According to the monitoring data of business society, since June, the traditional off-season of hydrogen peroxide has come, and the market has been falling continuously until August. It has fallen deeply for more than two months, with a decline of nearly 20%. On August 4, the price fell to the first line of 800 yuan / ton. The hydrogen peroxide market rose this week. As of August 9, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 813 yuan / ton, up 0.83% from the price on the 4th.

According to the weekly fluctuation chart of hydrogen peroxide in business society from May 17 to August 8, 2021, hydrogen peroxide has begun to show a downward trend since mid May. Near the end of the month, due to the weakening of terminal demand, hydrogen peroxide began to decline sharply, falling for two consecutive weeks, with a decrease of more than 4%. Since June, hydrogen peroxide has opened the downward channel, falling for three consecutive weeks, with an overall decline of more than 7.5%. In early July, the decline of hydrogen peroxide Market slowed down, falling for two weeks in the middle and late ten days, and the market rose near the end of the month. Due to the large decline in the early stage, hydrogen peroxide fell sharply as a whole. Throughout July, hydrogen peroxide fell by more than 5.6%. By August, the first week was still mainly down, down 2.81%. In the second week, hydrogen peroxide has ushered in an inflection point. On August 9, hydrogen peroxide rose by 0.83% in a single day.

On August 9, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers offered as follows:

The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Luxi Chemical is 780 yuan / ton, an increase of 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide for Hebei Zhengyuan chemical fertilizer is 800 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that in early August; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 860 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month.

The terminal demand has improved, and the inflection point of hydrogen peroxide has arrived

Since June, the performance of hydrogen peroxide terminal paper industry and caprolactam has been poor. With the advent of the off-season of traditional consumption, the price of hydrogen peroxide began to fall endlessly, falling deeply for more than two months, down nearly 20%. Although some hydrogen peroxide enterprises shut down for maintenance to limit the falling space of hydrogen peroxide, due to weak demand, after a short rise in the market, they continued to decline weakly, and were unable to recover.

Since the end of July, the terminal caprolactam market has risen, the demand has increased, the hydrogen peroxide market has risen one after another, the performance is not obvious, and it has been beaten back to its original shape after the rise. In August, the first week still maintained a downward trend. At the beginning of this week, the market of terminal paper industry was stable, the caprolactam market was high, the procurement demand recovered, the order volume of hydrogen peroxide increased, the manufacturer’s quotation began to rise, and hydrogen peroxide has reached the inflection point.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that hydrogen peroxide has fallen deeply for more than two months, the traditional peak season is approaching, the terminal rigid demand is increasing, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide will usher in a rising market.

This week’s price analysis

On August 6, the mainstream quotation of metal silicon was 16700 yuan / ton; Compared with last Friday, it increased by about 1500 yuan / ton, up 10.11% on a weekly basis and 16.24% on a year-on-year basis.

Regional 441# silicon prices on June 6 are as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 16800-17000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16900 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 16800-17000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16900 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 16500-16700 yuan / ton, with an average of 16600 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 16300-16400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16350 yuan / ton; Fujian #441 metal trading range is 15900-16000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15950 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 17400-17600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17500 yuan / ton.

On August 5, the metal silicon commodity index was 114.10, up 3.72 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 65.92% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Market conditions this week

From the market point of view, the price jumped and there was great pressure on downstream procurement. Since the continuous price rise of metal silicon in late July, merchants were bullish early this week and were reluctant to sell and store goods. However, downstream customers had to choose to deal in order to ensure normal production, so the overall trading volume decreased. In addition, the epidemic broke out in Jiangsu and other domestic places one after another. Some automobile transportation in East China refused to accept orders, which made downstream transportation difficult and increased transportation costs.

From the perspective of supply, the output increases, but it is difficult to accumulate the reservoir. In July, the industrial silicon output was 272000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 64.4%. Silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan increased production seasonally during the wet season, but the increase was lower than expected. Due to frequent power limiting accidents in Yunnan and the impact of epidemic situation, the production was unstable. In addition, large factories in Xinjiang rectified and stopped production due to safety accidents. The increase in production during the wet season was unexpected to downstream customers, and the uncertainty at the supply side stimulated the fluctuation of downstream purchasing sentiment.

Future forecast

The time for the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is uncertain. The increase in production during the period of abundant water and electricity in Yunnan is less than expected, the inventory cannot be accumulated, the downstream just needs to be purchased and the transportation is blocked due to the impact of the epidemic. Business analysts believe that metal silicon may rise in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of August 5, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 10333 yuan / ton, which was increased by 2100 yuan / ton, or 25.51%, compared with the price on August 1, 2021 (reference price of 8233 yuan / ton).

