylon FDY was reported at 20933 yuan / ton, which was the same as that in the previous two weeks, and increased by 933 yuan / ton compared with the price at the end of June. From the price trend, in early July, the nylon market rose across the board mainly driven by the cost of upstream raw materials; Since mid July, nylon prices have temporarily maintained a high and stable operation, and the upstream and downstream parties are cautious about the future market. Especially since late last decade, the upstream raw material caprolactam has made a narrow correction, the market trend of nylon industrial chain is weak, the manufacturers’ supply is stable, but there is still resistance to shipment, it is difficult to clinch a deal at a high price in the field, the demand of downstream terminal market is flat, the overall market production and sales are slow, and the market atmosphere is strong.

Nylon price chart

Upstream market analysis

The upstream raw material market of nylon is weak, which is slightly weak for the support of nylon market.

Cyclohexanone price chart

Since late July, the raw material cyclohexanone market has continued to decline. Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene has been reduced by 450 to 8150 yuan / ton. The mentality in the field is empty. In addition, some downstream caprolactam plants have not been restarted and the demand has decreased. Caprolactam first opened the decline channel. The listing price of upstream pure benzene has been reduced by 300 yuan / ton to 8450 yuan / ton twice, and the cost support surface has been narrowed, The supply of on-site goods is expected to increase significantly, the factory offer is deadlocked, and the on-site intended transaction price is also weakening. The supply of cyclohexanone increased and some factories reduced prices. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 23, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China was 10440 yuan / ton.

PA6 price chart

Recently, the domestic market of raw material PA6 continues to be weak, and the spot prices of various brands have been reduced to varying degrees. As of July 26, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 15466.67 yuan / ton. PA6 cost side support is weakened. At present, although the operating rate of PA6 industry remains at a low level, the supply side support remains. However, the demand of end users is difficult to expand, and the resistance to on-site shipment increases. There is little trading in the market and the atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still weaken in a narrow range in the short term.

Downstream market demand

The price trend of nylon remained basically stable, and the stalemate was dominated. The nylon filament manufacturer’s installation started fairly well, and the spot supply on the site remained sufficient. Although the manufacturer actively shipped, the customers in the downstream terminal field were not very popular. As the customers’ intention to take goods weakened after the price rose, they followed up more on demand, and the overall market just needed to buy was also weak; The market price of nylon cord fabric is strong and high. Although the high viscosity chips in the upstream remain stable, the cost side support is OK. The supply of manufacturers is tight in the early stage, and the supply gradually stabilizes in the near future. The downstream terminal nylon manufacturers just need to follow up. Some manufacturers start low, mainly de stocking, and the overall market remains high; The transaction of nylon staple fiber market is relatively flexible. The upstream conventional spinning chips are adjusted in a narrow range, the cost side does not play a strong role in supporting the staple fiber, the spot supply in the field remains stable, the demand in the downstream core spun yarn field is OK, but the proportion is small, the demand in other fields is general, and the actual transaction in the field has little room for negotiation, and all parties have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for the future market.

Future forecast

Overall, near the end of the month, the nylon market trend is weak, the upstream raw material market is expected to decline in a narrow range, the cost side support is weakened, the on-site supply remains stable, and the nylon terminal demand has not improved significantly. Most downstream enterprises just need to take goods, the order support is limited, the polarity of taking goods is not high, and the actual trading atmosphere on the site is flat. It is expected that the spot price of nylon may weaken in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI in East China rose in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of TDI market was 13866.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of TDI was 15166.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.37% in the month. As of the 31st, the outbound price of domestic goods with tickets is around 14300-14500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is around 14700-15100 yuan / ton.