In August, a large plant in Dongying area of Shandong Province had a shutdown plan for dimethyl carbonate unit. Due to the tight supply of dimethyl carbonate, the low inventory in the yard and the reduced supply, the market price of dimethyl carbonate has been rising since the 2nd of the first month. In addition, stimulated by the spot shortage, the purchasing sentiment of downstream factories of dimethyl carbonate is positive, the downstream demand increases, the supply of large factories in Anhui is tight, and they do not receive orders for the time being. The spot tension continues to spread. Supported by the reduction of supply and the increase of demand, the market price of dimethyl carbonate has risen sharply in recent two days. As of August 5, in just four days, The market reference price of dimethyl carbonate has risen to about 9700-10800 yuan / ton, and the high-end price has reached 11000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of August, the market has increased by 2900 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, on August 5, the average factory reference price of dimethyl carbonate in China was 10333 yuan / ton, up 2100 yuan / ton, or more than 25%.

In terms of propylene glycol related products, since August, the overall domestic propylene glycol market has been dominated by stable consolidation and operation, and the ex factory price of propylene glycol in individual factories in Shandong has increased slightly. At present, the downstream of propylene glycol mainly continues to need procurement. Propylene glycol units have been newly opened by large propylene glycol production plants in Shandong. At present, the supply in the field is relatively sufficient, and in terms of raw materials, The market of raw material propylene oxide has been rising since August, giving propylene glycol cost support. As of August 5, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 16900-17200 yuan / ton, an increase of 200-500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic propylene glycol factory reference average price was 17066 yuan / ton, and the average price was increased by 466 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.81% compared with the price on August 1.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, at present, the market reference price of upstream propylene oxide is about 16400-17300 yuan / ton, which is about 300-1000 yuan / ton higher than that in early August. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of August 5, the reference price of propylene oxide is 16925 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.83% compared with August 1 (16300 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, downstream factories still maintain high enthusiasm for taking goods when dimethyl carbonate is at a high level. Therefore, dimethyl carbonate analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will continue to operate at a high level.

The price fluctuation of raw corn in the main producing areas is limited, but the price of corn in Henan Province has decreased significantly. The price of corn ethanol market continues to weaken due to weak demand. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of August 4, the domestic ethanol market price was 6682 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 3.85% and a year-on-year increase of 8.00%.

Northeast corn ethanol continues to weaken, cassava ethanol slightly follows the adjustment, and molasses ethanol prices are strong. The market transaction performance is light, and the downstream chemical industry purchases on demand. Downstream demand power is insufficient, domestic acetic acid ethyl ester enterprises operating rate slightly improved, Baijiu and other chemical demand is still not high.

In terms of raw materials, the corn market in Jilin fell in a narrow range, the corn price in Henan fell in a narrow range, and the dry cassava price in Thailand was weak, with Thailand fob250-255 US dollars / ton; The price of molasses is strong, and the mainstream transaction price of molasses is more than 1700 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic acetate Market was first depressed and then increased, the market weakened briefly, the downstream operation of ethyl acetate was low, and the demand was relatively weak.

Latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, category, price

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Guangxi region 95% alcohol 6800-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Absolute ethanol 7550-7750 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Cassava alcohol About 7000 yuan / ton

Guangdong region 95% ethanol About 6850-7050 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7650-7850 yuan / ton

Sichuan region Corn alcohol About 7550-7650 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan region Molasses alcohol 7100-7150 yuan / ton

Shandong region General level 6350-6450 yuan / ton

Shandong region Superior corn 6900-7100 yuan / ton

Shandong region Corn anhydrous 7300 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6700-6800 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6500 yuan / ton

Anhui region Cassava general About 6600-6650 yuan / ton

Anhui region anhydrous About 7400 yuan / ton

Henan region Superior 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan region Absolute ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei region General level 6800-6900 yuan / ton

Hebei region Coal anhydrous 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region Corn alcohol general grade 6200 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 6300 yuan / ton, tax included

The price of cassava is weak, and the price of corn is weak. Weak price consolidation under weak downstream demand. The ethanol analyst of business society expects that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market may still weaken slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene rose this week. On July 25, the price of mixed xylene was 5860 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 1), the price was 5900 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton from last week, a narrow range of 0.68%; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 68.09%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil prices rose this week with good cost support, but due to weather and other factors, the demand for mixed xylene was limited and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. In terms of external market, as of July 30, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $812 / T, up US $12 / T or 1.5% month on week compared with July 23; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $833 / T, up US $16 / T or 1.96% month on month on July 23.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of isovirus strains dragged down the market mentality, but the inventory of crude oil and refined oil in the United States decreased, and the demand recovery was good, boosting the oil price. On July 16, Brent rose $2.23 / barrel, or 3.01%; WTI rose $1.88/barrel, or 2.61%.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for four consecutive weeks this week, with a year-on-year increase of 47.92% at 7100 yuan / ton. As of July 30, the closing prices in Asia were USD 940-942 / T FOB Korea and USD 958-960 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China fell first and then rose this week, and the price increased compared with last week. On Friday (July 30), the price was 5541.82 yuan / ton, up 2.52% compared with last week and 55.21% compared with the same period last year.

In the ox market, the ox price remained stable this week. On Friday (July 30), the ox price in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, an increase of 40.91% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, etc. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the US dollar index and stock market linkage.

The demand side continues to be tepid, the trend of crude oil on the cost side is still uncertain, and the trend of mixed xylene is expected to be deadlocked in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.