In July, the TDI market rose as a whole, and the market mentality was mainly wait-and-see. There were two obvious increases this month. It was learned from the market news in early July that Xinjiang Juli plant was shut down, which boosted the market mentality. The offers of cargo holders mostly followed the increase, and there were few low-price offers in the yard. The downstream side mainly purchased on demand; Around July 20, the weekly guidance price of the factory was announced one after another. The goods holders adjusted their quotation according to the news of large factories. The market offer was stable and small, and the quotation of dealers also kept up with the rise. However, the downstream purchase was still weak, the enthusiasm to enter the market was general, the purchase was just needed, the on-site wait-and-see mentality, and the market situation became stable.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated, with an overall increase of 0.85% in the month, and the average production price at the end of the month was 5810 yuan / ton. In the early stage, the toluene market was driven by the rise of crude oil, the on-site supply was reduced, the focus of negotiation in the toluene market was high, and the international crude oil showed a downward trend in the later stage. In addition, the listing price of Sinopec was lowered, the market wait-and-see mentality was strong, the downstream follow-up was weak, the demand of the domestic spot market was weak, and the toluene market was sorted and operated.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the TDI market is mainly on the sidelines, the on-site trading atmosphere is light, the dealer’s market quotation is firm and stable, and the downstream follow-up is just needed. The factory listing price news is released at the end of the month, and the offer of the goods holder is stable and small. It is expected that the TDI market will be on the sidelines temporarily in the later stage and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

DOP price stops rising and wants to fall

According to the data monitoring of business society, affected by the rise in raw material prices, DOP prices rose all the way in July. As of July 29, the DOP price was 15725.00 yuan / ton, up 18.23% from the DOP price of 13300.00 yuan / ton on July 1. However, it can be seen from the DOP price trend chart that since the latter ten days, the increase of DOP has slowed down. After the 26th, the DOP price has stabilized. On the 29th, the DOP price fell slightly and the DOP line lust fell.

The situation of raw material market is surging

It can be seen from the isooctanol price trend chart that the isooctanol market rose sharply in July, the isooctanol price rose as high as 20% in July, the cost of DOP rose sharply in July, and the rising power of DOP was large. The price rise of isooctanol began to slow down in the lower reaches, and the upward momentum of DOP in the future weakened.

As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart, the phthalic anhydride market rose violently in July, and the phthalic anhydride price rose all the way in July, with an increase of 5%. The upward momentum of DOP increased, stimulating the rise of DOP.

The downstream market is under pressure

As can be seen from the PVC price trend chart, the PVC market rose slightly in July. Since late July, the PVC price has fallen slightly, the downstream demand of DOP is weak, and the downstream downward pressure of DOP is increasing.

Market overview and future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, believes that the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply in July, stimulating DOP prices to rise. However, although the downstream PVC continues to be high affected by the rise of calcium carbide, the rise of PVC price is relatively stable, the PVC cost pressure is increasing, the downstream cost pressure is transmitted to the upstream, the upward driving force of DOP is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. Overall, the price of raw materials stabilized, the rising power of raw materials weakened, the downstream cost pressure was transmitted, there was no room for the rise of plasticizer DOP, the downward pressure increased, and the desire of plasticizer DOP fell in the future.

Near the end of the month, the civil liquefied gas market continued to rise, and the price still rose. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4466.67 yuan / ton on July 22 and 4533.33 yuan / ton on July 26, with an increase of 1.49% and 4.78% compared with July 1.

As of July 26, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Automobile transportation North China 4450-4580 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation East China 4300-4430 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation South China 4470-4550 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation Shandong region 4500-4650 yuan / ton

Near the end of the month, the overall domestic liquefied gas price is still rising. On the 26th, the market price of liquefied gas in Shandong and East China was strong, and most of them delivered steadily; The overall price of South China market has increased, and the overall shipment situation of the market along the river is good, and the price has increased. Over the weekend, international crude oil closed up slightly, and the news brought positive support to the market. The inventory of most upstream enterprises in Shandong is at a controllable level and generally worry free. In addition, some refineries are still in the maintenance stage and have a strong mentality. The mainstream transaction price of civil gas in Shandong is around 4540-4550 yuan / ton. The enthusiasm of downstream market entry is fair, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is mild. Only individual manufacturers make small profits and ship goods according to their own conditions.

The recent surge in LPG futures market has brought certain benefits to the spot market. On July 26, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2109 was 4946, the highest price was 5047, the lowest price was 4918, the closing price was 4963, the former settlement price was 4972, the settlement price was 4966, down 9, down 0.18%, the trading volume was 90800, the position was 67026, and the daily position was increased by – 3421（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Although the market is currently in the traditional off-season and the terminal demand is weak, due to the low overall supply in Shandong market, most refinery inventories are at the low level, the upstream mentality is good, coupled with the high operation of international crude oil, the overall market entry atmosphere in the downstream is more positive and the price is strong. At present, there are still positive factors in the market. It is expected that the market price of civil gas in Shandong is unlikely to fall sharply in the short term.